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February 05, 2009

20 Weeks - 2 Weeks To Go

Ladies & Gentlemen… children of all ages… seven Oscar nominees who really didn’t go into this season expecting to be attending the Academy Awards…

Viola Davis.
Courtney Hunt.
Richard Jenkins.
Scott Hamilton Kennedy.
Melissa Leo.
Martin McDonagh.
Michael Shannon.

All deserving.

All appreciating.

With nothing much to write about, no major upsets being seriously considered by anyone who knows much, and Michael Cieply at the NY Times apparently intent in reducing the paper of record to the Paper of Gossip before Nikki Finke can get her fangs into show night spoilers, this is where we really should be focusing.

I think we can say with 85% certainty that none of these Luck-Feeling (and Deserving) Seven are going to take home an Oscar of their own this year and 98% certainty that no more than one might score an upset. But that’s not the point.

The rest...

Posted by dpoland at February 5, 2009 10:50 PM

Comments

I said this on the last post, but I'll repeat because I'm a dick:

NO ONE BETTER TALK MARTIN MCDONAGH INTO WRITING OCEAN'S 14!!!!

He's way too good.

But Lex, I'm hoping that Clive Owen thing you're talking about will change with Duplicity, which has a great trailer AND Tony Gilroy

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 5, 2009 11:38 PM

Having seen all of the movies DP is referencing, I can honestly say that I'm happy for all of them to have been nominated.

Except "The Garden". Haven't seen it, can't vouch for it. But very happy especially for Shannon, Davis, Leo, and McDonagh.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 12:52 AM

The Garden is great. As was Scott Hamilton Kennedy's first doc, OT: Our Town. He has a knack for telling a story.

Probably won't beat Man on Wire, though.

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 02:24 AM

Am I the only one who thinks RDJ has a chance at upsetting Heath Ledger? Just the fact he was even nominated is a little worrying.

As the for The International, hasn't this movie come out about fifteen times already over the past couple of years?: mega-corporation-or-bank-funds-murder. Ugh. Already, we have two more of them this year: The International and State Of Play. It looks horrible.

Posted by: montrealkid [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 02:37 AM

RDJ was more worthy an Oscar win for *HAIL CAESAR* than he is for "Tropic Thunder."


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IdKh0OXlZc

Christ, if I hear one more white officeplace dork going around the cubicles quoting that "Full retard" speech in a phoney gruff-voiced "black guy" imitation, Downey's "Chaplin" nod should be retroactively replaced in the history books by Kurt Russell in "Captain Ron."

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 02:54 AM

Quit your job.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 03:18 AM

TBH, people were predicting Viola Davis would get nominated from the moment she was cast. Same goes for Michael Shannon.

Semantics.

"Let Courtney Hunt make a thriller for Sony." - YES. Christ, that movie was good.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 03:19 AM

"The International"?
Scenic and snazzy Euro travelogue; blah--and largely incoherent, definitely muddled--thriller.
It also features Naomi Watts' first genuinely boring post-"Mulholland Drive" performance (and yes, I'm including "Ring 2"). Not even sure why she agreed to sign on since nobody bothered writing her a part. Hope it was a good paycheck.
It's kind of sad that Tykwer, who pretty much invented the modern action film with "Run Lola Run" (five years before the first "Bourne"), is now reduced to directing flaccid "Bourne" knock-offs like this.
Do I even have to mention that "Int'l"--just like 2005's "The Interpreter"--is going to be a much bigger hit in Europe than it will in the US?

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 01:52 PM

interesting, movieman, i've heard mixed things so far. (how about 'duplicity', have you seen that yet?)

hey, did you mean to post your comment in the 'tykwer' thread? i just realised this is the 'two weeks to go' thread, you should copy it over if you're so inclined

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 02:23 PM

I didn't even realize there was a separate Tykwer thread, Leahnz.
I've been pretty much out of it this week, inundated with lots of roiling family drama (a funeral and all that that entails, plus my stepmom fell and broke her hip; etc., etc.)
Haven't seen "Duplicity" (not sure if it's even been screened on the coasts yet), but it does look promising. I love the idea of Gilroy loosening up and having a bit of fun. But am I the only one who kind of wishes that it was Clooney mixing it up with Julia (their chemistry was off the charts in "Ocean's 11" and "12," wasn't it?) instead of the perennially glum Clive Owens?

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 05:00 PM

Michael Cieply didn't reduce the New York Times to "the Paper of Gossip". Judith Miller did.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 05:26 PM

"With nothing much to write about, no major upsets being seriously considered by anyone who knows much, and Michael Cieply at the NY Times apparently intent in reducing the paper of record to the Paper of Gossip before Nikki Finke can get her fangs into show night spoilers, this is where we really should be focusing."

