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Thanks dave. i've been wondering what you thought about these numbers. mind boggling!

also...doesn't 600 seem low?

could be low... could be right.

reports about international are around, but I don't have specifics. And the assumption of $400 million was happening around Iron Man too... no idea yet how real that might or might not be. $600m is a moderate number. Could be $500m (but would be a real surprise) and could be $800m (also a surprise, though less of one).

yeah, way too early...but i applaud the media for showing a bit of perspective so far and not shouting Titanic and throwing those numbers around. YET...although your girl is claiming north of 400 already

500 or 600 million could be right? What pipe is being smoked here? We're currently on pace for at LEAST Dead Man's Chest domestically...$420 million. And that's being conservative at this point. Just look at the weekday numbers...the percentage drops and daily hauls are so far ahead of Pirates 2 it seems inconceivable it could fall behind Even if it's off 60%, which is wayyy over what the weekday numbers are showing, thats $290 million in the bank domestic by the end of the weekend. So you're saying 500 million worldwide is a possibility when it will already have broken...and I guarantee it...450 million by the end of this weekend?

Do you realize that the only top 10 international market it's opened in so far is Australia? (not counting Canada which is tabulated with U.S.) That it hasn't opened in a single in a single Euro country or the top non-Euro markets, Russia and Japan?

It's guaranteed to double the box office worldwide...800 million easily, and on its pace now a billion is the likely target.

For some "perspective," domestically Pirates was at $169.5 million in its 5th day of release. TDK is at $203.7 million, and is tracking 5 million ahead of it per day currently.

And to think that Warner Bros pretty much handed the producer job to Roven in 2004.

"Hey, here, wanna produce this Chuck?"

"Ok."

Awesome.

Yay for high quality film making tons of money. It's been a while. (No disrespect to Iron Man)

Roven is a producer who knows when to simply move out of the way, and from 12 Monkeys to Three Kings, he has produced the biggest films of various auteur's careers. Now if only Silver could land a hit, Warner Brothers would have their own Three Kings with David Heyman included.

And yet it never seems to occur to any of these geniuses that they could lower the risk/stress factor drastically by simply NOT SPENDING SO GODDAMN MUCH MAKING THESE MOVIES!!!

"if only Silver could land a hit, Warner Brothers would have their own Three Kings with David Heyman included."

I'm a little confused since Three Kings was a WB movie - what's David Heyman got to do with it?

Those are fairly depressing numbers.

I'm really relieved about this one. After Superman and Speed Racer, I'm sure they were wondering if it was wise to give a director so much power (and running time). Studios are going to make big mistakes now, but maybe the missteps will be "too ambitious" or "too adult." I've seen the alternative and I'll take those mistakes all summer long...

Sloanish; damn right.

Nevertheless, I do hold to the principal that these films can be made cheaper depending on the aesthetic needed to properly convey the material. Batman needs to look big. This is why the Burton films always bugged me, because Gotham was too freakin stuff. This Gotham can at least BREATHE.

So here's to more wasting of money, tent-pole needed pictures, and talent getting too much creative control. Yee haw!

EthanG, I've been wondering when someone was going to pick up on the weekday box office - it's absolutely massive. If the numbers hold (and there doesn't seem to be a strong reason that they won't), then TDK could break 300 mill US at the end of its second weekend, even with a 55-60% week on week decline in receipts. Jesus.

This is also why Harry Potter is so mighty-mighty in the WB portfolio... a wholly owned property that is also a mega-franchise.

And what is Batman? The split with Legendary was their choice. Parsons didn't put a gun to Horn's head.

Dave - do you have an overall number for the Legendary slate? It looks to be a serious rollercoaster - 300 & TDK balance LadyH2O, 10KBC, and Superman Regurgitates...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legendary_Pictures

10,000 B.C. made $269 million on a reported production budget of $105 million. Not a smash hit along the lines of 300 and TDK, but it would have come out fine for both Warners and Legendary after ancillaries.

