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December 28, 2008
Weekend Estimates by Klady - December 28

2003 was the last time that Christmas was on a Thursday... or even more significantly, not as part of a Sat, Sun, Mon, or Tues. Like this year, that led to the an unusually horrible Christmas Eve. It's always a big off day, but the Top Ten gross for the day was millions lower than the other Eves in 2003 ($14.7m) and this year just $10.1m.
It's not a coincidence that this is also the first Christmas since 2003 with anything near the new release firepower that we saw this year. That year, it was Cheaper By The Dozen, Ben Affleck's attempt at a non-Ryan thriller, Paycheck, the Oscar chasing Cold Mountain, and Peter Pan.
They grossed $35.4m, $13.5m, $14.6m, and $11.1m in those first four days, for about $74.6 million combined. This weekend's foursome of $158.8m crushed that... more than double. Of course, the real estate eaten by LOTR:ROTK $64.6 million had a lot to do with that. This year's top holdover, Yes Man, did $22.3 million over four. That still leaves a $41.9 million separation between the Top Five (for four days) this year vs 2003. And the real pleasant surprises in there are the size of the number for Marley and the huge number for Ben Button.
The Button opening is, actually, Ocean's level big. For Pitt, this is huge. It's almost as big as Troy, but that was a summer movie. And - he said with a smirk - Troy was actually MORE expensive than BB. This number should lock in the film for a Best Picture nomination... though it was likely going to lock in with any number as low as half this opening.
Projecting forward, there is a real shot at the film better than doubling its current total by the end of the holiday, January 4. A total of $80 million by then would make BB easily the highest pre-nom December release grosser since the Rings era. Juno, which was the only other Dec release to be over $60 million when nom'ed post-Rings, was at $31.5m at the end of the holiday ($87m when nominations were announced). (The Departed and Ray were the only two others over $60m when nominated post-Rings, period.)
Going farther back, A Beautiful Mind was the last big non-Rings December Oscar release to be over $100 million when nominated - and Button is likely be the next - but Mind didn't go wide until after the holiday.
The reason this is really the biggest story of the weekend is that a domestic total of $170 - $200 million likely means at least $250 million overseas. $450m worldwide means the film will be profitable in theatrical. This means that no one else needs to be fired at Paramount for a while. (There is still likely to be some post-awards season talent losses.)
So mock the black tie premiere or the books or whatever you want about how they sold this sucker, but scoreboard is scoreboard. And unlike the Vantage "successful" cash drainers last year, this film, if things keep going right, has the scale to pay for its excesses. And that is an achievement indeed.
P.S. The other HUGE story is MGM marketing a loser, Valkyrie, to an opening that is stronger that Cruise-superstar drama openings like Vanilla Sky and Eyes Wide Shut. $200 million worldwide is almost guaranteed. I don't know that this will be enough for the film to be profitable. Many insiders say, "no." But it may be enough to keep investors from abandoning MGM and Cruise's UA play.
Posted by poland at December 28, 2008 01:46 PM
Comments
Good lord! The people went to the theatres in droves. Good on the people for running away from their families and into the arms of cinema.
Posted by: IOIOIOI
at December 28, 2008 02:23 PM
Or maybe they went with their families. And considering the current state of the economy -- it's cheaper to go with the folks to a megaplex than to a bowl game, right?
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 28, 2008 02:37 PM
Is Tom Cruise back? 30 million for a Nazi movie with bad buzz is pretty damn good.
The Wrestler fell harder than expected...surprised at the number for "Harvey" in relation to the number for "Bashir," this year's "Persepolis."
Posted by: EthanG
at December 28, 2008 02:55 PM
The Spirit was the greatest thing I've ever seen. Like, ever.
Paz Vega and especially vamping Johansson = apocalyptic, wholesale megaownage.
That Alicia Keys-lookalike who played Young Mendes is clearly going to be the biggest star the world has ever seen.
Posted by: LexG
at December 28, 2008 03:00 PM
I think Harvey has a chance of being this year's Bucket List, myself.
The Spirit was probably the worst movie I've seen since, well, Max Payne, the last movie that tried to knock off Sin City without injecting the film with any energy.
