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What happens to Downey's Oscar play now? This was the safe movie everyone was going to rally around to reward him for his extraordinary year, no? I'm glad the TROPIC THUNDER campaign will now have to begin in earnest.

It is clear that Paramount is more interest in making money (or is it cutting loses) than chasing Golden Statues in prestigios but non-essential categories. Maybe Paramount decided the field it too crowded.

The Soloist seems like the perfect March fodder anyway. A story of hope and transformation just in time for Spring. And here it will have a lot more breezing room here than in the late Fall.

And as for Downey, what Oscar play? They've been talking about his Oscar chances ever since the early Iron Man days as if the guy has some sort of a claim on a statue due to the film's performance. And if not Iron Man, he'll surely get it for Tropic Thunder... and if not for that than surely he'll get it for the Soloits, right? Cause he has to get it... Ridiculous.

Needless to say all of this was said by people far removed from reality (for the most part).
In any case if performances are really great people will talk about them with or without the Award Ceremonies.

I also take The Defiance's shifted date as a vote of confidence by Paramount. More and more I get a sense it's the movie to watch.

It's official...with "The Soloist" out of the way, this is the worst year for film in memory.

TDK is locked in!!!!

"These moves join The Reader and Valkyrie as product being moved around because of studio finances. Hard times. "

Yes and No, had The Reader been finished early there would not have been talk about it being moved in a first place. Certainly Rudin would not have objected.

The same, to a more limited extent, may apply to Valkyrie's original summer date.

Also, I like how the first thing you see when you visit DW's offcial site is a huge banner for "The Soloist" along with the movie's trailer.

The wheels sure turn slowly. I wonder how it would be before they pull that down.

So, is Defiance actually supposed to be good? It looks terrible.

It's by Ed Zwick, so I'm sure it'll be hyped and ultimately disappoint except for a few technical Oscar nods and a supporting act nom for Schreiber or Bell.

I'm glad stuff like The Soloist is moving to February. Sure, it looks like crap, but it's good to see mainstream adult-oriented fare being released earlier in the year instead of being haphazardly shoehorned into the final month of the year.

Personally, I thought Defiance was a strange mixture of forced sentimentality, vaguely Holocaust-related melodrama, and action sequences; not surprisingly, it didn't set well with me. It has Daniel Craig, though, so the studio is going to push it regardless.

Jamie Bell and Mia Wasikowska - two reasons to see Defiance. Both are going to be around for a veeeeerrry long time.

"...a strange mixture of forced sentimentality, vaguely Holocaust-related melodrama, and action sequences..."

That could describe most Edward Zwick films. Replacing Holocaust where applicable, of course.

Roman - I have no idea where this idea came from... The Reader in 2008 was always an embattled idea.

Defiance - Whatever the film ends up being, the studio is confident enough to open it up to critics at AFI, so it will make its own soup long before many of the other contenders.

Tropic Thunder - Who is kidding whom? They have a better shot at getting Downey nominated for HFPA in Iron Man in the comedy category than for Academy members over 50 to even watch the entire DVD of Tropic Thunder, a movie that - besides sucking - is a box office loser.

Really, Downey has almost no shot of an Oscar nod this year now. Next year, he will have two shots again... and may well get it for something lighter, like Sherlock Holmes.

And literally, within a minute of pushing "post," the phone rang with the leader of the "Downey for Tropic Thunder" parade calling... not in response to this post... but still, very, very funny. (Sadly, funnier than the movie.)

Again, love Downey. Should have been nominated for Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang or at least have gotten a surprise win at LAFCA of NYFCC. But tropic Thunder? It will take a magical tsunami to get Academy members to overlook the movie and just award the beloved Downey.

"Tropic Thunder, a movie that - besides sucking - is a box office loser."

I'm biased by not thinking it sucked, and it certainly is an underperformer based on its budget and expectations - but I still see it playing in theaters, long after other movies released at the same time or later have vanished.

While I may have really enjoyed "Tropic Thunder" and don't think it sucked, I can't quibble with someone's opinion.

However, box office is a bit of a mixed bag. It certainly lost money for the studio, but I hardly think an R-rated comedy making over $100 million and out-grossing its chief similar competitors, "Pineapple Express" and "Step Brothers," can qualify as an outright bomb.

If Pineapple Express grossed $25 million, would you consider it an outright bomb? That is the analogy, though actually, it is too generous to Tropic Thunder, since at $25 million domestic, it would still have had a shot at profitability.

Pan, I think the conparision you were looking for is Zohan, which cost about the same and played to a similar audience.

I think the term "box office loser" is the problem. Intended or not, it suggests that the public rejected the film. $100+ million in domestic ticket sales suggests otherwise. I suppose Dave means that the film is perceived as a loser by Academy voters, who are perhaps more likely to know the cost-to-profit ratio.

