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December 16, 2008
Short Ends… (Pt 1 of 2)
GIVE AWAY THE DAMNED RAZORS!!! – I am thrilled for WB and their big sales for The Dark Knight, on Blu-ray and off. But I would be really, really, really curious about where these alleged supermarkets selling the film on Blu-ray are. I haven’t found a single one in Los Angeles. (Maybe some of you have… would love to hear about it.)
I feel like I repeat myself a lot on this, but selling Blu-ray to anyone who has a Blu-ray player is a slam dunk… especially with non-Blu DVDs and/or digital downloads included. There is no doubt about the superiority of the format and the cost of just a few dollars more is not a real problem.
$400 players is a real problem.
If Sony decided to make the PS3, which is flailing (at best) as a game platform, and to make it THE Blu-ray platform of Blu-ray platforms… slash prices… and even take a $100 per unit hit on the deal to bring the next 50 million units into households at $200 million a unit… a half billion dollar hit… I think they could save Blu-ray and reinvigorate DVD for another few years.
BD Live may actually work some day. Great. Niche business, really. But if you can make a living selling razor blades, you need a market to sell to. And at these hardware prices – now just below the cost of a quality home computer – you will never have a big enough market. You will get a blip like Batman. Huzzah. A movie every gamer wants to own. Great.
But what will happen to Sony stock if Blu-ray dies, for all intents and purposes, in the next year, as digital television becomes the law and 1080p satellite and cable delivery become more than 505 of the market?
No more Betamaxes… ever!
SPEAKING OF BETAMAX - This one is a-ok!. (For best effect, don't try to switch channels too much.)
LAYOFFS – Beware the spin going on out there. WB is shutting down their NY publicity office this week. Yes, some of those jobs will be recreated in Los Angeles. Some will not. The Dark Knight healed many wounds. But economies of scale will continue to be pushed from above.
Sony cuts are said not to be targeting the movie division, but you never know. One of the big budget lines – at Sony and everywhere else – is marketing and that has been sliced back in ways that are very hard for those of us on the coasts, where we are soaking in it, to notice.
Fox should be relatively safe until May, when things will either get very good or very bad.
Disney went through their big cuts, though cuts that can be made “with a scapel” will continue there, as they will for all studios.
NBC/Universal continues to live in “anything could happen” mode. The lack of a buyer is the main reason why the division will not likely be sold anytime soon. But the infusion of DreamWorks will keep everyone on their toes. And the ongoing rumors about Focus will likely find themselves defined at Sundance, where there will be pressure to pick up more there than usual for less than usual. Focus is in a good position to capitalize on the dependent meltdown of the last year. We’ll see if they do. One thing we know about the current map is that treading water = death.
Vantage was dead a year ago and the only reason for it to continue on was ego and the vain attempt to pretend, for Wall Street’s sake, that the very publicity-successful financially disastrous division was worth keeping and that its top boss, being promoted, was a good thing for the company’s stock value.
Paramount’s next cuts – aside from sending many of the whip smart awards team scattering back to consultancies - will be completely dependent on the box office of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, then Star Trek, then GI Joe. Worldwide targets for breakeven on these films are something on the order of $300m, $400m, and $250m. There is a big chunk of profit expected on Transformers 2, a franchise that looks like the kind that will grow in its second time out.
But if Ben Button turns out to be a reflection of Gangs of New York (10 Oscar nominations, just under $200m worldwide), there will be additional first quarter cuts. New releases in the first and second quarter of ’09 should be a wash, with distribution money coming in from DW Animation’s Monsters Vs. Aliens and nothing else looking like a sure winner. Star Trek lands in May. If that movie only does $250 worldwide - $100 million more than any Star Trek movie before – the death watch for Brad Gray will start in earnest, but with Transformers 2 a pretty sure bet, they will probably have GI Joe to try to bail them out. If Star Trek does $500 million, the Gray regime will have until the end of the year to prove that they have a workable vision for the future.
Many people are hoping to see Brad Gray lose. But for the sake of the middle class over at Paramount, I am rooting for Ben Button to be a surprise box office killer.
Posted by dpoland at December 16, 2008 01:52 PM
Comments
I actually saw a Blu-Ray of "The Dark Knight" at a Safeway here in Northern California and actually thought to myself, "Jeez, everyone must have a Blu-Ray player now if they're selling the disks in Safeway." So, yeah. They're out there.
And truth be told it's really smart because stores like Best Buy and target are complete clusterfucks this time of year. I went to a Target to get my "The Dark Knight" Blu-Ray and it was sold out where I went. Then I went to Best Buy, grabbed one and waited a good 15 mins to purchase it.
I never play the holiday season shopping game so had I known I could go down the street to get a Blu-Ray....I would have in a heartbeat.
Posted by: don lewis (was PetalumaFilms) ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at December 16, 2008 02:45 PM
WB has international rights on "Benjamin Button", thus Par is not totally on the hook.
Outlandish prediction: Sony folds SPC distribution into Columbia/Screen Gems distribution. If WB can do it with New Line, Sony can do it with SPC.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey at December 16, 2008 05:09 PM
GE could find a buyer for UMG in a week, but nowhere near the price they want as its only value is in assests. Zucker is one of top players in GE corporate hierarchy and not simply head of the UMG division. Everything he does - Dreamworks, Leno - should be seen through the prism of how it keeps his job in tact. Nothing is being done with an altruistic eye towards improving the company. I don't understand the disdain for Grey when Zucker has done a far worse job.
Posted by: Martin S at December 16, 2008 05:13 PM
How many consumers do you think are accidently picking up the BR of Dark Knight thinking it will work in their regular DVD player? I'd guess, quite a few. I don't think that Blu Ray, as a competing home video format, is all that well known outside of the geek and home theater crowd.
Posted by: martin at December 16, 2008 06:43 PM
I'd guess not many. The format has been out for two whole years now, and doesn't even have to compete with a confusing step-brother format anymore. All of the older buyers I see at Best Buy appear to know the difference. Not to mention that advertisements for a full year now have illustrated the difference.
Posted by: Tofu at December 16, 2008 07:12 PM
Tofu I think you are vastly under estimating the ignorance of consumers. I bet a lot of people are at home watching Blu-rays on tvs that can't even show 720p. Electronic companies have done a lousy job of explaining HD and Sony has done a worse job explaining what additional features they get when getting a blu-ray. For all of Sony's crowing about a good season of sales for the PS3 I think it's mostly junk. I visit local gaming stores and everybody is crowded around the 360/wii section. If they don't find a way to cut the price on that thing to around $200 they will lose this generation of console wars. Hell I don't think Blu-ray will catch on until Apex sells a $100 version at walmart. It's also concievable, if net neutrality remains in tact, that physical media gets bypassed all together. I can stream some pretty damn good movies via netflix. Why wait for a disc in the mail?
Posted by: tfresca at December 16, 2008 09:52 PM
My local Blockbuster is selling a Blu-Ray player for $199.
Not a brand name, but still...
Posted by: LYT at December 16, 2008 10:27 PM
Is that the Cloondog on "The Facts of Life?"
Posted by: Josh Massey at December 17, 2008 06:37 AM
Hey Dave,
Just a couple of comments: A) $400 BD players? Where are you shopping? $200-250 (and falling) is pretty much the standard right now for name brands and for anyone buying a new LCD, there are countless BD bundles to choose from. B) 1080P streaming TV is good in theory but it only applies to handful of actual shows right now. Moreoever not everyone, even with an LCD, can afford to pay for digital satellite. With BD disc prices already falling below $20, it will be here to stay for a long while.
Posted by: montrealkid at December 17, 2008 08:17 AM
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