Posted by: a_loco
at December 28, 2008 03:04 PM
Funny the way some people are parsing out which picture is doing better. Bedtime Stories was expected to win the weekend, but Marley comes out of nowhere, so that is the winner. But then Button surprises as well... and people start bleating on about, well, it is on fewer screens and is an hour longer, so really it is doing better, so really it... so what? Next they'll be saying, well, it's only Frankel's third feature, and since Fincher is on his seventh that makes Frankel's so doesn't that count? And you know, Aniston is putting one over on Brad, so that... so what? But then maybe people will re-evaluate that again if Fincher wins the Oscar because Frankel... oh, wait a minute. He's won an Oscar already.
If this doesn't make any real sense, it isn't supposed to. When it comes to box-office surely only two things really matter are return against cost. Everything else is just perception. And if Hollywood insists on it being about perception, someone please tell them to listen to people who have lost a lot of money in the last year because the market was built on (mis)perception.
Posted by: The Pope
at December 28, 2008 03:05 PM
a_loco, what are you talking about?
It has roughly 30 smoking-hot buxom chicks being awesome, Edgar from 24 playing cloned douchebags, a cipher lead character, and Jackson in a Nazi uniform in a scene that easily must last 47 straight minutes. Johansson alone makes the movie an AUTOMATIC three-star film.
After the sad, exhausting Ben Button and the stiff, dry Valkyrie, it was the perfect idiotic chaser.
Posted by: LexG
at December 28, 2008 03:10 PM
Not to say "I told you so," but, yeah, I told you so.
I knew that "M&M" was the holiday movie to beat after seeing it a few weeks back. The fact that it's damn good--surprisingly
good--only makes its success all that more satisfying. And bravo to Fox proper for finally making (and marketing) another live-action hit. Their first of 2008 (not that anyone is keeping tabs or anything, lol).
Immensely gratified by the success of "BB" (my favorite non-'toon American movie of 2008). Can Fincher and Brad overtake ostensible Oscar fave (the egregiously overrated "Slumdog Millionaire")? Probably not, but it'll be fun to watch it accumulate the bucks until then.
NOT a "Valkyrie" fan (I commented on the movie in an earlier post), yet I saw this "shocking" opening weekend figure coming weeks ago....and shared my sneaking suspicion that it could turn out to be one of the season's underdogs on this very blog.
I'm actually glad for Cruise (and UA) that they've somehow managed to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
But Bryan Singer should definitely be stopped from committing any further cinematic atrocities in the name of commerce (and at this point in his career, he's only about the bucks: "Sundance vet HACK"!)
I tagged "Harvey" (a really lovely movie btw) as a potential sleeper a while back. "Bucket List"-type success seems pretty remote for a fledgling brand like Overture (this year's "BL" is "Gran Torino"). But they could have another "Visitor" on their hands if they market this thing properly. It's an old-fashioned, w.o.m. style of movie--the kind that nobody really makes anymore--that needs a little TLC to live up to its b.o. potential.
Nat'l sneaks early next month wouldn't be a bad idea.
Posted by: movieman
at December 28, 2008 03:46 PM
"The other HUGE story is MGM marketing a loser, Valkyrie..." Well, maybe. Or maybe MGM simply did a competent job of marketing a movie that a significant number of people actually wanted to see. As opposed to a movie like... Well, Valkyrie will outgross Speed Racer by, what do you think, Wednesday? Thursday?
On a happier note: Last Chance Harvey is indeed a charmer. And, yes, I think the same audience that flocked to Bucket List could enjoy this one. The challenge, however, will be making that audience aware of this movie.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 28, 2008 04:05 PM
Ahhhh, don't go hating on "Speed Racer," Joe! Some of us really love that atrociously marketed sugar rush cum head trip.
And while I agree that "Harvey" would no doubt appeal to the "Bucket List" demographic, I don't see Overture having much success in delivering it to the multiplex masses. That's why I'm hedging my bets and crossing my fingers for (at least)
a "Visitor"-sized sleeper hit.
Hope you're having a fine holiday season, Mr. Leydon.
Catching up on my previously recorded HBO programming ("True Blood," "Generation Kill," "John Adams," LIttle Britain USA"), and having a whale of a time. Irregardless of the venue, "Gen Kill" IS the best American "movie" I saw in all of 2008: it's arguably the finest depiction of men in combat since Kubrick's "Full Metal Jacket."
P.S.= I'm off to your hometown of New Orleans next Monday, and hopefully I won't lose my sense of taste (and smell) before landing the way I did last year.
So pumped to try the Frank Bruni-endorsed Cochon that I've already booked dinner AND lunch reservations.
