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February 14, 2009
Friday Estimates by Saint Valentine of Klady

Five and a half years without The Mask seems to have built up a lot of wanna see... thank God they didn't put Jamie Kennedy in this one.
I thought it was particularly interesting that three different pay-tv networks were runing Jason content last night, often for hour after hour after hour.
The last Jason film (v. Freddy) opened to $36 million. This opening should beat that handily. It will also beat the opening of Marcus Nispel's first remake of a classic, Texas Chainsaw Massacre by a significant margin. Nispel's first in this form also did an unusually good near-3x opening domestically. If that holds here, we may be looking at the first $100 million Jason film... which one should note, has never been achieved by any of the Saw films. We also havenm't seen any horror remake of any kind do $100 million since The Grudge in 2004. Of course, it has to get there first...
The news for the other two new films was not as happy. Shopaholic came in behind the second Friday of HJNTIY and The International, perhaps the worst title for a studio movie in years, couldn't beat the third Friday of Taken, a movie that will shockingly be in a close fight with Paul Blart: Mall Cop for the title of Most Proftable Film Of First Quarter 2009.
And Blart hitting $100 million is important for Sony, where the dissapointment of Pink Panther 2 (which is also brutally painful for an in-trouble MGM) and The WinterSleeperNational (which was, at least, hedged with German tax credits) is sharp. The studio has a long wait now until Angels & Demons - just a couple of Screen Gems films in between - and the pressure on that one to come close to the numbers on the first of the franchise will be intense. And that's the only real franchise film of the year for the studio, so like I said... intense.
The hold for Coraline is encouraging.
And Slumdog remains the only Oscar nominee in the Top 10.
Posted by dpoland at February 14, 2009 09:21 AM
Comments
So in one day, the new Voorhees flick outgrosses the entire runs of Friday the 13th Part VII, Friday the 13th Part VIII, Jason Goes to Hell, and Jason X.
Posted by: Josh Massey
at February 14, 2009 09:37 AM
When the times are bad, more people flee to the cinema. that's pretty obvious...
just saw CORALINE last night, the art just blew me away. A must-see for anyone who's a fan of animated films.
Posted by: DeafBrownTrashPunk
at February 14, 2009 10:11 AM
"When the times are bad, more people flee to the cinema. that's pretty obvious..."
It's also obvious why, and it has nothing to do with depression-era pop psychology. For all of the well-documented expenses involved in a trip to the theater, movies are still the cheapest form of entertainment; and they're going to be the default outing for people who can't afford to travel, go to concerts, visit amusement parks, etc.
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 10:18 AM
Coraline is so dazzling that I'm taking yet another group to see the film next week. The 3D isn't flashy, but instead draws the viewer in.
If Friday the 13th were half as entertaining as Freddy vs Jason, then I'd be all for that opening day. Unfortunately, there is ZERO new innovation to the flick.
Posted by: Tofu
at February 14, 2009 10:21 AM
Disney blew it bigtime by not taking "Shopaholic" upmarket/arthouse where possible. It doesn't help that the trailer never ran before any of the more recent arty fare that I saw.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at February 14, 2009 10:40 AM
"Disney blew it bigtime by not taking 'Shopaholic' upmarket/arthouse where possible. It doesn't help that the trailer never ran before any of the more recent arty fare that I saw."
A while back I had the exact same thought about "Paul Blart:Mall Cop", but that one turned out alright, in spite of such a crazy oversight. Here's hoping that the marketing team behind "Fired Up" can learn from Shopaholic's lesson before it's too late.
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 10:57 AM
Chucky: The "Shopaholic" trailer ran in front of "The Reader" in the heart of Indiana ... along with the trailer for "Dragonball: Evolution." Weird.
Posted by: Nick Rogers
at February 14, 2009 11:01 AM
"Disney blew it bigtime by not taking 'Shopaholic' upmarket/arthouse where possible"
Not sure what yu mean by this. The movie's in 2500 theatres domestically. Seems like a pretty wide release pattern to me.
What they really needed to do it 1) open the wallet for a more marketable lead and 2) make a better movie.
