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July 4th really hurt the Friday to Friday drops for Wall-E and Wanted. Especially on the latter. I'm sure Universal is praying that it rebounds really big today, which is what happened for many of the films the last time July 4th landed on a Friday in 2003.

Another week, another 'not much to say'.

So is this a prediction that The Women will be a huge, money-wasting bomb based on...something? Or what am I missing?

I noticed that when Kit Kittredge opened in LA limited, all tickets were $20 (and came with a "free" gift). Why on earth would anyone thing it's a good idea to jack up the prices on a movie that isn't a sure thing?

Wow. TELL NO ONE opened really well. More amazingly, four of its theaters aren't in the most popular towns (for arthouse movies).
It is a great news for its distributor Music Box Films.

Based on the fact that everyone who has seen it - aside from those with vested interests - seems pretty comfortable that it's a flop, J-Mc. It's the same reason it was relegated to the junk pile in the first place.

You are adding "huge" and "bomb" to the equation. The rule of thumb on movies that find themselves in this place - whoever of whatever sex directed them or is targeted by them - is to find a nice place for the film to die without spending a ton on marketing, throwing good money after bad.

The film doesn't even have to be bad... just unmarketable. But often, they go hand in hand. Sometimes, a studio just can't figure it out. Sometimes, the movie just doesn't give the marketers anything to work with. Sometimes, it is just a small idea that stays small or gets smaller via production.

Flip side, of course, is that sometimes a movie is horrible, but has a clear audience that studios can target and succeed with... as they did with Sex & The City. The difference here is that we are talking about a title with no real following and a cast of talented actresses, not a single one of which has opened a movie in 5 years (or ever, in many cases) and who don't have TV muscle, a la S&TC or Ms Heigl.

By my count, there have been more than 15 dumped movies, released on more than 1000 screens, in 2008 so far. And I see more than 8 more coming in the weeks between Aug 22 and Sept 26, not including The Women.

Execs can be dumb and self-deceiving about many things. And sometimes, they make the wrong judgment call about a film. But on The Dumpers, they are more right than about any other category they work with. The only reason these movies get released is because of contractual and relationship obligations and, occasionally, the dying hope of a miracle.

The two reasons that The Women is getting a reprieve are: 1) Sex & The City self-delusion and 2) media pressure to which only a weak leader would respond.

Meanwhile, people are being fired so that the company can avoid spending sums like $10 million that could be used for something better than a vain whim.

And if it turns out that I am wrong about The Women, I will apologize. But even the fact that they are keeping a Sept 12 date indicates that "they" don't really see anything happening... they may even be setting the film up for greater failure and an "Toldja" back at Nikki "Watch My Old Exclusives Dissapear When They Turn Out To Be Wrong But Take Me Seriously As A Journalist" Finke. If they wanted to take a shot for real, they would push the film later. The excuse not to will be WB romance Nights in Rodanthe on Sept 26 and then the WB-chosen He's Just Not That Into You in mid-Oct.

Both films will get a multiple of Women's marketing dollars thrown at them and if the younger-star-laden Not Into You opens, it too will be "proof" that Robinov was right and Nikki was wrong... as though there was a competition... but there is a competition because of Robinov's vanity and how easily he is manipulated by nasty public language.

Clearer?

The real meat I've been staking out in the weekly BO charts is IRON MAN vs. INDY... sure, Paramount is happy either way, but I'd love to see INDY creep past IRON MAN. I don't know whether UNCREDIBLE HULK put a bad taste in my mouth for Marvel's latest crossover plan, but at least INDY is a full movie, start-to-finish, with "something for everyone" as they used to say. IRON MAN, while fun, plays exactly like the first 47 minute episode of some modern TV series... it's got the thinnest script of any recent big hit, and if you subtracted Downey's presence (and the ad-libs) and injected Nick Cage instead (which could very well have happened), does anyone think it would have bested 60% on RT?