Posted by: movieman
at December 28, 2008 04:46 PM
Movieman: You really should go to The Clover Grill, the little corner restaurant you see Brad Pitt in at one point in Benjamin Button. It's a real place, and it's a hoot around 4 am, when you may spot transvestite hookers at one table, cops at another, wide-eyed tourists at a third -- and, if I'm in town, me at the counter, getting some early breakfast to balance all the grenades I've been drinking all evening.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 28, 2008 04:57 PM
Expect the estimates to be 5-10 percent higher than the actuals. Lots of important NFL games today.
"Last Chance Harvey" goes wide on 1/16 but will get mowed down easily by "Gran Torino". Oscar-Whoring can only take you so far.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at December 28, 2008 05:11 PM
The place sounds like a hoot, Joe. I'll definitely have to check it out.
Chucky: I'm getting conflicting information about "Harvey"'s "wide" release date(s)...heard both the 16th and 23rd. Maybe it's an expansion of the current limited release on the 16th and wide-wide on the 23rd?
(I know that it's not skedded to hit NE Ohio until the 23rd).
But "Torino" is truly hitting everywhere in the US of A come January 9th.
Posted by: movieman
at December 28, 2008 05:23 PM
funny you mentioned speed racer (truly one of this years most loathsome) -- this a.m. i was called to the door for the delivery of a 42" 1080p, a blu-ray player and a copy of 'speed racer'.....it's my partner's sense of humor that keeps me sticking around.....
Posted by: scooterzz
at December 28, 2008 07:11 PM
Although I'm one of those who loved Speed Racer (it's probably my favorite film of the year... eek!), I can relate. When I got my first DVD player back in May, 1999, it came with, of all things, Batman & Robin.
Posted by: Scott Mendelson
at December 28, 2008 09:37 PM
Chucky, what happens when Academy Award-winner Clint Eastwood clashes with Two-Time Academy Award Winner Dustin Hoffman and Academy Award Nominee Emma Thompson - shouldn't the combined evil accumulate into a mega-Oscar-name-checking monster?
In other news, you are nuts.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at December 28, 2008 10:15 PM
I'm only so-so/mildly positive on the cold, aloof, characterization-free "Valkyrie," but COULD NOT be happier that it's a hit and that Cruise is back in the public's good graces; People seem to like the movie and this opening is a good step forward toward his getting back on top.
"Button" is the movie o' the year, far as I'm concerned, so color me extremely surprised and happy at that huge, awesome opening, which ought to catapult it straight to the head of the Oscar pack.
My only worry is that it'll get so popular, it'll turn into one of those "Gump"/"Titanic" deals where five years from now we all have to work up a froth to pretend just how much we hate it.
Posted by: LexG
at December 28, 2008 10:47 PM
If Valkyrie follows the same pattern as other Cruise films that have opened in that range (Sky, Last Samurai, Collateral), it should finish with a fairly hefty gross.
It should also be helped by Holiday legs. Maybe it will be profitable after all.
Posted by: a_loco
at December 28, 2008 10:51 PM
FYI, Jeff, Thompson isn't merely an Oscar nominee, she's a two-time winner in different categories: Actress (HOWARDS END) and Adapted Screenplay (SENSE AND SENSIBILITY).
Posted by: Cadavra
at December 28, 2008 11:17 PM
Clint has to Oscars as well, which means there's 6 Oscars between the 3 of them.
By Chucky's logic, it's gonna be an awful weekend.
Posted by: a_loco
at December 28, 2008 11:55 PM
Can someone recommend some PAZ VEGA movies please, other than Spanglish, which I've seen?
Posted by: LexG
at December 28, 2008 11:57 PM
The word of mouth on BUTTON has been mixed. Some people seem to love it and others are meh. Lex worries it will "turn into one of those Gump/Titanic deals," and to me it screams ENGLISH PATIENT. People go in with the expectation of seeing some brilliant art film, and in five years time they'll shrug their shoulders, "meh." How will an almost three hour-long flick fare in overseas markets? TROY did very well world-wide, but this one won't.
M&ME seems to have strong word of mouth.
VALKYRIE - Is outdoing expectations. Perhaps the anti-Cruise onslaught will diminish... or maybe his next three movies, even if they enjoy similar box office success, will be considered "comeback" pics. Am I crazy to think this will do better at the worldwide box office than BUTTON?
