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December 20, 2008
Friday Estimates by Klady

One has to go all the way back to 2003 to find a pre-Christmas weekend that was not right on top of Christmas, creating a 4-day or 5-day weekend and that entails. Now, 2003 did have Return of the King burning things up. That level of film has not entered the market this month. But after that, grosses were $11.5m, $11.4m, $7.8m, $5.5m… the top one being the release of a new Julia Roberts movie, back when Julia Roberts seemed like an unstoppable force "in the right movie."
That’s more what this weekend looks like. And here is a look at where those films were on “this” Friday that year and where they got by the end of the New Year’s weekend.
Mona Lisa Smile - $4.1m to $50m
Something’s Gotta Give - $3.2m ($22m in the bank) added $59.2 ($81.2m)
The Last Samurai - $2.1m ($51.7m in the bank) added $38.2m ($90m total)
Stuck On You - $1.6m ($11.7 in the bank) added $19m ($30.7m total)
Obviously, every movie is different and the competition plays out quite differently every year.
In 2003, you had four films going wide on Christmas day. This year, we will have five.
In 2003, none of the four became Best Picture nominees, but only one was really going for it. This year, only one is really going for it, and most think it will get in. But, who knows?
In 2003, the total domestic grosses for the four films going into the market on Christmas were $138.6m (Cheaper By The Dozen), $95.6m (Cold Mountain), Paycheck ($53.8m), and Peter Pan ($48.5m). (And how eerie is it to have a family comedy – Bedtime Stories – a serious Oscar-y drama – Ben Button – a thriller – Valkyrie – and another family-ish film – Marley & Me – landing on the same day five years later?)
There really is not precedent that fits snugly with either Yes Man or Seven Pounds. Next Thursday, Marley & Me and Bedtime Stories seem to be coming down right on top of the audience that WB hoped to find for Yes Man. Benjamin Button seems to be landing right on top of the audience Seven Pounds is seeking as a weepie. So we’ll see. But neither opener this weekend looks on the face of it to be heading to $100 million.
The Tale of Despereaux does have some precise correlation, to Paramount’s Charlotte’s Web, which opened to $3.4 million on a Friday the week before Christmas. It had an extra week in the holiday season and ended up doing $83 million. The tail of Despereaux may be shorter… like $20 million shorter.
Posted by dpoland at December 20, 2008 10:59 AM
Comments
A 75 percent drop for Day the Earth Stood Still. Hokey smoke, Bullwinkle!
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 20, 2008 11:09 AM
And so it appears that Will Smith is finally proof that all things come to an end (in this case, his running winning streak of consecutive $100m+ grosses). Of course, because it appears that Seven Pounds will not reach $100m, it will be considered a flop. Added to that of course, are the reviews.
But who knows, maybe it will have legs and slowly ease its way through. In these straitened times, the audience may just be willing to see it and weep (I haven't seen it and won't be seeing, or weeping for at least a couple of weeks; it doesn't open here until mid-Jan).
Posted by: The Pope
at December 20, 2008 12:42 PM
The correlation of those four films with these four films isn't too hot, but the Tales & Charlotte comparison works.
After releasing the beyond vague trailer last month, and nothing much else, $100 million was simply never in the cards.
Weather was terrible nationwide, but even places with normal conditions had lite attendance. Frost/Nixon is dead in the water.
Posted by: Tofu
at December 20, 2008 01:11 PM
I'm not sure I get why you think "Frost/Nixon" is "dead in the water," Tofu.
It's gotten almost universally solid reviews (probably better than a Ron Howard movie deserves), has done splendidly in (very) limited release so far and has a better than even money shot at scoring Best Picture/Director/Actor/Screenplay Oscar nominations next month, right before it enters "wide" release.
How does this translate as d.i.t.w.?
Posted by: movieman
at December 20, 2008 01:52 PM
It doesn't. He was making things up.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at December 20, 2008 02:02 PM
Shit, I should have just stayed home tonight and gotten drunk or played videogames:
I forgot that the "holiday season" brings out all the moviegoing riffraff, regardless of venue-- yes, even to some of L.A.'s "upscale" rooms.
So that said, a big "fuck you" to the theater-hopping ASSHOLE who decided to sneak into our *Arclight* showing of MILK at the *80 minute* mark, plop down three seats away (from me specifically), and texted on his Blackberry feverishly for the remainder, in clear view of the entire theater behind him.