Posted by: Wrecktum
at February 14, 2009 11:22 AM
Maybe Shopaholic should have touted all its Oscar nominees on the poster.
Posted by: djk813
at February 14, 2009 12:21 PM
"Maybe Shopaholic should have touted all its Oscar nominees on the poster."
Nah. That Kristin Scott Thomas snub this year screwed up the whole plan. They could've run a "Two-Time Academy Award Nominee" thing with her, Lynn Redgrave, John Lithgow, and Joan Cusack. Damn damn damn...
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 01:43 PM
"Taken, a movie that will shockingly be in a close fight with Paul Blart: Mall Cop for the title of Most Proftable Film Of First Quarter 2009."
Although, I'd hazard a guess and say Taken will slap Paul Blart all over the floor when it comes to worldwide figures. Mall Cop will surely be one of those movies that makes 75% or more of it's worldwide gross in America. But, I could be wrong...
I had been expecting Friday the 13th to make over $40 for ages. It may not be a good movie (it's out on Friday the 13th weekend in March here so I haven't seen it) but something about this opening makes me happy. Like, a Friday the 13th movie! It feels so retro. One of the side effects of the '80s renaissance, no doubt is "the kids" being insanely interested in pop icons of the era. Having heard about Jason, but never seeing him on the big screen except for maybe in Freddy vs Jason.
The Nightmare on Elm St remake will do the exact same, I reckon.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 14, 2009 04:33 PM
The public has spoken.
Friday '09 RULES. I'm gonna see it six more times before Tuesday. FUCK YEAH.
(The character of TRENT is pure Billy Zabka/Spader in Pretty in Pink smarmy rich-prick genius.)
I don't remember who said the chicks weren't hot but that Danielle Panebaker is CHARMING.
Posted by: LexG
at February 14, 2009 05:04 PM
While, while PAUL BLART:MALL COP is Sony's production, TAKEN is only Fox's acquisition.
Therefore, Sony would make more money on PAUL BLART:MALL COP.
Posted by: marychan
at February 14, 2009 05:15 PM
"The public has spoken."
In all of our collective experiences, isn't that usually a BAD sign?
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 05:17 PM
Wow, that's amazing. Friday the 13th did a lot better than what I expected. I wonder how much Michael Bay gets from producing these horror remakes.
Can't wait to see Coraline. Hope it holds up well.
Posted by: sharonfranz
at February 14, 2009 05:19 PM
Lex-
But how do you REALLY think the new "13th" stacks up next to Nispel's "Chainsaw" reboot in terms of atmospherics, mise en scene, pacing and previous hot chick standards set by Jessica Biel....? (I think you already know my answer.)
I grant you that "13th"'s Trent seems cut from the same cloth as Spader's immortal preppie shit in "PIP," but there's no real characterization to speak of....or anything approximating an actual performance by the blandly anonymous actor in question.
Posted by: movieman
at February 14, 2009 05:27 PM
"The Nightmare on Elm St remake will do the exact same, I reckon."
You know, baby boomers take a lot of shit for being self-obsessed and only interested in the highpoints of their own glory days, but my own generation doesn't seem any better with this endless remaking crap either. We weren't meant to see the day when "Beverly Hills 90210" and that effing "Melrose Place" would get remade for television!
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 05:31 PM
Movieman,
Well, almost nobody matches the standards of Jessica Biel, looks or acting wise.
But I get what you're saying to some degree. I think this one is slicker, less grainy than TCM '03, has less of that vile, diseased feel (even if you think it was a put-on in Nispel's remake.) It has the same DP (Daniel C. Pearl, who also did TCM '74) and some of the throwaway bits (the mannequin guy) seem like tacked-on bits of unpleasant business out of his prior remake, but in the end, you're kind of hampered by the FRIDAY series always having to adhere to a pretty rigid formula, one that's inherently more straightforward than the format set by Hooper's '74 TCM.
I'll concede that I liked the first hour better than the last third, where motivations and editing sense seemed to go out the window-- At one point I'm pretty sure the protagonists, who've been tortured and tormented by him all day, stupidly go into Jason's crash pad *of their own accord*, a move so idiotic I could barely pay attention to anything that followed.
