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November 06, 2008

How Patrick Goldstein Thinks

I found his blog entry this morning illuminating.

As usual, the naked emperor-in-his-own-mind is making pronouncements from his broken down soap box, a blog, about the horrors of "bloggers."

"Anyone who doesn't believe that the Oscars haven't been thoroughly hijacked by a gang of daffy, clown-suit-clad Oscar bloggers making endlessly moronic best picture predictions just hasn't been paying attention."

As this painful issue often inspires in him, Patrick is off on a McCain/Palin style rant of fact-free bitter slamming the details of which he would condemn with a similar fury if confronted by them in one of them thar' Oscar blogs.

Does Patrick really think that “the Oscars haven't been thoroughly hijacked?” I don’t think so. I think he feels that his annual Oscar columns, now seen as one-day-and-bird-caged in the grotesque wave of endless chatter about Oscar, online and off, have been devalued and thus the role of “responsible journalists” like himself has been hijacked.

He’s wrong, of course.

First, he was never very insightful to begin with. Give me the albatross of Phantom around my neck and I can defend it, even though I shouldn’t. But Spanglish? Ouch.

And if "Oscar boggers" had hijacked the Oscars, we/they would have an awful lot of power, no? He can't really mean that.

And does he really think the endless best picture predictions are moronic? Check back when he posts his own and the match at least 3 of 5 with what has been this “moronic” collective wisdom for a couple of months now.

I think we can all agree that it has become too much. But you don't have to follow everything. God knows, I don't. And those I don't read very often won't let me forget what an elitist jerk I am for not digging into every nook and cranny of the web for today's insight. Oy.

But this is where Patrick really exposes himself… because it’s not just him protecting his turf (which he really, really needs to)… it shows how narrowly he has come to think.

Does that really mean that after they're dazzled by "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" or enraptured by "Slumdog Millionaire," that they'll react by saying -- try to hear the robotic tone of this voice in your head -- "I know that was a wonderful movie, but I must remember there are more serious matters in the world than a wonderful cinematic experience. I must vote my political conscience during this important Oscar season."

Uh, no.

And no one has said that but you.

I am sure that if you had written what Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley and, indeed, I had suggested about the relationship of Prop 8 and/or the presidential election, you might have meant it as you mockingly wrote it.

I can only speak directly for myself, but I think it is fair to guess that the other two (and any others on our “moronic” bandwagon with this idea) agree that, 1) No one is talking about Milk winning Best Picture because of Prop 8, and 2) No one is suggesting that more than a very narrow swath of people will discount other movies of great quality to embrace another based exclusively on some bent idea of politics.

Perhaps I have been spared Patrick’s WOOD (Wrath Of Our Day) because I actually feel that Slumdog Millionaire's positive nature and movie-movie excitement has a real chance to win the day (having not seen Ben Button or grovelled at Fincher's feet like some "real" "journalists"). Again, for me, none of the prognostication right now is about who is going to win… until some freak occurrence like a performance that feels like it can’t lose (see: Charlize Theron).

But equally wrongheaded of Patrick is the argument that no one votes our of something like political conscience. That’s just untrue. And it doesn’t make them robots.

As shown in so much of his coverage, Patrick has become the John McCain campaign of movie journalism. He is forever focused on the base, but can’t see that there is a whole world of different ideas out there… some of which suck… some of which are brilliant… some of which are completely beige.

Jews do vote for “important” films about jewish issues. Gays do vote for “important” films about gay issues. Not every jew or every gay person. But yes, many do and many will. The question we “morons” try to figure out is how strongly those voting blocs might feel and in turn, how big they are.

There are jewish-themed films this season that absolutely will not be serious Best Picture contenders. For one thing, there are three, with The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, The Reader, and Defiance (in order of release). But for another, no, jews will not simply vote for anything about sympathetic jews. But don’t believe for a second that we are not paying more attention to those films, that they are not in the Oscar race in part because of that, and that if rejected, it will because they weren’t good enough, not because – as happens to so many films – they can’t muster enough people to realize that they exist.

As for the specific of Milk… the gay percentage of members of The Academy, whatever it is, is not likely to be enough, in and of itself, to give any film a Best Picture nomination. However, like blacks for Obama, they will be a key constituency for that film to have any chance to get a nomination. As in the presidential race, the issue of an enthusiasm gap is very, very real in the Oscar race… probably more so than in national politics.