When Penn and Diego Luna have their final scene and Penn's reaction, were we supposed to be hearing the click-clack of this fuckwad's numberpad and the shining beacon of his screen? By the time I scolded him (in the douchiest, wishy-washiest way possible), the movie was effectively ruined, as I spent the last act more annoyed than if Joe Leydon was chicken-scratching next to me.
I guess I understand theater-hoppers if you're a real cheapskate, and if you can duck in at the beginning, I don't really care. But what the FUCK can possibly be gained by catching the last 30 minutes of something? (Amusingly, the split second Brolin started firing, the dude got up and left, probably mentally checking it off his list: Yep, saw how that one ended, good enough.)
Now I have to pay to see this shit again. And of course when you complain about such things at the Arclight, they're polite and eager to please, but the response is always, "YOU SHOULD HAVE COME AND TOLD SOMEONE."
Because, yeah, it TOTALLY doesn't take one out of a movie to go leave for four minutes to flag down an usher, then sit there while they try to evict some defensive, ill-tempered texting tool.
Posted by: LexG
at December 20, 2008 10:49 PM
You're right: they should have been doing their job and noticing that shit
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 21, 2008 01:41 AM
Jeff, I tell ya: I go to that place DOZENS of times a year usually without incident, and it's still the best bet in town, but this time of year, EVERY YEAR, something big gets fucked up for me because all the idiots are out, all hopped up from shopping or rattled from holiday stress, and basic etiquette is out the window. I don't know if the staff just can't control the enormous crowds, or they're more laissez-faire. And it's usually at the movies where you'd never expect to see some dumb shit like that.
Like, if I was seeing Hills Have Eyes 3 at some hellhole Valley multiplex, I expect that kind of shit; But considering I was swept up for over an hour in one of the best movies of the year, totally engaged, and a theater that prides itself on appealing to serious moviegoers, it especially burns to have some ADD/restless leg Blackberry dick come in taking the Whitman's Sampler approach to moviegoing because his "Doubt" show nextdoor let out a half hour before his dinner plans.
Sorry, Rod Lurie, I was gonna see your movie tomorrow but thanks to Arclight not enforcing their policies, I have to go see "Milk" again.
Posted by: LexG
at December 21, 2008 02:08 AM
Lex, the exact same thing happened to me earlier this year during a showing of Funny Games. Douchebag comes in late, texts, even gets a phone call. I got so mad, I yelled "Stop fucking texting or get the fuck out", pretty loud. I'm not the fighting type, but this shit bothers me beyond anything. I was ready to pummel the fuck out of him, on a sunday afternoon no less. The tool got up and left. Not that I condone fighting, but once in a while, the promise of getting into it with someone really gets the blood flowing, and that's healthy in my books.
Posted by: Aris P
at December 21, 2008 02:33 AM
Well, of all the movies this year, that was a good one to text through.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 21, 2008 03:39 AM
Oh, and hey Lex: if, after the holidays, you want to meet up and drink and get angry at people, I'm ALWAYS down for that.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 21, 2008 03:39 AM
"Doubt" is scheduled to go wide on Xmas Day, so that'll be 6 wide releases.
@Pope: "Seven Pounds" may hit $100M if the weather breaks right. Xmas/New Year's is when every day is like Saturday night for a movie theater.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at December 21, 2008 07:53 AM
I'm at Arclight all the time and rarely encounter any problems, but as Lex mentioned when I do it's at the oddest films. I saw the very arty, subtitled, "Letters From Iwo Jima" on a Saturday afternoon and seated a few rows back was, of all things, some (apparently) homeless guy who was drunk or stoned talking back to the screen like it was some grindhouse feature. He would have these weird periodic outbursts about how we are gonna get'em, etc. until finally about 45 minutes in he just nodded off and wasn't heard from again. The worst experience I've had since I moved to L.A. was seeing "Eyes Wide Shut" at the AMC in Woodland Hills on the opening weekend. Packed house and EVERYONE was expecting a f**k film. Needless to say you could feel the tension awaiting (the never to occur) release from beginning to end. Cell phones and chatter started up pretty quickly once the crowd realized what they were really getting. Brutal.
Posted by: Pelham123
at December 21, 2008 09:16 AM
Whenever I see a really "out there" type of film, I get saddled with crazy's. Like when I saw "Irreversible" at the Aero in Santa Monica, this wasted homeless guy sat right in the front laughing through the first 1/2. He actually shut up during the rape scene and left, but still. I was already uncomfortable and that guy magnified it.
