« Super Commericals | Main | The Next Step Towards The Sad Future Of SAG »

February 02, 2009

Whatever Happened to The Oscar Bump?

The most surprising numbers were not those garnered by the success of a quite bad direct-to-DVD title sold brilliantly by Fox.

The most surprising numbers were 2126, 1633, 882, 1105, and 1002.

Those are the screen counts of Button, Slummdog, Milk, FroNx and Reader,

A year ago, the analogous screen counts were 2475, 1507, 1367, 1273, and 1010

The year before, 2797, 1850, 1453, 1090, and 720.

Noticing a trend?

But even more compelling is the fact that four of this year’s five films were all waiting for nominations for any significant expansion at all.

Button opened wide and topped out at 2988 venues.

But none of the other four nominees had cracked 615 screens before nomination. And while all four have expanded, the only one pushing for a major commercial opportunity is Slumdog, which is up to 1633 screens now.

What does it say that Frost/Nixon’s response to its nomination was an expansion from 205 screens to 1105 and not more? That’s almost the exact same count as Notorious, a very specifically niche movie from Searchlight, which in its third weekend, down about 550 screens, still did better than Oscar nominee Frost/Nixon last weekend.

What does it say when Milk goes from 250 screens on the weekend of the nomination to 882 screens this last weekend? How much confidence is there that there is an audience for this film, even with the support of the big nomination?

The Reader pretty much doubled its screen count… from 500 to 1000. The last time Harvey Weinstein had a picture lurk around, waiting for a nomination to expand (and got the nod), was Chicago in 2002/03, which went from 623 screens to 1841 on nominations week and then to 2268 the week after and then 2355 the week after that and then 2447 the week after that and then 2600 the week after that. The film’s high count was 2701, the weekend after it won Best Picture.

The good-ish news is that while the screen count on the first weekend of February is down 884 from last year and 1161 from the year before (even with the staying-tiny Letter From Iwo Jima lowering the count significantly), weekend box office for the 5 nominees is right in between the two previous years.

But the reason it’s good-ish and not good is that, as noted before, these films are not just reaping the benefit of a nomination, but they are getting as wide a release now as they ever will, barring an upset of Slumdog by one of the three smaller releases.

None of the Small Release Trio seems to have a shot at cracking $30 million. $20 million will be an achievement at this rate for two of the three.

You have to go back all the way to 1996 to find a year with more than one BP nominee of five with less than $30 million at the end of its domestic run. And then, it was just two, not three. If you go back twenty-five years, to 1983, you will find The Right Stuff, Tender Mercies, and The Dresser all falling into this sad category.

In the last twenty years, even one BP title grossing under $30 million total domestic has happened only nine times.

Everyone has been aware for a few years now that the idea of the nomination bump has diminished significantly. But people had stopped using the “small release in December, go wide with the nomination” strategy in significant numbers, mostly because of the shorter Oscar season. This year, more films used it, four of them got in (although Slumdog is borderline, with a mid-November small release pattern)… but only one, Slumdog, has really gone anything close to wide. And even that film has not gone quite as wide as Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon when that foreign language film got nominated in 2001.

The good answer to all this is that Milk and Frost/Nixon and The Reader have good-sized niche audiences and have little chance of going mainstream… and that the studios know and respect this and are being cautious with the money of their parent companies.

But times are changing… as we see over and over and over again lately.

Posted by dpoland at February 2, 2009 02:24 PM

Comments

"Milk": Gay martyr, sold by referencing a Harvey Weinstein Special. Technically a re-release since it went national at Xmas and had been losing theaters before the noms came out.

"Frost/Nixon": Dead politician, sold with "Academy Award Nominee" and another Harvey Weinstein special. Already gone from the Hamptons.

"The Reader": Holocaust movie, this year's Harvey Weinstein special and another "Academy Award Nominee".

These 3 titles will lose theaters in the next 2 weeks thanks to product flow. The public sees all this name-checking/Oscar-Whoring crap for what it truly is, Hype and B.S. (Biggie Smalls, R.I.P.)

Speaking of Oscar nominees, "Waltz with Bashir" was 1 week and out in South Jersey. Mismanagement by SPC or a reaction to the country of origin?

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 03:58 PM

Chucky, would you do the universe a favor and either EXPLAIN your material, or stop spreading it around?

As it stands now, everyone who reads your postings gets a little stupider as a result, because it by and large appears to be insane bullshit.