I DID like that narrative fakeout where he spends more than a reel on a certain group of character we think might be the stars of the film. And Jason remains such an iconic image and character that all the hunt-and-stalk sequences were polished and exciting. Guess I liked the characters more than you, too-- Not that they're really up against much on the likability scale compared to the douche camp director who looked like Alan Derschowitz in the FRIDAY 80, or the fat redhead with the masks in Part 3, or the HATEFUL MOTHERFUCKERS from series-nadir THE FINAL CHAPTER.
Posted by: LexG
at February 14, 2009 05:37 PM
'The Nightmare on Elm St remake...'
oh, that just made me shed a wee tear. why don't they just remake ever single good movie ever made and be done with it
Posted by: leahnz
at February 14, 2009 05:46 PM
I just hope they keep, "Piss yer pants!", in the new Last House...
Posted by: mutinyco
at February 14, 2009 06:07 PM
"Slicker than TCM '03"? Jesus Christ, is it possible for a movie to be so slick that your eyes glide off it onto the theater walls?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 14, 2009 06:34 PM
"oh, that just made me shed a wee tear. why don't they just remake ever single good movie ever made and be done with it"
Because they'll just have to start all over again and call them "reboots".
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 06:35 PM
ha, too true, hallick. then it'll be 'reimaginings' and 'reworkings' and 'retellings', until it gets really stupid like 'redoings'
that reminds me re: remake/reboots, i've been on a john carpenter bender lately - i think i've mentioned before that i tend to get a bit obsessive, i guess at least i can admit it - so i've re-watched several of his flicks and i've been reading up on him some, and came across this quote from carpenter re: remakes, which was interesting and a little surprising:
'I'm flattered if someone comes to me with the idea of remaking one of my films. Remake or original, making a movie still comes down to old-fashioned hard work. If it's based on another film, well, so be it. Remakes have been part of cinema since its earliest days - think of A Star Is Born (1937), which was remade numerous times. And they're especially big right now because it's become increasingly difficult to lure audiences into theaters. Advertising a remade title that may be familiar to audiences can hopefully cut through the clutter of titles and products that one sees.'
Posted by: leahnz
at February 14, 2009 06:58 PM
Hell, he made one of the best remakes of all time (The Thing) so he knows what he's talking about.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 14, 2009 07:03 PM
too true, jeff. (maybe i'll start all my posts with 'too true, _________' from now on)
Posted by: leahnz
at February 14, 2009 07:11 PM
"Hell, he made one of the best remakes of all time (The Thing) so he knows what he's talking about."
Yeah, but that last sentence ("Advertising a remade title that may be familiar to audiences can hopefully cut through the clutter of titles and products that one sees") sounds like the rallying cry of every dumb ass executive that ever greenlit a project just for the dollar signs and nothing else. I'm not loving the sound of an artist like Carpenter preaching the path of least resistance. So much for old-fashioned hard work.
Posted by: Hallick
at February 14, 2009 07:50 PM
And need anybody point out that the remake of THE FOG was pure ass?
Posted by: christian
at February 14, 2009 07:58 PM
too true, christian.
yes, that carpenter quote seems a bit schizophrenic, like he switches hats mid-comment from hard-working artist/director to marketing dept executive
Posted by: leahnz
at February 14, 2009 08:09 PM
He's saying that he sees the reasoning for remakes, and that after that point it's necessary to actually, you know, make a good movie. (He's also responsible for a pretty bad remake, Village of the Damned, so praise only goes so far).
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 14, 2009 08:32 PM
I would argue that THE THING wasn't a remake at all, just more faithful to the actual short story.
Posted by: christian
at February 14, 2009 08:38 PM
Posted by: leahnz
at February 14, 2009 09:05 PM
Tofu-
Agree.
"Coraline" 3D is exactly the reason why 3D will "save" the industry. I saw it in 3D last week and there were a good 7-8 families (with 2-3 kids) in there. The kids were silent and that movie is weird and creepy and tey were still *in* the movie. I truly feel 3D-as it is now, not all like, stuff pointing at you- brings people back to how movies should be seen.
