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July 07, 2008

The Long Tail Of Bad Choices

One of the central ongoing issues of my column and now, this blog, is that choices that are made in the moment - decisions that often seem to mean little beyond the moment - can mean a great deal.

Very smart people forget this all the time. We get caught up in the moment and forget the reverberations of our ideas and actions.

I was reminded of this when I read the Wall Street Journal this morning regarding the ongoing problem of Obama backlash amongst "Hillraisers," the most muscular fundraisers for the Clinton campaign.

It would be easy enough to write this off as, first, the right wing-minded WSJ trying to stir up trouble, and second, a stunning display of myopia by a narrow band of people who can actually look in the mirror and rationalize not voting for a Democrat whose politics are within inches of the candidate they supported so vigorously.

But the real problem, I believe, was the aggressive brainwashing by the Clinton campaign that never had any possibility of "being okay" unless it led to the nomination of Hillary Clinton. This is what people were talking about when they complained about her tactics four months ago… a discussion that was reduced to “why are they trying to push me out?” and “we want every vote counted” by the Clinton campaign, when in reality, the odds of her snatching victory from the jaws of defeat were never better than 5% since late February.

There is a ton of sexism out there… no question. And there is a group of voters who will never vote for a woman candidate, much as there is a group – I would argue, a larger group – who will never vote for a black man. And the language of sexism was occasionally on the surface while the racism against Obama was almost always subtext, though the notion that the relentless embrace of Reverend Wright was not racial is absurd.

But it was the Clinton campaign’s endless, angry, self-righteous push of the “us vs them” of this campaign that gave more than a marginal life to the rage we continue to see over this issue. The Clinton camp sold this idea that they were the abused underdog… in spite of being touted and treated as the prohibitive front-runner for six months or more… in spite of raising and spending more on the primaries than any candidate ever other than the opponent, who got the money mostly from small donors and who still only spent less than 10% more than Clinton… in spite of going into the campaign as the First Family of the Democratic Party, being the Senator from one of the three most critical states to the nation, owning all kinds of advantages in the power base, and facing a first-term Senator from Illinois.

Clinton got her ass kicked and kicked hard. She lost in much the same way that Gore did in 2000. One can argue who won the squeaker of an election. But the idea that a sitting Vice President from a popular presidency with a good economy (even if trending down already) and a significant history of public service before his Vice Presidency couldn’t beat a little-known Texas governor who had a history of drug use, incompetence, and infidelity and whose father had a not-very-successful presidency… not by a little… but by 10 points or more was UNTHINKABLE. Even being close was a huge defeat for Al Gore. He couldn’t deliver Tennessee or Arkansas. Think about it.

Who knows whether the Hillraiser problem will be a big problem come November? Maybe sanity will have returned by then. I mean, really, how can any self-respecting Democrat say outloud that they would EVER consider voting Republican to put any Republican in office for a third Republican term with so much on the line… with a guy who is now pro-Iraq War, who would put more conservatives on the Supreme Court, who would continue the Bush tax cuts that every Democrat has always said was pro-wealthy, and who would try to solve the energy crisis by giving more drilling rights to the oil companies that are making record profits on rising gas prices already.

But instead… it’s all about whether a talk show host made some smart ass remark about Hillary’s “cackle” a few months ago. THAT is the biggest issue! That is insane. (Let’s not even talk about the horrible laugh when asked about her husband’s conflicts of interest… an issue never answered by Senator Clinton.)

The fight is not always just winner take all. Unless you are a dictator, people get to have ongoing opinions. When you lay down fire with one goal, collateral damage must be a consideration… because it’s not always collateral at all.

Posted by dpoland at July 7, 2008 10:45 AM

Comments

At this point, Obama's biggest problem is going to be himself. I expect little from politicians, and I do expect Obama to win, but it's wearying to see him fall back into the same old right-wing framing and vacillating as he's been doing the past couple weeks. Hence a lot of the biggest Obamaites like Kos getting pissy (after he foisted him on us) or cheerleaders like Olbermann getting schooled by Glenn Greenwald. I think Clinton supporters will get over it all just in time to help eject the GOP from the driver's seat and so it goes.

