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July 14, 2008
For The Record... Episode Two
5. Eddie Murphy has made thirteen movies since 2000. Only THREE have opened to less than $15 million. SEVEN have grossed over $100 million domestic and one more was at $96 million. FOUR were outright bombs... Showtime, The Adventures of Pulto Nash, I Spy, and now, Meet Dave.
In the same period, George Clooney has made fourteen movies... nine have opened to under $15 million... four have grossed over $100 million domestic… six were outright bombs.
Ben Stiller has made thirteen movies… three have opened to less than $15 million… five have grossed over $100 million domestic… three were outright bombs.
Johnny Depp has made sixteen movies… eight have opened to less than $15 million… four have grossed over $100 million domestic… five were outright bombs.
Name – titles / under $15m / over $100m / bombs
Murphy – 13 / 3 / 7 / 4
Clooney – 14 / 9 / 4 / 6
Stiller – 13 / 3 / 5 / 3
Depp – 16 / 8 / 4 / 5
Damon – 15 / 6 / 7 / 3
Pitt – 12 / 5 / 5 / 3
Hanks – 8 / 2 / 5 / 0
So… tell me… aside from Will Smith… who has had the career THAT much better than Eddie Murphy in the last 8 years? Hanks has been closest to a clear topper, but made fewer movies.
I’m not saying that Eddie Murphy is the biggest star in Hollywood right now or that he has not done some embarrassing work. But anyone stupid enough to be trying to write off Murphy's career based on one bomb and a movie that they didn't like, Norbit, but which made money should be mocked and ridiculed, no matter who they are having lunch with.
6. Paramount, as f-ed up as things are, are not losing a financing partner, as per the Financial Times story, but rather outside funding to pay for movies, most of which they do not want to fund. The inclusion of Transformers 2 or the already-shot JJ Abrams Star Trek would be bait to close a deal, not money the studio needs to have to make or release these films.
In fact, just the four films mentioned as expected to be part of the deal - Transformers 2, Star Trek, Tropic Thunder, and Benjamin Button – would, under terms suggested in the FT story (25% of production), represent an investment of $150 million of the $450 total that claims to be intended to cover 30 films.
Considering that if these four films – expected hits- generated $1 billion worldwide, Paramount would have a float of about $100 million on distribution fees alone. That would mean that Deutsche Bank would still be about $100 million in the hole after theatrical while Paramount would be in profit, as a corporation.
And that is projecting 4 significant hits!
Then you have less than $10 million per film under the rest of this package, allegedly meaning that all the films together would average $40 million or less to produce.
As I have been writing for a long while now, with DreamWorks exiting, Brad Grey will have to have remarkable success to survive. But we’ve had no indication of this likelihood to date. If John Lesher is going to do for Paramount what he did for Paramount Vantage, expect the company to have an Oscar or two in the bank and a Chapter 11 filing in the court before 2011.
Viacom and Disney are the only owners of major studios whose primary business is the movie/television/entertainment business. This leaves them more vulnerable to Wall Street's whims based on the performance of films than the other four majors.
But while Viacom is literally a company split in two, Moonves’ CBS vs Grey’s Paramount and Nick Networks, Disney is not only a focused organization, but is pushing a very specific focus more so than any other big company in town. So both sides of Viacom are more vulnerable to Wall Street trouble than any of the other majors.
My prediction remains that Redstone will be forced to either reintegrate his two halves of Viacom, most likely under Moonves, or to sell the Paramount side outright before the next few years pass. Resisting this could, as soon as 2010, force a major sell-off of some major assets from the Paramount side.
The thing is, the timing for Paramount could not be worse. Money is tightening. The value of the library assets is lessening, even as technology will lengthen the life of product. And the price of production and distribution is still going up, even as most studios are working to get out of the movie funding business in all but the most obviously viable product.
There is nothing wrong about making a lot of money on the distribution side this summer from Iron / Indy / Panda. But you can’t keep the massive infrastructure afloat when you have that kind of success and your take is $150 million. It’s on the massive hits that studios make up for the inevitable (and increasingly expensive) flops. Companies can get into the business of hitting doubles and triples financially. But there is a lot of retooling to do and there are not signs of this at Paramount.