Then another time I was seeing "Wild at Heart" with my frigging mom at a nice theater in Marin County. Again, already feeling uncomfortable when this nut case starts marching down the aisles of the theater, saluting the screen and then goes back to his seat.
Texters/phoners are also irritating, but I don't have the guts to risk getting knifed by some loser for telling him to grow some manners.
Posted by: don lewis (was PetalumaFilms)
at December 21, 2008 12:13 PM
I live just about walking distance from the AMC Woodland Hills. It's a horrible audience during the weekend evening shows, the epitome of why people hate going to the movies (texting, talking, yelling, altercations in the aisles, throwing straws, etc... from people young and old). I spent my first two 'LA years' in Studio City and the AMC Burbank was a fine experience every time. My wife and I have started going to the Pacific 21 in Winnetka for weekend movies. So far, no complaints,
Posted by: Scott Mendelson
at December 21, 2008 12:23 PM
You should get the manager's cell number so you can whip out your Blackberry and text him when these (upscale) assholes start their douchebaggery. You'd think somebody who can afford fifteen bucks for a movie would show more class, but maybe you need to find another place. Competition, don't you know.
Posted by: doug r
at December 21, 2008 02:04 PM
Thing is, pretty much every major L.A. theater chain has caught up to the Arclight in price: Most Pacifics and AMCs'll run you 12 or 12.50 at night, plus the refreshments and parking are actually CHEAPER at the Arclight, so the idea that the high prices are keeping out the hoi polloi doesn't really apply anymore.
But, yes, I'll be re-seeing "Milk" at the Vista for 6 bucks.
The oddest Arclight audience last year was "Atonement," where for some reason a whole section of ill-behaved, texting and profanely chattering thug-type teens (the fuck?) just had to see "the new McAvoy." And Pelham, during "Iwo Jima" some fat guy snored loudly throughout, prompting me to just ask for my money back and see it elsewhere.
Posted by: LexG
at December 21, 2008 02:44 PM
There's a simple way to stop all the phone/text douchebags. It's called a Saturday Night Special. Once open carry is made legal in Cali the douchebags will go away.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at December 21, 2008 05:00 PM
^^^Huh? Wow. I guess a rain's gonna wash all the scum off the streets of suburban New Jersey.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 21, 2008 06:06 PM
"Once open carry is made legal in Cali the douchebags will go away."
'Shhhh...', Chucky whispered, blowing softly at the tip of the smoking barrel standing in for his finger. 'I can't hear Keanu...'
Posted by: Hallick
at December 21, 2008 08:00 PM
GET OFF MY LAWN, YOU GOOKS!!!
Alternately...
You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya gook?
Thanks for playing Veddy Bad Eastwood Imitations
Posted by: David Poland
at December 21, 2008 08:13 PM
Lex, one of ArcLight's selling points is that an usher sits in the auditorium for the entire movie specifically to stop people from calling or texting or whatever. You definitely should tell a manager the next time you go there that someone wasn't doing his damn job.
Posted by: Cadavra
at December 21, 2008 11:47 PM
Actually, in the Arclight usher's opening spiel, they only promise to be in the auditorium for the first few minutes to check picture and sound, and then pop in periodically throughout. I've never heard them say they'd have someone there for the entire run time.
I'm just lucky I guess (knock wood), but I've never had a major incident there. A couple of slight issues were nipped in the bud (a couple of girls dancing around before a Twilight screening, a loudmouth or two who got shushed into silence pretty quickly -- and once we had to switch seats because of some dude's b.o.).
Posted by: yancyskancy
at December 22, 2008 01:29 AM
Well, to be accurate, we were told this at the ArcLight Sherman Oaks; I just assumed the Hollywood one had the same policy.
Posted by: Cadavra
at December 22, 2008 03:45 PM
Isn't there some kind of device that blocks cell phone signals?? They apparently have one at my in-laws house and whenever I'm bored at work.
Dave-
I've been calling my wife and child "Goddam Gooks" all week in a low, snarly whisper. I know it's awful, but everytime Clint grumbled those lines out (and "zipperhead") I couldn't help but bust out laughing. And before you the PC police get all over me, my kids like, 1 so she has no idea what a horrible racist her father is being. Yet.
Posted by: don lewis (was PetalumaFilms)
at December 23, 2008 04:51 PM
Gooks! Funny!
Posted by: christian
at December 24, 2008 02:31 PM
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