To detail, you say "Gay martyr", "Dead politician" and "Holocaust movie" as if those are all bad things. You use "Harvey Weinstein Special" as if we're all supposed to know what that means, and even though Weinstein was only involved in one of the three movies. There is NOTHING WRONG per se with name-checking or referencing the Oscars in ads.

And yeah, I bet there's a big anti-Israel contingent in Atlantic City and Camden to the point of boycotting a relatively obscure animated documentary mostly in a foreign language.

Your extrapolations and conclusions are absolutely, positively, insane, irrational, and unwarranted.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 05:06 PM

Oh, and here's a question that can be answered with a simple yes or no to each:

Have you seen any of the four above-mentioned movies (The Reader, Milk, Frost/Nixon, Waltz with Bashir)?

If not, why do you consider yourself capable of slamming each of them?

And how do you explain away the dishonesty inherent in that action?

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 05:10 PM

What was the lousy Fox direct-to-DVD movie? Behind Enemy Lines 3?

If so, I give more credit to WWE on marketing that than Fox.

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 05:24 PM

No, Poland is talking about TAKEN, and it's clear from his statement that he hasn't seen it.

Posted by: BurmaShave [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 05:29 PM

The phrase "vicious circle" comes to mind.

Posted by: Blackcloud [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 06:48 PM

How is Milk a "gay martyr?" His sexual preference had absolutely nothing to do with his death.

Posted by: gradystiles [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 07:15 PM

That is such a strange and passive aggressive way to sum up the success of Taken, a great time at the movies.

Posted by: Rothchild [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 08:32 PM

Uh... saw it Burma... paid my fare and sat in a real live movie theater... there are 3 or 4 close-to-something sections of the film, but it has an painful first act, not well-shot action, and gives us the weakest version of virtually every cliche of that genre. Great idea, in a seen-it way... bad, bad movie, unfit to carry B13's jock.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 09:49 PM

I wouldn't be calling anything starring Liam Neeson "direct to DVD." Sure, it might suck (haven't seen it), but his name and the genre make it more than that in sheer marketing terms, no?

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 09:55 PM

TAKEN FUCKING RULES.

Take a seat on this one, Poland.

Neeson for Best Actor '09.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 11:30 PM

DP, why do you keep insisting on comparing Taken with Banlieue 13, when the movies have very little in common?

(And can we retire "carry ___'s jock" as a phrase in polite society? That phrase is not fit to carry "it fucking sucked"'s jock.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2009 11:40 PM

Pierre Morel directed both films. I think that's a pretty big link between the two movies, and a good reason to compare them.

Posted by: 555 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 06:22 AM

Doubt never went wider than 1200 screens and will get to $30 million. I guess they were smart to go that wide at Xmas, when they were the only game in town in smaller markets.

Posted by: Rob [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 08:45 AM

I blame (in part) blogs and bloggers. For many years now they have been nothing but killjoys in regards too Awards anticipation and importance.

That elitist attitude cultivated online for many years probably split over to the general population. One look at any of the (more or less) general population film blogs reveal the sorry state of affaris we are in. It's not just AICN anymore. And this is why Bart and Goldstein actually had a point, before they too had to be forced into if you can't win them bandwagon.

Now if only those snobs actually had good taste and weren't mativated by their egos and tiny penises than I would have said it were more of a good thing than a bad thing.

Alas, the tinypricked nose twirlers have their way.

P.S. Of course it's only part of the picture but I think it has as much to do with the source of the problem as any other issue.

Posted by: Roman [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 09:22 AM

What about the fact that, along with the 24 hour news cycle, we now seem to have a 365 day awards cycle? Even the meager impact of the critics awards has gotten diluted when it seems like every podunk hamlet with a four digit population is forming their own critics association and doling out yet another set of prizes (usually the same set as the other 89 groups of critics).

By the time the Oscar nominations are released, the most likely nominees have already been feted ad nauseum in this country. You can't really add buzz to something that's already been put on display for two or three months in the run up. I'm already tired of "Milk" and "Frost/Nixon" and "Slumdog Millionaire" sight unseen at this point. The new "Friday the 13th" movie seems more intriguing now.