The story today was just a minor road hazard. There are craters ahead… and none are any kind of surprise.
Posted by dpoland at July 14, 2008 08:17 PM
Comments
This is a good format, David. Like Jeffrey Wells, but you don't have to click an annoying "Click To Read More" link. He's still got you beat on random photos posted up.
Posted by: Tofu
at July 14, 2008 09:01 PM
Wells doesn't have Poland beat on jack shit dude. To each (site) his own.
Posted by: Aris P
at July 14, 2008 09:14 PM
Poland LAYING LAWS AND SHIT. Much as we like to ride him for getting hung up on the numbers game, good on him for continuing to point out these senseless, groupthink quick sound byte opinions; Murphy's "flopping" was FRONT-PAGE news on Yahoo! today. People refuse to check their facts.
BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUT why that somewhat arbitrary sampling of stars? You ask "who beside Will Smith," but conveniently omit TOM GOD CRUISE and DENZEL OWNS YOUR ASS WASHINGTON? I'd imagine they both bested Eddie in these last eight years. Or am I missing something?
Is PLUTO NASH that bad? I've never seen it but I usually go the extra mile for ROSARIO DAWSON, because she FLAT-OUT OWNS YOUR ASS.
Posted by: LexG
at July 14, 2008 11:08 PM
DP, I think you're right about people going overboard about Murphy's "lack of success". I just wish you would have supported your argument better. First of all, by my count, Eddie had 4 movies (Nash, I Spy, Dgirls & Meet Dave) open to less than $15mil, and conveniently for your argument he had a 5th movie (Showtime) open to $15.01 just barely qualifying per your criteria.
Secondly, are you being fair when you choose to compare Murphy's b.o. success to Clooney's or are you doing what you accuse other people of doing? Of Eddie's 13 movies, every single one of them was made and budgeted with the idea that the film was capable of/expected to make $100mil domestic.
Do you believe that all 14 of Clooney's movies were budgeted similarly to Murphy's? Each with a goal of $100mil+ domestically?
Perhaps it would be more logical to compare how many times a "movie star" was in a vehicle that was clearly greenlit under the assumption it could make $100mil, and how many of those films actually did so.
Eddie Murphy 13/7
Clooney 4/4
The reason Eddie Murphy is catching more crap than other actors, is because his movies that bombed were big budget commercial efforts. Good Night and Good Luck reportedly had a $7million production budget (see: craft service bill on any of Eddie's movies).
Even for Sandler (who would fit right alongside Murphy in your chart) a couple of his movies that didn't reach $100mil include Reign over Me and Punch Drunk Love -- do you believe that when these were being put together that anyone expected either to make $100mil domestically?
Posted by: Lane Myers
at July 15, 2008 12:32 AM
Well, I see Lane Myers beat me to it. Since Eddie Murphy has basically made big-budget mass-market crap for the last 8 years, it should come as no surprise when his flops are noticed more than, say, The Good German.
I'm also not sure which are Clooney's 6 out-and-out-bombs. By my count those would have to include Welcome to Collinwood, Solaris, Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, The Good German, and Leatherheads, but after that? The contenders are movies with small budgets like Good Night and Good Luck or made more than you might think, like Intolerable Cruelty's $120m worldwide gross.
This isn't to be a Clooney defense, just saying...
Posted by: jeffmcm
at July 15, 2008 12:53 AM
EIGHT YEARS:
MI:2
VANILLA SKY
MINORITY REPORT
LAST SAMURAI
COLLATERAL
WAR OF THE WORLDS
MI:3
WINNER = LEX.
RECOGNIZE, Poland. What selective logic would make you exclude THE GREATEST MOVIE STAR IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD????????????
DAVID POLAND, RECOGNIZE THAT I HAVE OWNED YOU.
Posted by: LexG
at July 15, 2008 01:02 AM
Just curious: How many people here have actually seen Meet Dave? Really, it's an amusing kid movie. I didn't expect it to post Iron Man numbers, but I thought it would at least do as well as the genuinely crummy Haunted Mansion. That it has bombed so badly is a little shocking for me. Were all the family audiences at Journey to the Center of the Earth and WALL*E last weekend?
