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January 29, 2009
Hmmm...
Why is Variety - in the form of two leading bloggers on the .com page - selling the absurd notion that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is chasing Slummy's tail closely?
It is my considered opinion that both Frost/Nixon and Milk have much stronger constituencies than Button at this point.
Is it really as simple as "the movie with the most nominations must be #2?"
While Bart is selling Benjamin Button coming up from behind, Thompson is selling Milk splitting Slummy and the alleged #2, Button.
Are we really this desperate to create a race (and perhaps, sell more ads) when we all have a very good sense of where things really are?
And what kind of crap is this? "This year the directors to a remarkable degree, have “final cut” over the Oscar race."
You mean... if one group out of all the others who have already gone the same way goes some other way, the race is back on... and studios better start spending on ads that won't move the bar much again?
Looking at the facts of the last decade of DGA votes, there have been 3 situations where DGA went with a director whose film did not win best picture. In 2 of those cases, the director won the Oscar in a split and the film lost. In 1, both the film and the director lost. And in 1 additional "off" example, the film won and the director did not.
2008 - The Coens - No Country
2007 - Marty Scorsese - The Departed
2006 - Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2005 - Clint Eastwood - Million $ Baby
2004 - Peter Jackson - Rings
2003 - Rob Marshall - Chicago
2002 - Ron Howard - A Beautiful Mind
2001 - Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger
2000 - Sam Mendes, American Beauty
1999 - Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
The thing is, by the end of January/early February, the die is usually cast. How many times in those 10 years did DGA wins seem more a comfirmation than a "final cut?" Scorsese could have won without The Departed winning. He was the focus of that year's strongest push.
Anyone else?
Not really? No Country, M$B, Rings 3, Beautiful Mind, and American Beauty were all machines by this part of the season... much as Slumdog now seems like a machine.
Of the four "surprise" DGA-to-Oscar occurances, you're looking at hard-charging underdogs Crash, The Pianist, and Shakespeare in Love. The fourth event of this was a real toss-up year with Soderbergh nominated twice, Ang Lee with a foreign language film, a squeezed in light comedy, and the biggest hit, Gladiator. An odd year.
Does anyone (aside from Variety) really see a hard charging underdog or a toss-up kind of year coming?
I'm sure that many journalists would love to spend a week analyzing a Danny Boyle loss at DGA. But I don't seem them getting their wish.
But if they do... look back at history. Whenever DGA seems to be telling us something surprsing, it seems to turn out that we are being misled.
Posted by dpoland at January 29, 2009 12:58 PM
Comments
Don't know much about history, Don't know much BIOlogy, don't know much about the French I took...
But I do know that I DO VOTE, and I'll be going for Fincher and Button whenever that damn ballot shows up.
Posted by: Don Murphy ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 29, 2009 04:14 PM
That's supposed to be a secret, Don.
But score one for The Button.
Posted by: David Poland at January 29, 2009 04:26 PM
I would agree Van Sant overtaking Boyle has a much better shot than Fincher (granted, still highly unlikely). We will know shortly.
Button reminds of The Aviator in a way. A "Big Prestige" period-movie, many nominations, could make a big shock on Awards night. In the end, just wasn't all that well-liked, though it did win some technical awards.
Best Supporting Actor aside, I do think the other three acting race have all the potential for upsets. I don't think Cruz is a lock and neither is Penn. Could be quite a surprising evening.
Posted by: Hopscotch at January 29, 2009 04:29 PM
An Academy voter is supposed to keep his votes secret? In perpetuity? Really?
Posted by: jeffmcm at January 29, 2009 04:38 PM
jeffmcm- he's funnin!
Posted by: Don Murphy at January 29, 2009 04:52 PM
Aw shucks.
Posted by: jeffmcm at January 29, 2009 04:54 PM
Actually, I was funnin' and offering the fact... according to Academy rules, members are not supposed to offer their voting info to the media or in any way promote any particular movie by saying they are voting for it in the media.