As for TDK, it looks like it's a lock for $700 million worldwide at the very least considering its domestic trajectory and the $40 million it made in 20 territories in its opening weekend.

One last note...I promise for now on the BO. By today it'll have passed Batman and Robin and Batman Begins adjusted for inflation...already. Batman Returns is $269 million and Batman Forever $290 million adjusted....targets that should be passed this weekend.

The real milestone this film is looking to hit is the originals number...$433 million adjusted (domestic of course). I think it's going to beat it.

The numbers are amazing to be sure and it seems like it will hit 300 by the end of the weekend. My perspective comment was aimed at folks in the media that usually roll out Titanic's number and start saying it's within reach. After POTC 2's 1st weekend that kind of talk was starting. I might be crazy but if you look at some of the factors involved in TDK (Ledger's passing, the IMAX thing, etc.) there seems to be some really weird hype around this movie. Is this like some sort of perfect storm thing? I'll probably get chewed up for this but kind of similar to the convo the other day about what movie would break TDK 1st weekend number, will there ever be another Titanic BO wise?

The Dark Knight doesn't have it easy in retrospect. A week out, everyone was aiming for $100 million+, but had no idea where it would land. Sandwiched between two superhero movies, then two geek movies, and a successful counter-programmer on the same day.

Yet it will still pass $400 million in record time. Wow.

...and it will do it with a running time that is longer than exhibitors' comfort zone.

showbizdata has TDK at 18.52 for Wed and a 222 total. Geez. Let's say it goes for 13 tomorrow, it only has to do 65 for the weekend to get to 300 in 11 days. and 65 would be a drop of about 60%. I'm dying to see the weekend number.

i'm sorry, i meant if it does 13 today.

Sorry keoki, that wasn't meant to be a negative directed at you or anybody.

If that number's correct, it's just continuing its pattern. It's now almost $40 million ahead of Pirates 2, the 2nd highest grossing film over its first six days of release, behind TDK.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that it could top Indiana Jones and Iron Man at the end of the weekend for top film of the year...

no prob ethan. i didn't think it was because it wasn't written in all CAPS. i hate when these kind of numbers get started because then i get obsessed with checking sbdata and bomojo at around 2 o'clock my time. i liked mason's late night forcast but he stopped it earlier this summer.

Expect a $16 million Thursday. $75 million for the weekend is looking likely, giving it the second biggest weekend ever.

see it has to go something like that right? step brothers looks like low 20s and x-files looks mid teens. I hope it takes the best second weekend ever, it galls me to see Shrek 2 at the top of any list

i just looked at Titanic's numbers and it went 12 straight weekends over 20 mil but never over 40 once. Geez! That will just never happen again right?

Titanic had the advantage of being released in late december against a lackluster spring. TDK will have more significant competition than titanic did. However I do believe it has a shot at the all time domestic title (and I was a doubter on the size of this until about a week out).

If you look at the recent titles that top the list of quickest money makers, they dont start hitting 50% until about 7 or 8 days. Now if you take into consideration TDK has better word of mouth than most of the others on the list (mostly spidermans and the Pirate Sequels) as well as little competition for the second weekend, it will be hitting the average 50% mark with about 280 to 300 in the bank. When the box office traditionally cools again in the third week of August and this is still playing on a screen in the local googliplex I think people will revisit it again (both the fans who saw it three times the first week and the casual viewer who will have seen it once).

The Dark Knight has a shot at becoming the second biggest domestic film, but will come nowhere near the first. We are a long way off until Titanic is truly challenged.

see i think mid 400 or even 500 but after looking at the consistency that Titanic played at there is just no way. That was a freaking dreadful spring, just seeing what was in the top 5 those weekends. lots of dreck!

Titanic's record does not even count. It's a SOFT record. Thanks to the Spring releases that year as Keoki pointed out. So I am going with the possible HAMMERIN HANK of TDK over the ARTIFICIAL BONDS of Titanic.