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at July 15, 2008 01:39 AM
just to put craft service in perspective .... no movie has a craft service budget in the millions, jeez. At the most what do you spend on craft service - snacks and drinks and infrastructure - 200 maybe 300 a day tops, and add the cs salary. Even for a crew of 60 to 100 what would you spend on a two months shoot? Does a craft service budget ever exceed $25,000. Just sayin' - people always talk about it like its in the millions. Now catering, that's another plate.
Posted by: berg
at July 15, 2008 08:28 AM
I always thought it amazing that nobody gives props that since 1983, Murphy is still a star, no matter what his crappy output. People still hope for his best.
Posted by: christian
at July 15, 2008 11:23 AM
Well, Lane, I didn't count anyone's limited release openings against them as non-$15m openers... including Clooney's.
My point, from start to finish, was that I am not accusing anyone of anything... that all the dick measuring in the name of ripping someone whose movies one does not like is stupid, especially when inaccurate.
As for picking an arbitrary point, like expectations, it is trecherous. Do you know how much The Good German or Solaris cost? Flip side, Pluto Nash is still the biggest money loser in history.
Stars are paid for opening movies. Any notion that they are paid for overall grosses is silly in all but the 2 or 3 top names at any given time. Will Smith today... Cruise and Hanks in their top gun days.
All besides the point.
You can argue whomever you like... pick one... pick two... pick three... the point is, Murphy is not a dead star by any measure.
And you are incorrect that every Murphy vehicle has been budgeted to be a blockbuster. His films are still cheaper than most comedians, including Sandler. Most, other than Ferrell, have gone budget-mad. Murphy movies are not cheap-cheap, but with few exceptions, they aren't nine figures either.
Sorry, Lex... forgot Tom Cruise was still in show business.
Posted by: David Poland
at July 15, 2008 12:10 PM
Maybe your point is beside the point (yes, I know that sounds silly).
Posted by: jeffmcm
at July 15, 2008 02:47 PM
I have a new attribute for any actor who is to be considered a star. And that attribute is "bombable".
Sure, Murphy still has a lot of pull but his stars has faded somewhat over the decade. Blame both on his increasing age and the change in tastes. Also, he's definitely "bombable" in a way that I can't really see Smith or Hanks.
By the way, should the Shrek movies really be counted toward Murphy's record?
Posted by: Roman
at July 15, 2008 06:51 PM
"So I've got to ask: how much of this is fallout from the current credit crunch, and how much is fallout from the nearly certain loss of DreamWorks by the end of this year?"
Finke never seizes to amaze me. The notion that "no financial group is helping Paramount" because they don't trust them to make their own movies is downright hilarious.
Oh noes, what would they do without DreamWorks? If anything, the problem is clearly with Brad Grey and co.
Posted by: Roman
at July 15, 2008 07:14 PM
If "no financial group is helping Paramount" the reason can be summed up three ways: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Indymac Bank.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at July 16, 2008 05:47 AM
Upside: Meet Dave made more on opening weekend than Daddy Day Camp with Cuba Gooding Jr. Hazaa!
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at July 16, 2008 08:28 AM
Kamy: Yes, but on the other hand...
http://www.bestweekever.tv/2008/07/14/50-movies-that-out-grossed-meet-dave-in-their-opening-weekends
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at July 16, 2008 08:38 AM
MEET DAVE did not do well because the posters were positively lame and there was no clue as to what the film was about. It looks like they just gave up on it.
Posted by: christian
at July 16, 2008 12:47 PM
If they had stuck with the original title, 'Starship Dave', that would have given Joe Audience at least the basic concept to hang their hat on, but apparently that would have made it seem like a geeky sci-fi movie and nobody would have gone to see it. Good thing they avoided that problem!
Posted by: jeffmcm
at July 16, 2008 01:16 PM
Unmentioned so far -- I guess because almost nobody saw it and, unaccountably, some who did weren't bugged by it -- is "Meet Dave"'s shocking homophobia. They could do a whole 'nother "Celluloid Closet" about the lisping, simpering #4 character.
Posted by: chris
at July 17, 2008 09:43 AM
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