This rule is broken hourly, but it is the rule. I'm sure Don's membership is safe.
Posted by: David Poland at January 29, 2009 05:11 PM
Maybe Don doesn't consider this blog 'the media'.
Posted by: jeffmcm at January 29, 2009 05:19 PM
Slummy? Really? Time to call someone from Mumbai, and get them all riled up at Heat. No wonder those folks hate that title. It creates shitty abbreviation of the title. Oh yeah: AO Scott made the best point as to why Slumdog will have a hard time winning. Not as hard a time as winning as the greatest director alive known as FINCHER, but a hard time nonetheless.
Posted by: IOIOIOI at January 29, 2009 05:21 PM
Did MCN review any of the 5 eco films in competition at Sundance: Crude, Dirt!, Earth Days, No Impact Man, The End of the Line?
Posted by: T. Holly at January 29, 2009 05:25 PM
all i can say is if the pretty-to-look-at but ultimately empty and soulless 'button' wins the 'best pic' oscar while fincher's meticulously constructed and executed, atmospheric, well-acted and character driven, so-evocative-of-time-and-place 'zodiac' didn't even get a nomination, there is something seriously askew in the order of the universe and we have indeed slipped into the the bizarro world
Posted by: leahnz at January 29, 2009 05:58 PM
So who is Robert Wise supporting this year?...
Posted by: mutinyco at January 29, 2009 07:25 PM
He's busy fighting mercenary forces in Belize. It's a pretty hit and miss situation, but he will pull it off. HE'S FUCKING ROBERT WISE!
Leah: You might think I am a scumbag, I'm not, I'm not, but that's a great point. It could be seen as a LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD because this is Fincher's second (?) nomination? The dude needs it now. Before he pulls a Hitchcock on the Academy.
Posted by: IOIOIOI at January 29, 2009 09:50 PM
Guys, Robert Wise died about 3 1/2 years ago.
Godard is still kicking, though, not to mention Bertolucci, Scorsese, Coppola, etc.
Posted by: jeffmcm at January 29, 2009 11:22 PM
I would've said that Milk could challenge Slumdog but it won the fuckin' SAG ensemble prize!! Jesus christ. The love for that movie is ridiculous. It did not have the best acting ensemble of the year. Hell, it didn't even have one single performance that I'd cite as a "in a weak year maybe I'd nominate them" pick.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 at January 29, 2009 11:25 PM
Countdown to Frieda Pinto being the love interest in a Will Smith movie? Over-under on her third-billed Bond Girl potential? Even money on a midrange supporting career popping up 10th billed and cast as a luminous but downtrodden Latina in B-level American indies?
All I know is that guy who played the smarmy gameshow host gave the best performance, but every time I see him at one of these awards shows, he's all hopping around and mugging for the cameras and looking like an If They Made It child of Nathan Lane and Oliver Reed. Like, *settle down*, dude.
Posted by: LexG at January 30, 2009 01:03 AM
i don't think you're a scumbag, io, but perhaps a bit challenged in the anger management area
Posted by: leahnz at January 30, 2009 01:30 AM
and i agree about 'slumdog', it's a good movie but the best cast of the year? thin
ot, but i can't help myself:
Posted by: leahnz at January 30, 2009 01:34 AM
I keep getting it in my head that Richard Jenkins could upset. Penn won not so long ago, and Mickey does himself no favors with the canine worship and other wacky behavior. I say this without having yet seen Milk or The Wrestler. So, you know, grain of salt.
Posted by: yancyskancy at January 30, 2009 03:52 AM
I'm well aware that Robert Wise is dead. I was making a specific reference to something from when he was alive. But, you know, being ironic about it.
Posted by: mutinyco at January 30, 2009 07:04 AM
Then never mind.
Posted by: jeffmcm at January 30, 2009 03:18 PM
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