Posted by: christian [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 11:39 AM

He wants to win, and he knows the 'base' isn't big enough to do it.

But yeah, Kos got predictably pissy, what a demanding child he is.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 11:50 AM

It's been less than a month since she dropped out. Convention hasn't happened yet.

This is a non-story. It only gives people a reason to continute to dump on Hillary's campaign. She quit. She's out. She won't be VP. Why bring it up more so? Because dumping on Hillary is a very popular and easy thing to do.

Obama voted for FISA, and didn't take public financing. Those are two reversals on his part. Big reversals? No. Change my mind on the man? absolutely not. But if Hillary got the nomination and did either of those two things, What would the reaction be??

Kos definitely gets a little petulant. And I went from going to his site literally on the hour, to hardly at all checking up on it. One of my main issues from the internet "talking heads" is they get very childish whenever you ruffle their feathers.

Posted by: Hopscotch [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 12:23 PM

To be fair, the news division of the Wall Street Journal is pretty good and doesn't carry much of a slant. It's the editorial board that is full of batshit crazy right-wingers.

(Of course, there's a chance the news division will start to drift rightward now that Murdoch owns it, but I haven't noticed that happening yet.)

Posted by: Eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 12:33 PM

First of all, Hillary did not get her ass kicked.

This was a very close race and to diminish her accomplishments is just more piling on, which is the real reason her followers remain unwilling to move en masse to Obama's campaign.

I'm not saying it's the right thing to do, but it is what's happening and Obama has to reach out to them as aggressively as he has the religious right and the Southern conservative. To ignore Clinton's base while pandering to the others is a recipe for certain loss. She was far from a perfect candidate, but she is smart as hell and would've been an outstanding President (and I think she'd have a solid 10 point lead on McCain at this point).

As far as Markos goes, he has to realize that he doesn't speak for the entire Democratic party any more than diverse conservatives George Will or Pat Robertson speaks for the Republicans. His petulance is indicative of what drove many to Nader in 2000.

Posted by: hepwa [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 12:36 PM

Kos is the biggest phony in the leftist blogosphere. Like a few former Republicans, he still has a love for authority as evidenced by the way he lets his diarists run off all those that oppose the ever-changing rules of the site. His political commentary is smug and childish. And his pimping Chevron on his site was repulsive.

And David, how did Clinton get her ass kicked in California, New York and all the other states she won? That's pretty revisionist.

Posted by: christian [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 12:59 PM

Clinton losing at all was "getting her ass kicked." See: use of Gore for comparison.

And you know, I am sick to death of any acknowledgement that Obama won and Clinton lost being angrily pointed to as "piling on" or misogyny or whatever.

This whole piece said what I feel... that "real reason her followers remain unwilling to move en masse to Obama's campaign" is that they were brainwashed by the Clinton campaign into believing that she could only lose by force of evil, whether that evil was media or sexism or elitism or whatever was convenient that week.

Therefore, sexism was worse than racism... even with women as a majority. The media was harder on her, no matter how long they said she was unbeatable or how long they brutalized Obama with Wright or "clinging." And the kid raised by a single mother and his grandparents was the elitist while the $100 million woman was Mother Earth.

I mean...

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 01:16 PM

You are right, Poland, of course. Not voting for a Democrat or voting for a Republican because your favorite candidate lost is wrong.

It's wrong because it is your responsibility to pick the lesser of two evils (right?) Two quote another blogger on this issue "I'd rather vote for Mickey Mouse if he was a democrat". This is what you do, right? Here are those reverberations again.

Except that there are OTHER reveberations two. By doing this you are re-inforcing the system. You keeping it in place. You shutting the windows and keeping the fresh air OUT. And don't tell me that's Obama because that is not quite it.

This is why Bush won. The exact same reason. And why he lost Tennessee and Arkansas too. Because people do what they have to do.