Posted by: Cain
at December 29, 2008 12:24 AM
Button is not The English Patient. Minghella's film was a huge success by accident. No big stars, no big studio behind it priming it for Oscar glory before the thing was even finished. And the brilliance of the film is that it delivers on an golden age Hollywood level as well as a dense, layered, artistic one, which is also why it's not fondly remembered by the indie snobs or the lemmings who like their classics simple and condescending (like Forrest Gump or Titanic).
Button is a hybrid of sorts, and certainly more credible than the two shallow epics above, but it doesn't have ANY indie cred, Fincher is a visionary, but the story is still middle-of-the-road fantasy. I imagine the personal baggage that most of its fans brought to it are going to prevent any kind of buyer's remorse in the future.
For the record, it's maybe my favorite of the year, along with Synecdoche.
Posted by: lazarus
at December 29, 2008 12:37 AM
Clint Eastwood has four Oscars, people!
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 29, 2008 01:16 AM
Kami, that actually sent me to IMDB to tally them, but I don't know if most people consider it that way: Two wins for Director; Both those films also won Picture, but is that traditionally considered four? I assume he produced M$B and Unforgiven, but I tend to think of BP wins as kind of impersonal, and wouldn't necessarily count them... just the two director wins.
Posted by: LexG
at December 29, 2008 01:24 AM
lazarus, i'm almost embarrassed to admit my sourness towards 'the english patient' - esp. because so many people seem to admire and adore the film - but i'm exactly like elaine benes in that 'english patient' episode of 'seinfeld', it's scary.
'How will an almost three hour-long flick fare in overseas markets? TROY did very well world-wide, but this one won't.'
yeah, us overseas dufuses can't stay awake in a dark theatre that long
re: cruise, i must say he was a real sport on letterman the other night; say what one will about him, he certainly is a likable sort, no doubt about it; but i did find his physical appearance quite disconcerting, he was so thin and slight with his head seemingly too large for his short body, like one of those bobble head dolls, i actually found myself worried for him.
i've not seen 'valkyrie' but i was watching 'collateral' the other night and i'm of the opinion that with the right project and a director capable of really lifting tom out of his 'tom cruise' persona a la 'fourth of july', 'magnolia', 'collateral' - even 'interview', in which i find him far more appealing than pitt - cruise has the ability to convincingly inhabit a role lurking within him, it's just a matter of cutting away the thick layer of 'tomness' in which he is so heavily ensconced to the actor core within. but from what i hear about 'valkyrie' so far, it sounds as if singer hasn't managed to do that this time round, bummer
(lex: '10 items or less' - i think that's what it's called - paz plays a grocery store checkout girl with morgan freeman as himself and 'seth' from superbad is in it as well...i didn't watch it very closely on dvd a while back with a group of other people distracting me, plus it wasn't exactly gripping, but i'm pretty sure paz is the one in it)
Posted by: leahnz
at December 29, 2008 01:26 AM
LexG is going to lose his damn mind when he sees Sex and Lucia.
Posted by: Rothchild
at December 29, 2008 01:37 AM
(Sorry for the caps, I've done so well lately...)
TOM CRUISE IS GOD.
Rothchild and leahnz, thanks for the recommendations... Paz Vega = MEGA OWNAGE.
Posted by: LexG
at December 29, 2008 01:59 AM
Skip 10 Items. She's all kinds of naked in Sex and Lucia.
Posted by: Rothchild
at December 29, 2008 02:49 AM
For what it's worth, the 8.30 session of Benjamin Button I was at was about 75% full so, as Leah said, us crazy international people are indeed capable (and willing) of sitting through a 3hr movie. Shocking as it may seem.
Lex, he has four statues at his house. Hence, he's a four-time Oscar winner. The only time it gets tricky is foreign language film winners since, IMDb at least, doesn't count the director as the winner but actually the country even though the director is the recipient.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 29, 2008 03:06 AM
yeah, paz doesn't show her boobies as the checkout girl extraordinaire, i think i'd remember that much
Posted by: leahnz
at December 29, 2008 03:40 AM
looking forward to 'button' tomorrow night
Posted by: leahnz
at December 29, 2008 03:42 AM
For boobies and skimpily clad outfits on aisle 7, rent "Cashback"...not great, but decent
Posted by: EthanG
at December 29, 2008 06:24 AM
I saw Slumdog Millionaire (great film) and The Curious Case of Bejamin Button (another great film). This is great news for Hollywood, I am very pleased that these movies are doing well at the B.O.