Posted by: don lewis (was PetalumaFilms)
at February 14, 2009 09:24 PM
Agreed Don. I just got back from Coraline and it was the best experience I've ever had at the AMC Woodland Hills 16 (the source of most of my movie going horror stories). A full audience, people of all ages, and no one made a sound out of place. No texting, no talking, no people getting up and moving around. Everyone was just enraptured.
Posted by: Scott Mendelson
at February 14, 2009 09:36 PM
John Carpenter was one of the first real interviews I did back in 2002. Very cool, smoked a lot of cigarettes, and loved PT Anderson and the movie version of Charlie's Angels.
And speaking of Coraline: http://www.filminfocus.com/video/henry_selick_interview_with_filminfocus
Posted by: mutinyco
at February 14, 2009 10:42 PM
"why don't they just remake ever single good movie ever made and be done with it."
I think they are, right?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, but the similarities between TCM '03 and Ft13th '09 are many.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 15, 2009 12:06 AM
Long as we're talking about Carpenter AND Friday the 13th all in one thread, just wanted to make the observation that, having just watched Friday the 13th 1980 (and drinking through the FAR superior sequel now): Carpenter and Cundey were some goddamn visual geniuses because even though, yeah, maybe movies aren't quite cut that classical way anymore, and Jamie Lee rocks some bell bottoms... the first 3 Halloweens are pretty timeless and handsomely made, with great cinematography that hasn't really aged and very little to give away that they're 30 years old.
Friday the 13th, on the other hand, looks and feels like Meatballs With a Gunny Sack-Wearing Slasher. It's totally awesome in its 1980 way, but this shit as dated as the Old West.
Curiously, hair and fashions have come around so much, that the kids in the 2009 FRIDAY look like they just stepped out of 1980. Every kid today has that '70s-style shaggy ringlet Bad News Bear hair... That shit was as dead as disco during the mullettastic late 80s, Chandler Bing '90s, and buzzed-head late 90s-early 00s.
Posted by: LexG
at February 15, 2009 12:29 AM
did no-one find the alien creature on the book cover for 'who goes there?' (the short story upon which 'the thing' is based) totally wicked? i was enchanted by its googly-eyes and bizarre red finger&toenails
Posted by: leahnz
at February 15, 2009 01:20 AM
i forgot:
'Friday the 13th, on the other hand, looks and feels like Meatballs With a Gunny Sack-Wearing Slasher. It's totally awesome in its 1980 way, but this shit as dated as the Old West.'
too true, lex
Posted by: leahnz
at February 15, 2009 01:21 AM
I'll agree that the first two Halloweens are pretty good, well-made (in the case of the first, perfectly-made) films, and that no Friday the 13th film was ever more than mediocre. Carpenter as director/producer made a big difference, and sorry, Sean Cunningham and Steve Miner, but you just were never up to that level.
Leah: what book cover? I've never seen that.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at February 15, 2009 04:12 AM
I think some are giving too much credit to the "Coraline" 3-D. It's fine and I like its subtlety, but I'd argue people are "enraptured" by the movie because it's terrific and only parenthetically because it's in 3-D.
Posted by: chris
at February 15, 2009 08:37 AM
Wow. Great opening for Friday the 13th. Just goes to show you how people gravitate towards the known, especially in these times. Always thought this was going to big -- It's able to be an event for 4 quadrants. Who would have thought that had Shaye been able to hold on for another year he would have had an amazing slate.
Poor Disney and Shopaholic. You could see them running towards this wall full steam ahead -- but they had a total unknown -- my Mom thought it was Amy Adams -- and a really crappy movie. It's tomato meter rating is actually less than Friday the 13th. I've never seen a company put so much effort towards a film most studios would throw away or bury. They need Dreamworks bad.
In some ways Sony had the same problem with International. Clive Owen is at least more known than whatsherface but this was a relatively generic thriller coming after Taken which had already filled the generic action thriller role.
Posted by: danielle
at February 15, 2009 11:41 AM
I dunno Chris. For what it's worth, one of my worst movie going experiences of 2008 was during a screening of the equally terrific cartoon Wall-E. Kids were talking, parents were ignoring them, texting, walking around, etc. I'm not saying that 3D was the only reason, but it was the most notable variable.