And this is why you keep getting crappy candidates, David.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 01:56 PM

DP says, "the notion that the relentless embrace of Reverend Wright was not racial is absurd."

But if his mentor, who he claimed for a while he could not disown, makes racist statements, then race has already been made an issue in the worst way.

See if you can find the racism in the following quote.

The pastor also said: “The government lied about inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color. The government lied.”

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/14/obamas-spiritual-adviser-questioned-us-role-in-spread-of-hiv-sept-11-attacks/

Posted by: R Scott R [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 01:59 PM

Wrong.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 02:02 PM

You can say it's not piling on all you want, but what you're saying reflects much of what the left-leaning blogosphere has already said (that Hillary supporters are grasping for excuses about her loss). And to her supporters, that is piling on.

I understand that you're sick to death of people pointing out (correctly) that it is piling on, so why write the post? How do you think its going to be interpreted?

I'm an educated guy who watched this race very closely and supported Clinton because of her positions and history. It is completely insulting to suggest that Clinton's supporters haven't shifted allegiance because we've been brainwashed.

You write your opinion and give us the space to respond (appreciated), but don't presume to understand the collective mind of Hillary's supporters.

Posted by: hepwa [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 04:22 PM

Hopscotch: go read Obama's entire statement about public financing. Go read into it before declaring NOT TAKING MONEY FROM THE GOVERNMENT... A FLIP-FLOP! Seriously, McCain has been broker than a joker for months. Let him suck of the government tithe. Good for him. We should all be so proud.

Also, really, who cares what a Hillary supporter thinks at this point? They are a non-entity and have very little choice. What exactly do you want Obama to do? Focus on women right now? It's not really feasible.

He has to go and try to reach these other groups. If he can get them on board. He's on his way to having more of a base than McBush. If not, then, he's bollocked.

He's at least trying something new.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 04:55 PM

"Also, really, who cares what a Hillary supporter thinks at this point? They are a non-entity"

Not helping.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 05:15 PM

I know it comes across as snippy, but it's an honest assessment at the present time. Who are they going to vote for this November? They guy who most likely is for them or the other guy, and his 100 year war?

When he gets the convention. There and then, will Mr. Obama have to come correct with the Hillary supporters. Who most definitely will need some face time after the Olympics.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 05:24 PM

...Or he could start building those bridges and not waiting until it's too late (which fortunately he has been doing).
He's running a multi-faceted campaign, part of which is to appeal to voters in places like Montana and Georgia, but the other part has to be to shore up the base and increase turnout beyond 2004's figures.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 05:34 PM

Good lord. I really needed to preview that last post. Let's do some DOUBLE-POST editing!

THE GUY who will most likely give them what they want in the Fall, or the guy with the 100 years war?

When he gets to the convention and so on.


Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 05:36 PM

"And the kid raised by a single mother and his grandparents was the elitist while the $100 million woman was Mother Earth."

Apples and oranges. Obama-the-child vs. Hillary-in-her-sixties is an invalid comparison when judging elitism. Obviously.

Let's be fair: an Obama loss (if that happens) will be blamed on racism as or more readily than Hillary's loss was blamed on sexism or whatever. There will always be loud liberal voices that deflect responsiblity for a loss, be it "selected, not elected" or "swiftboated". Gore lost because of Gore. Kerry lost because of Kerry. Hillary lost because of Hillary. If McCain loses, it will be because of McCain. If Obama loses, the temple veil will rip in two, and darkness will consume the land.

And I get the feeling in many of David's political posts that he's aggressively dismissing what he secretly fears.

Posted by: mysteryperfecta [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 7, 2008 06:25 PM

You nailed it.

Yes, there was sexism in this race, but HIllary loss can directly be attributed to her terrible strategy. In particular, her decision to skp the caucus states put her in a hole which killed her campaign long before she actually acknowledged it was over.

To say sexism was a major reason for her loss is either delusional or a denial of personal responsibility.

It's a step back for women for a woman to blame sexism for her own mistakes.

Posted by: katsat [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 8, 2008 03:19 PM

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