You have said some lame-brained things, DP, but this has to take the cake. You know what I think is the most embarrassing thing about your "take"? It's that you spend half of your time dissing so-called traditional media and the rest of your time dissing bloggers like Nikki Finke. Make up your mind already. But Finke isn't my beef with you here; Cieply is. Are you really so threatened about your position to be "in the know" on the Oscars telecast that you have to take such a defensive swipe at Michael Cieply? I mean seriously? You don't think people who know you don't already know that you know and how you know it? Give me a break.

And p.s. Viola Davis an underdog? Hardly.

This is all kinds of wrong.

Posted by: sashastone [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 08:16 PM

Non sequitor, Chucky.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 08:24 PM

bummer, movieman, hope things are on the upswing for you.

i'm looking forward to 'duplicity' as a fan of gilroy; clooney and julia together again would be cool, they did generate some heat, but hopefully owen can lighten up a bit and some fun will be had by all (i thought he and roberts had good chemistry in 'closer', a film i kinda despised)

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 08:45 PM

"TBH, people were predicting Viola Davis would get nominated from the moment she was cast. Same goes for Michael Shannon."

After most of the critics prizes were announced, I don't think anybody was predicting Michael Shannon would be nominated for an Academy Award. When Revolutionary Road first came out, and the critics started raving about his performance, I thought he was going to be the go to guy for a Ledger upset; but then one group after another just kept passing him over.

Even the BAFTAs, which had ten to a dozen first round nominees for Best Supporting Actor, which nominated almost everything else RR had to offer, while also giving Ralph Fiennes THREE nods of his own, didn't give Shannon squat. His hopes looked dead in the water; and not even the floating face down on the surface dead, I mean rotting meat and bones on the ocean floor dead.

Posted by: Hallick [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 09:25 PM

hallick, i'd have to agree with that re: shannon. (man, he was epic in 'bug')

Posted by: leahnz [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 09:29 PM

I loved THE INTERNATIONAL. It is the anti-Bourne. A real 1960s-style thriller with a truly smart script, one pisscutter of a shootout in a famous place, and best of all, it's edited like a movie, not that ADD shit that Michael Bay, et al pull out of their asses.

Posted by: Cadavra [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 11:13 PM

I didn't think Viola Davis and Michael Shannon were very big surprises. Davis's role in Doubt, for all of brevity, is probably the juiciest in the orignal play, and the actress who played it on Broadway won the Tony that year.

Posted by: RedheadedWonder [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2009 10:29 AM

I had to look it up, but the actress who won the Tony for Davis' Doubt role is Adriane Lenox. Wonder if there's a story behind her not getting the film. I can understand the box office advantage of Meryl Streep over Cherry Jones, but Viola Davis' longer film resume notwithstanding, it's not like she puts more butts in seats than Lenox. Reckon Lenox at least got a screen test? (she's had small roles in Black Snake Moan, My Blueberry Nights and Alvin and the Chipmunks.)

Posted by: yancyskancy [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2009 11:46 AM

Every year, there are "obvious" nominees who don't end up getting nominated.

This year, those include Leo DiCaprio, Michael Sheen, James Franco, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sally Hawkins, Cat Blanchett, Rosemarie DeWitt, and others.

Were any of these seven SHOCKS on the day of nomination? No. Not one. There were those who got nods from other groups and others, less so. But was Viola Davis a lock for Supporting Actress up until the hard push in December? Not really. And Shannon was The Forgotten Man in The Forgotten movie until he was nominated.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2009 01:21 PM

"Were any of these seven SHOCKS on the day of nomination? No. Not one. There were those who got nods from other groups and others, less so."

I'm right there with you in regards to Shannon's shocker of a nomination; but there actually is a person on your list of non-nominees that WAS a shock, and her name is Sally Hawkins. Maybe you had a few conversations with voting members of the Academy to get the feeling that she wasn't being considered, but to an outsider like myself, her snub was a real "holy crap!" moment to behold. She racked up a lot of WINS in the run up to this, and I thought she had that unknown-who-comes-out-of-left-field slot locked down.

Posted by: Hallick [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2009 02:40 PM

Yancy, Davis told this story on The View. She auditioned along with Lenox and many other black actresses. Davis just happened to win the part. Maybe Lenox played it too theatrical?

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2009 08:58 PM

After sitting through roughly *26* TV spots for The Wrestler with that depressing Boss song today, I have come to my yearly official realization:

I don't want to hear about ANY of these fucking movies again for at least another year.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2009 12:55 AM

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