I liked "Zohan" better than "Pineapple Express" or (coming in a distant third for me) "Thunder."
But Downey's perf definitely deserves some Supporting Actor love at awards time. The Kline/"Wanda" comparison remains a salient one.
Especially since the stodgy Academy grayhairs won't be able to recognize him for "The Soloist," a movie I'm sure they'd be a lot more comfortable with.
The thing I'm most bummed about is "Lovely Bones" being pushed back to Xmas 0-frigging-9. Admittedly a March release seemed odd (when was the last time a movie as ostensibly "important" as "LB" opened so early in the year?), but I think it would make a fantastic summer release since it's as pre-sold a commodity (thanks to the book and Jackson) as any comic book superhero flick.

No, Yancy. I mean a movie that cost over $100 million to produce grossing well under $200 million worldwide. I mean a movie with hip stars who worked on publicity for months and a huge budget doing Step Brothers business.

The only place that TT is seen as anything but a flop is amongst those who like it a lot... which has nothing to do with whether it's a flop.

And Wanda was a very, very adult-friendly movie... I mean mom and dad, granny and grandpa. It was old school. Tropic Thunder is not.

DP, I think you're still applying an overly harsh set of criteria to this movie because you personally didn't like it. Ignore the budget (yes, I know, that's one of the primary criteria you're using) and you have a movie that has held up well after a curiously soft opening. Just on the level of the opening-weekend multiplier (4.3), it has performed better than Hancock (3.6), Wall-E (3.5) Kung Fu Panda (3.5), Iron Man (3.2), or Indiana Jones (3.2).

(countdown to 'Irrelevant' dismissal, 10, 9, 8...)

Let me emphasize, I'm mostly making a semantic point. Label the movie a 'disappointment' or a 'underperformer' if you want, and you have no argument from me. But 'flop' is basically the same as 'bomb' and Tropic Thunder was no Speed Racer.

They should never nominate anyone or anything from a comedy. Ever.

And "Tropic Thunder" has roughly the same Oscar merit as "Love Guru."

You're an idiot, Lex.

No, I'm awesome. But that's beside the point.

For better or worse, the validation of OSCAR carries with it the connotation of sociopolitical or historical significance.

With few if ANY comedies have. And yes, you can say, "Well, what about expertly made crime flicks like Departed and Silence of the Lambs" which have won but might not be a scorchingly deep thematic examination of the world at large.

But in those cases we're talking about the extreme, exquisite craftsmanship of a world-class filmmaker, even if it is essentially pulp material.

You rarely if EVER get ANY of that from a brightly-shot, 1.85:1 framed, sitcom-looking comedy. Something like "Tootsie" is the obvious retort, or some old Billy Wilder movie. Again, those are brilliantly crafted movies by truly exceptional filmmakers. And they have at their heart essentially serious issues.

When I say "comedy," yes, I'm saying unless they make it a separate category, I don't need "home skillet" lines or BEN STILLER MUGGING LIKE A FUCKING BUFFOON up there sharing the stage with Daniel Day Lewis and Steven Soderbergh and The Coens and Brolin and Bardem and Emily Watson, etc.

Idot... i didn't call it a bomb. And in my first comment, I didn't even bring up the word "flop."

Sometimes, you guys like to argue just to hear yourselves.

Zohan was a miss too. So was The Incredible Hulk. So was The Mummy. So was Narnia II.

Do you think that people think of Troipic Thunder as a hit? If not, you're just jerking off by arguing a point you don't really believe. And if you do... well...

Thanks for your once-daily dosage of non-bullshit. So 'brilliantly crafted movies by exceptional filmmakers with essentially serious issues at heart' are allowed to contend for the Oscars. What you're basically saying is, 'They should never nominate anyone or anything from a stupid movie'. Wow, way to go out on a limb by calling for the Oscar voters to ignore Dane Cook - who I thought you liked?

OWN McDouche, Poland. OWN HIM.

Lex, I need to strangle you. How can we arrange this?

DP: First, you need to use spellcheck more often. Second, as I stated in my earlier post, I'm talking about the connotations of your words. What are your criteria for calling a movie 'box office loser', if it loses $100 million or if it loses $.05? I never argued that TT is a winner, but I think it has to be seen as closer to a movie that'll break even after home video. Again, this is all about criteria and standards, and I think by using the terminology that you're applying, you basically devalue the language. Again, 'disappointment', 'underperformer', no argument.

Since those other titles were raised, I'd call Zohan a slight underperformer, since it looks like it's still a profitable movie even if it did less than most Sandler titles have; Hulk and Mummy as 'minor flops' because they lost money; and Narnia too. None of those are out-and-out bombs, I would say, as the roundly rejected Love Guru or Speed Racer were.

DP, I thought you were the guy always looking for shades of grey instead of these mind-blurring binary oppositions.

You are the one creating the bullshit semantic argument, J-Mc... just to see your words in e-print, apparently.

I was in the shade of gray... and you dragged it into something perversed that was never the point of the conversation.

You keep calling things, "bombs." I didn't.

Sometimes you're like the guy in the asyluym in movies walking in a dark circle, mumbling.