And as far as the media jumping on "Nuke The Fridge" taking over from "Jump The Shark" in ref to the moment when a series gets off-course... man, there were moments in INDY 4 that didn't work, but that five-minute stretch in Doomtown really nailed it for me, including the fridge...

The real meat I've been staking out in the weekly BO charts is IRON MAN vs. INDY... sure, Paramount is happy either way, but I'd love to see INDY creep past IRON MAN. I don't know whether UNCREDIBLE HULK put a bad taste in my mouth for Marvel's latest crossover plan, but at least INDY is a full movie, start-to-finish, with "something for everyone" as they used to say. IRON MAN, while fun, plays exactly like the first 47 minute episode of some modern TV series... it's got the thinnest script of any recent big hit, and if you subtracted Downey's presence (and the ad-libs) and injected Nick Cage instead (which could very well have happened), does anyone think it would have bested 60% on RT?

And as far as the media jumping on "Nuke The Fridge" taking over from "Jump The Shark" in ref to the moment when a series gets off-course... man, there were moments in INDY 4 that didn't work, but that five-minute stretch in Doomtown really nailed it for me, including the fridge...

Indy has more than $150M more worldwide that Iron man. It won.

Warner Bros just decide to release PRIDE & GLORY on 10/24/2008 instead of HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU. (Warner Bros will release HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU in Feburary 2008)

Sorry, Warner Bros will release HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU in Feburary 2009 (not 2008)

In other words, Marychan, they are now dumping one female-oriented misfire so they can take the hit on their other female-oriented misfire.

Great moments in executive decision making!!!

DP, your clarification there was exactly what I was hoping for. Thank you for bringing us all on the same page. That said, I don't really trust studio execs (the same people who routinely dump or ignore perfectly good movies for not being 'commercial' enough) to be my guide to quality cinema.

"Doomtown" and "nuke the fridge" are two of my favorite things in Indiana Jones, so there you go.

Dave, when you talk about Warner's overselling movies that are "pre-sold," are you referring to Dark Knight?

I am very curious as to your latest predictions for this film - expectations throughout the web are now getting sky-high, I cannot believe that some are predicting Spiderman-level opening numbers. What are your thoughts? Do you think Warners is overdoing it? I have to say, the marketing for this movie has just been unavoidable - I figure the ad budget for this one has to be at least double what Batman Begins was.

I wonder if they are overdoing and a the "ceiling" for this kind of film cannot just be broken, who knows? I just recently said that Warners would be ecstatic with Matrix Reloaded-type numbers, but it seems that if this film does that level of business, it will now be dismissed as a "disappointment" by the media.

I think Warners is really going for it all with this movie - a true prestige summer blockbuster in the realm of Saving Private Ryan or Gladiator. They want the rave reviews, big grosses, awards-talk, everything....VERY difficult to pull off, especially for a comic book sequel.

Geoff,

I'm sure "The Godfather: Part II of comic book films" is really gonna grab the eyes of the industry come Oscar time when they're flipping through trades and reading pull quotes. And I'm not even sure if I'm kidding.
If it's half as good as the few reviews out there say it is, maybe it will become The Lord of the Rings of this year. I doubt it'd ever have a snowball's chance in hell of winning mind you, but stranger things have happened.

I'm kinda fond of my suggestion for 50 FIRST DATES: "The 'Citizen Kane' of projectile-vomiting-walrus movies."

Cadavra, my hat is off to you sir.

I never made it past the first 20 mins of 50 First Dates. It was unbearable. And I like Sandler most of the time.

50 First Dates was one of the most miserable cinemagoing experiences of my life. I wanted to cry.

I enjoyed it.

Jeffy Mac everyone. BRINGING IT ON HOME!

Geoff: This summer's Warner Bros. release slate goes TV-based, TV-based, foreign pickup, TV-based, franchise, remake, comic book/franchise, sequel, franchise/TV-based. That's including the New Line and Picturehouse product.

The only awards WB is chasing are those for hype.

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