Posted by: Scott Mendelson
at February 15, 2009 12:46 PM
The single most depressing Fri 13th ever created. I've had the (mis)fortune to see every Friday in a cinema with an opening night audience and I can't understand the success of this entry. It deserves a drop of 150%, incl refunds and tips handed back. I also cannot believe that LexG and no one else saw that Trent was channeling Tom Cruise, watch it again and you'll see he's his fucking doppleganger from Magnolia.
This film setup deaths and then completely shot their load in an unmemorable fashion. Like Peter North attempting to pull out but lamely shooting the load inside his jeans. A topless waterskier !! where was the topless decapitation for fucks sake.. with the nude torso still skiing. What a waste. The whole film was created without any humour at all. It was miserable and meanspirited.. completely devoid of any fun. The stoner mechanic excepted. The opening tits in the campfire sex scene were the ugliest ever seen in a friday film. They looked like two glowing fibreglass orbs covered with vaseline and stretched latex. Pass. What was with Jason's underground lair? The dude was like a retarded backwoods MacGuyver. The cops spent 6 weeks looking for the missing girl. But they didn't find the school bus or all this crazy shit around. Even the obnoxious kids found missing items in every scene. What am I doing nitpicking this piece of shit. I have no idea except that when a Friday film is shit its still fun in many aspects. This film just went through the motioins created by hateful people who if given the opportunity would rape every audience member, steal their wallet and then proceed to Peter North them in the face before they leave.
Worse than Part 8. And that says it all.
Part Four rules them All.
Posted by: Jeffrey Boam's Doctor
at February 15, 2009 01:12 PM
jeff, i posted a link above somewhere, i'll copy it here again:
http://i363.photobucket.com/albums/oo78/leahnzwgtn/Who_goes_there.jpg
Posted by: leahnz
at February 15, 2009 01:44 PM
Coraline is a unique piece of art. The idea that it augers anything for the future of 3D is a bit of a reach, no?
Posted by: David Poland
at February 15, 2009 04:14 PM
Its so sad to see Frost/Nixon not have the box-office it so deserves. It is a fantastic movie with amazing acting and it truly was enrapturing in all ways....and yet it seems to have been completely forgotten at the theatres....even with the oscar nominations it received it stll is unreceived....what is up with that?
Posted by: Derek
at February 15, 2009 04:50 PM
We've already discussed that a lot, Derek. Scan a few days back and you'll find Dave's discussion on how Universal botched the release.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at February 15, 2009 05:20 PM
JBD, I spotted Cruise in the F13 BYOB thread. LYT has a point about the sex scene. I'd say it's potentially watershed. Is Mr. Skin a research tool? I mean, is it highly searchable by rating and type of nudity?
Posted by: T. Holly
at February 15, 2009 06:02 PM
T. HOLLY, not a SINGLE FUCKING WORD you ever type MAKES ANY FUCKING SENSE.
WHO THE FUCK PAYS YOU to work on the fringes of the critic or film biz? You are more incoherent than Del Toro in Usual Suspects.
Posted by: LexG
at February 16, 2009 12:09 AM
I rather enjoyed Shopaholic. Nothing original going on, but it was slick and stylish enough to breeze past most of my objections. Fisher is, as Lex said, CHARMING, and extremely talented. This would have been a star-making role if they had paired her with a known quantity. The public loves to "discover" new talent, especially when it's served up with something familiar (see Renee Zellweger in Jerry Maguire). Fisher needed a Hugh Grant, not Hugh Dancy.
Posted by: yancyskancy
at February 16, 2009 01:23 AM
When you wake up from your drunken stupor LG, use a blow dryer on your thinning hair and drop it in a tub of water and retrieve it.
Posted by: T. Holly
at February 16, 2009 09:15 AM
See, there's another reason to tolerate Lex -- he has proved that T. Holly CAN be coherent when she wants to be.
I kid, T. Don't hurt me.
Posted by: yancyskancy
at February 16, 2009 11:25 AM
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