There was a question a few weeks ago about how Milk would play with gay audiences. If they were just 50/50 on it, it would probably be in awards season trouble. The Prop 8 situation not only repoliticizes the movie in a very intense way, but the specific storyline being so reflective of the events in the film make Milk even more accessible, not only to gay audiences, but to all audiences.

And, if Focus handles it right, the Prop 8 situation will narrow the enthusiasm gap for a film about a gay man coming out of the closet 40 years ago, moving to San Francisco, becoming a local pol, wining some fights, and being killed in an act of private rage 30 years ago. What was a period bio-pic is now about what is happening TODAY. And that will inspire a lot more people to see it, whether in theaters or in Academy households, putting the DVD in the machine.

And from there, it’s all about the movie.

If the movie is not worthy, it will not get support.

But if the movie is worthy (and I would say that it is a masterpiece of a moment, writ small, as is Van Sant’s way), it will have a real chance.

And when Academy members make their nominating votes and have to make a list of five films, they will consider everything. If they feel Slumdog and Button are locks and Milk is their third favorite film, som might well put Milk in the first slot, followed by the other two, to give it a better chance of being nominated. If Milk is one of a few films that they are not 100% on, the politics around Milk may give it an edge in pulling it out of that pack… as might the Penn performance, the period element, or some other thing we aren’t thinking of. And vice versa, by the way. If someone thinks Milk is just a gay rights polemic of some kind or that Penn’s performance is all there is to watch in the film, they will downgrade it.

But we don’t all think like you, Patrick. Sorry. Honestly, I seem to recall you having a broader mind a few years back. But lunch by lunch with agents and studio execs and hack producers trying to get you to peddle their wares, you seem to have forgotten that ideas do not live and die in your cul de sac… except when they are in your word processing program… you BLOGGER!

Posted by dpoland at November 6, 2008 12:40 PM

Comments

"There are jewish-themed films this season that absolutely will not be serious Best Picture contenders. For one thing, there are three, with The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, The Reader, and Defiance (in order of release). "

David, dare I say it, but it is exactly these kinds of comments that prove that Goldstein actually has a point? Not about bloggers hijacking the race, but that other point, more subtle one that I will not say here?

For one thing, you are grouping three different films together under the same umbrealla of not being serious BP contenders. Just because they are three "Jewish movies" (and let's just admit that in case of the Reader, and hey, even in case of the Boy, it's a bit of stretch), doesn't mean they belong under THAT umbrealla.

And you are doing something very sly here too - no, of course The Boy in the Striped Pajamas isn't going be a player there, duh. But the others, even if cards are stacked again them (and this is where you are being sly) shouldn't be ABSOLUTELY nixed yet.

Yes, Defiance has the issue of the release date against it and it's doubtful Paramount will do much to promote it, but the issue of the film's quality is still there. You haven't seen it yet, so I find it rather cheap that you are willing to
offer it up as a sacrificial lamb, for the sake of increasing the dramatic power of, what appears to be, just a statement.

(And I admit that I say this as someone who cannot wait to see this film.)

Same for the Reader, again, troubled, troubled, won't finish on time, not high profile, the issue of Kate, etc, but why bother?

(That said, I admit that I didn't like the trailer)

Just like you said, just because the movie has certain themes doesn't mean certain groups will vote for it. It's an axiom that needs not to be proven, I think.

I also find it amazing that you are willing to deny the fact that bloggers had an impact on the Awards game. Sure, hijacking is too strong a word but you, of all people must know that studioes are planning their FYC somewhat campaigns differently and by ads in different places. Places, like Oscar prediciton sites. Yes, it's only a fraction of their overall spendings but does it not mean that they think that people, VOTERS, are reading those sites.

Especially since you are saying that his column "have been devalued". What is the reason for it then?

It is no secret that a lot of Academy Members are pretty sketchy when it comes to choosing who to vote for in terms of all the categories on the ballot. Just the fact that these things are out there, as opposed to the decade ago when they weren't changed things.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 02:15 PM

Roman -

I have to take some responsibilty for writing something that could be misinterpreted as you did. I did not mean to say that all three films were out of contention, but rather that there were three films with jewish themes and not all three could get in.