Posted by: DeafBrownTrashPunk
at December 29, 2008 07:39 AM
You guys beat me to it. Buy -- don't rent -- Sex and Lucia, Lex. Immediately.
And here are two more words to add to your vocabulary: Elena and Anaya.
Posted by: frankbooth
at December 29, 2008 09:03 AM
(forgot to mention late last night: i actually fell asleep in 'sex and lucia', but i did appreciate some male nudity on display for a change along with the boobies - boobies bore me endlessly. apparently the movie gets better after where i fell asleep)
Posted by: leahnz
at December 29, 2008 11:25 AM
The movie never does get better, leah, but the nakedness does.
Posted by: chris
at December 29, 2008 12:00 PM
SPEED RACER tops my cult favorite of the year.
Posted by: christian
at December 29, 2008 04:32 PM
Just an observation: Australia has made nearly $100mil worldwide. That is all.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 29, 2008 10:55 PM
Kamikaze: I loved Australia. No kidding.
Posted by: Joe Leydon
at December 29, 2008 11:06 PM
Paz Vega also does nice work (and is very hot) in Jada Pinkett Smith's The Human Contract, which is currently sans distribution.
Posted by: aframe
at December 29, 2008 11:23 PM
REALLY wanted to see Australia, still want to, but in L.A. thanks to all the bait and holiday blockbusters clogging up the 'plexes and prestige venues, Aus. seems to have been almost prematurely yanked.
It was doing just fine, but scanning the newspaper ads today (MoviePhone is now a FUCKING MESS since they voice activated it), couldn't find a familiar theater within 20 miles still playing it.
Posted by: LexG
at December 29, 2008 11:26 PM
Your loss. If you like it on DVD you'll be kicking yourself for not seeing it on the big screen.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 30, 2008 12:51 AM
Hey, you're preaching to the choir; This is so obviously something that should be seen on a big screen, but it's currently down to three or four second-run/shoebox-sized theaters in L.A., a mere four weeks after its release.
And it was clearly doing well, and was somewhat well-liked by audiences. But then roughly *117* movies dropped in the last two weeks, and still-profitable things like Australia and Quantum of Solace have been shuffled off via the Sandman so all the limited-release bait and big dumb family movies can eat up screen real estate.
In fact, I'm sure those NOT in LA or NYC can still see Australia or Quantum in some nice theaters on big screens this very week, since the "bait" doesn't hit the heartland for three or four weeks.
Posted by: LexG
at December 30, 2008 01:10 AM
"But then roughly *117* movies dropped in the last two weeks," that means there were two weeks where you could have seen it.
Don't get me wrong, it's frustrating when ANY movie disappears that quickly, but this isn't exactly a limited release movie. It's been out there for everyone to see. But, I dunno, you chose The Spirit.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at December 30, 2008 02:13 AM
At least I was able to see "Nothing Like the Holidays" last night at a newish suburban AMC. The booth jockey threaded up the wrong film -- I caught the mistake during the previews and was able to flag down the manager.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at December 30, 2008 09:10 AM
hey chucky, by 'flag down the manager' do you mean 'wave a glock in his face and tell him you're gonna whack the booth jockey if he doesn't sort his shit out and thread up the right fucking flick?'
man, i hope so
Posted by: leahnz
at December 30, 2008 12:19 PM
Even Lex couldn't pump up his usual fanboy enthusiasm for THE SPIRIT...Sad.
Why didn't Miller just film the comic as Eisner wrote it? He of all folks should know better.
Posted by: christian
at December 30, 2008 05:44 PM
SAND SAREF OWNS YOUR ASS.
Posted by: LexG
at December 31, 2008 01:00 AM
"He of all folks should know better."
Not really. He of all folks seems to think that any comic book character, no matter how iconic, is up for interpretation. Y'know, like "the goddamn Batman"
Posted by: LYT
at December 31, 2008 01:26 AM
I spent the week in Des Moines - shudder - and as of last thursday, AUSTRALIA was already gone from theaters. And for a city of very moderate size, there are a shitload of screens there. All of the Christmas evening showings of MARLEY AND ME (which I actually almost-loved) ended up selling out at the monster-plex I went to.
Posted by: bmcintire
at December 31, 2008 09:47 AM
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