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February 19, 2009
20 Weeks... 4 Days To Go...
I don’t think many people expect Slumdog Millionaire to get anything less than 6 Oscars, including Picture, Director, and Screenplay. But in the Top 8 categories, Rourke vs Penn, Winslet vs Streep vs Hathaway vs Leo, Cruz vs Davis, and Stanton vs Black are all still uncertain in many minds. Add Slumdog’s four and Heath Ledger as locks and you have half the top awards in play.
It’s the rarest kind of Oscar stat these days… one that doesn’t seem to have been written about endlessly… that in five of the last ten years and in the last four years in a row, the Best Picture winner has been nominated in one or no acting categories. (Slumdog, No Country For Old Men, The Departed, Crash. Lord of The Rings)
So much for the mythology of the Actor’s Branch controlling the Academy.
Later...
And then there is the show itself…
Which neither I nor this website is going to work to spoil for anyone.
It would be a mistake to expect too much.
And it would be a mistake to not pay close attention.
It would be a little silly of anyone to argue too intensely that the Oscars were ever a pure, innocent celebration of the best work of the preceding year. The stakes were, indeed, much, much lower. It was less of a marketing machine. But every major wanted its piece of the action and by 1936 (Year 6), there were a dozen Best Picture nominees (and the film won Best Actor and Actress). In 1945, they went to the five Best Picture format. In 1953, the show was first televised. That was two years before this year’s producer, Bill Condon was born.
And I think that is a real point to make.
And the final, not too exciting, charts...
And the final Gurus if you are looking for other picks...
Posted by dpoland at February 19, 2009 01:49 PM
Comments
That JAI HO! shit is the single most annoying piece of music since the "rapping" parts of Luscious Jackson's "Naked Eye Eyesore."
Posted by: LexG ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at February 19, 2009 02:46 PM
Am I reading your column correctly?---that There Will Be Blood had two acting nominations? It had only one.
Posted by: adorian at February 19, 2009 04:12 PM
Oy... late night counting of Paul Dano... thanks... fixing...
Posted by: David Poland at February 19, 2009 04:29 PM
I think if Sean Penn wins it'll be an upset on Mikcey Rourke's upset.
I'd say the charts on the mark. I expect one dark horse to win in there somewhere, possibly in the best original screenplay category, but place your bets everyone.
Posted by: Hopscotch at February 19, 2009 05:28 PM
This has been my sense for a while now, and I am going to stick with it: this Oscars broadcast will be screwy, and feature a few surprises. There is no spoon.
Posted by: IOIOIOI at February 19, 2009 11:38 PM
"But every major wanted its piece of the action and by 1936 (Year 6), there were a dozen Best Picture nominees (and the film won Best Actor and Actress)."
I believe you mean 1934 (Year 7, awarded in 1935).
Posted by: yancyskancy at February 20, 2009 12:41 AM
yeah, it was 1934 that had twelve nominees, iirc partially because that was the 18month season, when they shifted from the dual year, awarding in the summer schedule to the awarding in the spring, cover the previous year's twelve months schedule.
they scaled it back and by 36 were to the standard ten nominees, which they kept until they scaled it down to five due to the war related downturn in movie volume (crazily they scaled back just as things were about to ramp up and the movies would experience their biggest five year period as all the greatest generation men returned from the war but had not yet all settled down and made families (the five year process of them doing so was VERY good for the movies).
Posted by: movielocke at February 20, 2009 11:21 AM
Movielocke, which 5-year span are you talking about?
Posted by: jeffmcm at February 20, 2009 12:12 PM
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