AND - I did not say that bloggers had no impact on the season. You are overstating my comment. To say we hijacked it is to give us WAY too much power... and Patrick would never agree with that anyway.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 06:29 PM

"I have to take some responsibilty for writing something that could be misinterpreted as you did. I did not mean to say that all three films were out of contention, but rather that there were three films with jewish themes and not all three could get in. "

Well, that certianly explains it. I'm laughing now but looks like I was triggered by something that wasn't there. I certainly can't aruge witht that renewed statement.

As for the Proposition 8, I do not believe the early release date would have had much of an affect on it's passage during the pre-awards season. For one thing, I have a hard time picturing a lot of older conservatives going to see the film in the first place and a harder time still thinking that a single movie (masterpiece or not would have changed a lof of minds -thousands worth, though I admit every little bit helps). If the movie was released during the awards season, however, the extra buzz around the picture and continuous disscusion of the topics would have both encouraged people to see it and kept the movie's issues on their minds.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 07:02 PM

By the way, is 'Milk' a Jewish movie now too ;)?

/Sarcasm

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 07:05 PM

sorry if i'm repeating myself but i actually do think an earlier release of 'milk' would have had an effect on the passage of prop.8.....not because of the people who would or would not have seen it but because of the huge amount of ink it probably would've generated because of the parallels between prop.6 and prop.8 and the whole 'history repeating itself' thing......
people not inclined to see the movie wouldn't be able to ignore the coverage.....
just my opinion...i'm sorry it didn't see an earlier release but there's no sense crying over.....no, i just can't.........

Posted by: scooterzz [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 08:32 PM

I'm sure an earlier Milk release would have made some positive difference, but (a) the vast bulk of its audience would be voting no on 8 anyway, and (b) the vote margin is about 500,000 at this point, which is quite a lot of votes for a single indie movie to change in one state.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 08:46 PM

Speaking of THE READER, it looks like Kate Winslet will do press for this movie; at least she does talk about this movie in the newest issue of VANITY FAIR....

Posted by: marychan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 09:14 PM

While I don't think bloggers "hijacked" the Oscars, I would say that Oscar voters are more careful about their picks since the Crash backlash. And how do they be more careful? They pay attention to the interwebs, even Rotten Tomatoes. Think about it, how BP many nominees last year got below 90% on the tomatometer? Only Atonement, which was the prestigious war movie. In 2006, the only one was Babel, which is at 68% right now, but I assume was much higher on release.

This is a big difference from 2005, when Munich had 77%, and the two frontrunners, Brokeback and Crash, had 86% and 75% respectively.In 2004, only Million Dollar Baby and Sideways had over 90%.

Or I could be wrong, but I really think voters do pay attention to the interwebs more these days. If No Country For Old Men had been released in 2001, when only big expensive movies and star vehicles like Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind got awards, I doubt if it would have been nominated.

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 6, 2008 10:02 PM

"While I don't think bloggers "hijacked" the Oscars, I would say that Oscar voters are more careful about their picks since the Crash backlash."

You are wrong if you think that the Acedemy members "have seen the light" or feel bad that they voted for it. They voted for first and foremost because they liked it. (And because it was a better movie than Brokeback Mountain).

Now they might be more cautious with Milk if it gathers a lot of external support and becomes an important gay rights movie (something, that it ironicaly will not be sold as) than they might think twice because they will not want to be branded as closetly homophobic. That's a little much for the 'libereal Academy'. That's the only effect of BM that I can see really playing a factor. But, most importantly, the quality has to be there first.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 03:59 AM

I don't think Academy voters "have seen the light". On the contrary, I think they're more influenced by external forces than ever in their picks.

And please don't go around saying Crash was a better movie than Brokeback. That is a matter of personal opinion, not an objective statement.

Furthermore, the reason Crash won BP was because Lionsgate sent out in inordinately large amount of screeners. Yes, voters voted for Crash because they liked it, but how much one "likes" a movie can be heavily affected by external forces. If it couldn't, No studio would bother with "for your consideration" adverts.

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 12:15 PM

Crash is _not_ a better movie than Brokeback. I thought we had gotten past that issue.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 01:05 PM

Yeah, I wasn't even that fond of Brokeback, but c'mon.