Let me once again do this... I SAW IT COMING! I SAW IT COMING! BIG DOG... WOOT WOOT :D!

Calm down.

there's no way it makes over 80 this weekend right?

Jeff, really, you have no idea if I am excited or not. So really, your comment is uncalled for and I would hope you realize such comments will remain uncalled for in the days to come.

Then what does this mean: "I SAW IT COMING! I SAW IT COMING! BIG DOG... WOOT WOOT :D!"

?

BEING SILLY! Seriously, I do not get you, and do not get your ocd-like quest for order on this blog. It makes so very little sense to me. If you do not get that people are silly and express being silly in different ways then you. Well, really, I have nothing to do but state once again... I TOLD YOU! I TOLD YOU IT WOULD BE THE BAT! WOOT! WOOT!

Hey, it's aok with me if you're giving me permission to ignore and write off as insignificant everything you could ever say from now on. I would hope that people come here for something more than graffiti or an echo chamber though.

Let me try this analogy:

It's like being at a cocktail party, and someone suddenly walks into the middle of the room and starts saying, "The purple kite eats only chunky oatmeal", insistently, over and over again And then when you ask them what they mean, they tell you to go mind your own business.

That's what it feels like on this end.

Ahhh, but jeff, this is not YOUR cocktail party. I must not be the only one who finds your scolding just as tiresome as his caps.

Hcat: You are correct, sir.

Thirded.

(Though I'll fess to chuckling at the above juxtaposition of IO's absurdist goofiness and jeff's terse "Calm down.")

....so?

Let me rephrase that...
If I'm some pedantic dude at the party who keeps nagging people, then I strongly recommend a polite, assertive request for some kind of alteration, explaining why such behavior makes you feel less than optimal.

Also, Joe, your position in this debate is not strong, I regret to inform you.

"Also, Joe, your position in this debate is not strong, I regret to inform you."
Thats the thing. Why are we even debating web etiquette? Someone makes a post that you don't like and you comment on it and steer the conversation away from what they are saying to how they are saying it. These guys love you as their straight man and get more obnoxious just to throw pies in your face. Loud people at cocktail parties don't get quieter because another guest is tsk tsking them across the room.
Of course IOIOIOI is jazzed that TDK is scorching up the box office, finally a studio movie delivers what it should and audiences are actually recognizing its greatness. It is a huge win for a quality project. And he is hardly the only one thrilled. This whole last weekend was one big comic and movie fan orgasm. And for someone who has been wrong on absolutly everything regarding box office this summer (in april I posted that Meet Dave would outgross Sex in the City and even in June I thought Hancock would hold off TDK) I acknowledge IOIOIO's right to crow.

Fair enough, but what he's specifically crowing about is not that it's doing well.

So, he's revved up over it. He (and a bunch of other people) saw it coming and he went back and forth with David about it even after he was told the actuals would tell a different story and they did - in IO's favor.

But if it bugs you, calling attention to it only creates more of it. Just like the guy at the party who's been shooting his mouth off about how awesome Zepplin is live, gets told to quiet down, and then just shoots his mouth off about how awesome Zepplin is live AND that he won't quiet down.

Hcat is right: As with most message boards, once the thread becomes about how someone is saying something, the original thread gets lost. Let him gloat and talk about something that furthers the conversation. Unlike an actual cocktail party, you can easily ignore people on message boards without causing a further fight.

You're both right.

Hcat: Actually, I am not debating anything. I agreed with you. The last thing we need is some self-appointed school monitor sashaying in here to give us etiquette lessons, or some arrogant little twat unilaterally deciding what's proper and improper in on-line discourse. I mean, that sounds like someone who might get his face punched in at some of the cocktail parties I've attended.

You forgot 'kitty cat'.

Sorry Joe, I wasn't directing the comment to you, but to jeff. I didnt mean to say you were debating anything but trying to say exactly what you just did. Simply wanted to tell him that we did not need his scolding without becoming a scold myself.

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