Well, let me know when you actually read what I wrote.

OWNED.

Lex, why do you actively seek to regain the mindset of a 12-year-old? Is that when you peaked?

I don't understand why someone with three degrees would consciously choose to behave like a petulant toady, except as escapism.

Anyway, I think anyone who bothers to read the whole thread above here will see that I make perfect sense, and that if Poland didn't come in hating me, he'd see my point.

But wasn't the point of Downey Jr in The Soloist that it was the easy option to reward him with a nomination for that as a representative of the big year he had. Without The Soloist he merely had two movies out and that's hardly something that will have people desperate to reward him. And unlike Johnny Depp with Pirates, Downey has been nominated before and has been in the wilderness for a long time so, sure, Iron Man was huge, but they're not going to nominate Harrison Ford as congratulations for having a movie make money. The Soloist was the safe option to reward Downey for having three strong perfs, without it Downey's 2007 isn't any more impressive than Shia LaBeouf's (a perfect example, actually, as he too has had a $300mil blockbuster and a $100mil action pic this year).

Since when does box office have anything to do with Supporting Actor categories anyway.

To be fair, I don't think Alan Arkin, George Clooney, or Tim Robbins would have won in recent years if their movies hadn't made decent returns, box-office-wise.

what about marissa tomei? she won for her very appealing comedy perf in 'vinny'...i can't actually remember what comment that pertains to but what the hell.

movieman: esp. as 'bones' is likely to be finished by year's end '08

But Tomei was the only American nominated, remember. How else to explain an actually funny comedic turn winning an Oscar? HOW ELSE?!

I totally agree, Leahnz. Of course, you could have said the same thing about "Revolutionary Road" which was shot in the summer of 2007 and isn't opening until the final week of '08.
Very frustrating.

Don't kid yourselves folks, Downey was brilliant in TROPIC THUNDER but the film *was* an expensive misfire if not a downright flop.

Perception matters to Academy nominations... always... whether you like it or not.

And no, J-Mc... don't try to McCain me... I didn;t come into it hating... you just decided, as you so often do, to aggitate over nothing because you have nothing better to do. When you add something of value, I am as pleased as anyone else in here.

very frustrating indeed, movieman!

('lovely bones' is far more visual-effects laden than people might suspect; between post for 'bones' and the mind-boggling minutia of the cgi for 'avatar', the weta machine is firing on all cylinders, to put it mildly)

kam, i surely don't know how the academy in all their fuddyduddyness managed to get it right for a change, but i think tomei is utterly priceless as 'ms. vito'! in a role that could have been one-note, stereotypical and possibly even annoying, tomei is endearing, funny and delightful.

"Downey's 2007 isn't any more impressive than Shia LaBeouf's (a perfect example, actually, as he too has had a $300mil blockbuster and a $100mil action pic this year)."

Word. That's a very true statement.
But don't forget that Downey's age and his comeback status plays into people's perceptions.

that, and the fact that downey jr is a god. i'm very fond of shia but he needs to marinate for quite some time before achieving god-like status

But, Roman, The Soloist was part of the comeback. Without it he had a good year like many others. It'll be harder to get Oscar members to nominate something like Tropic Thunder than it would've been to nominate The Soloist.

Leah, I can never quite understand why Downey Jr is a "god" care to elaborate?

"But, Roman, The Soloist was part of the comeback. Without it he had a good year like many others."

And why is this a but? What I had was a straightworward comparison between two Actors with one hit movie and another relatively big grosser (though only Disturbia was a success). And then I still gave Downey the relative lead due to his age and "troubled" history alone.

The Soloist is just a cherry on top.

Point is, the average Joe on the street woudn't even know about the Soloist. It is we, who are in this game and obsess about Oscar chances for this has the most meaning. Who knows, maybe the Soloist is a stinker and all this worrying was for nothing ;) ?

ha, simply because i worship at downey's alter, kam, one of several gods and goddesses in the theatrical church of leah!

no, seriously, perhaps love for downey has an age component; he's just a wee bit older than me and i feel like i grew up with him (much like my beloved river, who was a bit younger than me). i've seen most of his movies at the time of release, let's see, 'weird science', 'the pick-up artist', 'back to school', 'less than zero' (where my love for robert truly cemented)...'chaplin', 'soap dish', 'only you', 'one night stand' (lurve him in that), 'the singing detective', 'wonderboys', 'kiss kiss', 'a scanner darkly', 'zodiac', 'iron man', 'tropic thunder' (i know i must have left heaps out)...a cornucopia of robert downey goodness throughout, even if the movies aren't always great.

he's been around the block many times and in spite of terrible personal turmoil, addictions and even imprisonment, he has managed to come out the other side seemingly healthy and happy and better than ever, having turned out consistently first-rate performances for decades with his natural talent and sublime range, depth and undeniable charisma! (undeniable to me, at least!) plus he's still in his early forties, which bodes well for rdjr, long may he reign.

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