Posted by: CaptainZahn [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 01:07 PM

"And please don't go around saying Crash was a better movie than Brokeback. That is a matter of personal opinion, not an objective statement."

In that case, who are you to say that it's not?

Besides, as far as I'm concern it is a fact that it is a better film. I mean it's obvious (this should teach you not to argue with me on matters of taste. The more you talk about this the deeper I will go.) I was on record on this from the beginning (just as I was in saything that Munich was better than the two combined).

And I say this as someone who greatly admires Brokeback Mountain.

I still say that the Acedemy did actually sincerely like Crash. And no suprise, it's their kinda film. Sure the screeners greatly helped them get there but it doesn't change the notion.

And pleasly don't pretend that Crash isn't a greatly admired movie. Just check IMDb.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 01:39 PM

I'm sure Crash is better than SOME movie, but nothing's coming to mind right now.

Actually, Crash is the most impressively photographed and acted student film I've ever seen. In the DVD introduction, Paul Haggis refers to his film as "a passion piece." But it plays like the passion of a precocious, socially conscious middle schooler who's been motivated to make a movie after receiving praise for his anti-racism yearbook poems.

Posted by: yancyskancy [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 01:47 PM

I'm kind of partial to all the DUMB-ASS COINCIDENCES... like how Larenz Tate just HAPPENS to be related to a main character, how Luda acquires THE VAN FULL O' IMMIGRANTS, and how Thandie not only has a near-perilous traffic incident the day after being felt up by a cop... but it's THE SAME COP that rescues her.

I realize all these arguments are 3.5 years old, but to this day I have no idea how ANYONE couldn't have called bullshit around the time of the fourth, fifth, 21st ABSURD path-crossing, like the shit took place in some fucking one-horse town.

There are contrivances so unlikely -- like .000000001% chance of EVER happening to any two of the same characters, let alone a whole interlocking web of them -- that no sane person could or should award the movie any more than 2.5 stars, no matter how accomplished the acting, filmmaking, and even individual scenes.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 01:56 PM

The thing I object to most in that movie is the shrill melodrama of it all. And the bad acting, which goes together in the 'yelling is good acting' school of filmmaking. I can think of plenty of worse movies, but none of them are modern Best Picture winners.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 02:33 PM

i musta missed the 'crash' vs 'brokeback' smackdown, but the two pieces are an interesting contrast: 'crash' is overwrought verging on hysterical, and 'brokeback' is so subtle as to risk falling into a coma. personally i prefer subtle to overwrought any day of the week, but it's funny how 'overwrought' is so often mistaken for 'dramatic'

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 03:52 PM

It doesn't matter which movie was better. That was my point. But, objectively speaking, Crash is at 75% on the tomatometer while BM is at 86%. Nowadays, the majority of BP films are above 90%. That was my point.

And don't pretend like picking Crash didn't result in a shitload of backlash. Because it did.

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 7, 2008 10:54 PM

Which I like to call 'shitlash'.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 01:19 AM

Check out Probably Drunk 2am Jeff breaking with the jokes and shit. Improvement over usual rod personality = YAY!

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 01:26 AM

No drinks since 2am Tuesday night, Lex (I think that was a homemade white Russian).

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 01:28 AM

oh man, i love white russians. no one makes them look as tasty as 'the duder' tho, i try to channel his style whenever i indulge in a caucasian

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 02:12 AM

I will continue to defend Thandie Newton in that movie for years to come. She had more dedication to that material than anybody else in the cast combined, as, perhaps, unwarranted as it may have been (Terrence Howard, Ryan Phillippe and several others appear so uninterested in everything going on around them that it was hard to like them). Although, I did very much like Crash on my initial viewing (at which point I did predict it would receive either a Best Picture or Director nom, alas I did not predict both and a win - ouch) but subsequent viewings bring it's shortcomings into obvious light. It was better than A Beautiful Mind that's for sure.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 04:09 AM

KCamel, I actually think that Howard and Phillippe are the best performers in that movie, and that Newton gives a flat-out bad performance in it. Sorry to have to disagree with you.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 04:23 AM

I know a lot of people hate Newton in Crash, but she at least stands out as opposed to all those other people whose names I don't even remember (the latino dude from Lions for Lambs!)

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 8, 2008 06:36 AM

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