Posted by: Hallick [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 10:59 AM

Speaking as a distrbution vet, going too wide has been a dumb idea way too often. Even commercial films playing in wee towns frequently don't even earn back the cost of the prints, thus cutting into profits, if there are any. Ten to 12 hundred prints is plenty for upscale films like MILK and F/N, which will not do well in most of the South and most towns smaller than Dayton or Duluth.

Posted by: Cadavra [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 12:52 PM

Morel may have directed both films (which I realized shortly after posting that) but (a) they still aren't that commonly marketable - one is a movie primarily about stunts and athletic performances, and the other is a star vehicle/revenge thriller;

And it's not like when, say, Children of Men came out everyone compared it to Harry Potter/Azkaban.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 02:07 PM

J-Mc... your wide-eyed, big-mouthed innocence is astounding at times.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 05:00 PM

Thank you.
If you meant it in some other way, please elaborate.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 05:07 PM

I'm with Jeff on this one. What the hell are you going on about Poland? One movie is meat and potatoes American fare. While the other is a trippy French movie. Seriously, you really, do not need to play in these situation.

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 05:40 PM

Probably too late to the party with too obvious a comment, but as others here have pointed out in prior threads, fucking EVERYTHING got chased out of theaters *this* January because the market's been flooded with new '09 flicks, many of which did pretty well and went so wide that 14- and 18-plex theaters were brooming out shit that was STILL successful.

Oscar flicks aside, what happened to Marley and Me, Valkyrie, Bedtime Stories, Australia... even Quantum of Solace? Those were all still posting decent numbers and per-screens, but are all effectively GONE and have been for a couple weeks. In prior years, something like Marley or Bedtime could've stuck around till mid-Feb or longer. But when multiplexed need to clear two screens for Mall Cop, one for Notorious, one for Bride Wars, My Bloody Valentine... You get the point: Even the shit that IS catching on gets 86'd for the new.

Plus, more than even usual, this year I think there really IS something to that Joe Six-Packish idea that the regular folks don't care about these movies. Much as it PAINS ME to come down on the more conservative, LCD side of that argument-- it's something a Nicol D or a "Dirty Harry" would posit-- but so many of the contention flicks this year were stuff that would NEVER catch on in the heartland, no matter how much acclaim or how many awards.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 3, 2009 11:09 PM

"Much as it PAINS ME to come down on the more conservative, LCD side of that argument"

Aren't you the guy who keeps singing the praises of George W. Bush?

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2009 02:24 AM

ANYONE ELSE HORNY AS FUCKING FUCK?

EVERY SECOND OF THE DAY WHERE YOU'RE NOT IN A VAG IS FUCKING BULLSHIT.

I DESPISE MYSELF.

WHEN I GET FAMOUS, I will be THE BIGGEST ASSHOLE EVER.

FUCK THE WORLD.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2009 02:56 AM

LexG is correct: The general public doesn't care about Oscar Bait unless it has a mass-appeal hook. That's why "Benjamin Button" and "Gran Torino" are hits while "Frost/Nixon" is not.

As to those who approve of name-checking and Oscar-Whoring? "Wide-eyed, big-mouthed innocence" indeed.

BTW Camden and Atlantic City have been black/Latino for at least 40 years -- all the whites live in the suburbs. Besides, not everyone marches in lockstep with Big Government and the Liberal Media.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2009 05:28 PM

Chucky, I'll ask you again:

Have you seen any of Frost/Nixon, Waltz with Bashir, Milk, or The Reader; and if not (which is what I presume), how do you logically justify badmouthing each of the four of them?

It is a profoundly dishonest thing to do and it shows that you aren't arguing your points in good faith; your refusal to explain or justify your irrational arguments is further proof.

And yeah, I know who lives in Camden and Atlantic City - that was the point I was making.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2009 06:45 PM

Oh, and as for 'innocence'? Educate me. Prove your case. Provide evidence and corrobrating arguments. That's what I've been asking for for YEARS now, ever since you introduced these insane-on-their-face notions.

But you don't want to do that, do you.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 4, 2009 06:49 PM

Georgia Rule.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 05:24 PM

A-plus, Chucky.

Posted by: LexG [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 05:45 PM

GAHHHH! That's not an argument! That's ONE MOVIE!

Did you even see that movie, Chucky? I will give you a thousand dollars, addressed to the New Jersey Home for Asperger's Research, if you say yes.

Your position is irrational. But sadly, arguing with a crazy person is also irrational, so I guess that makes us even.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2009 08:35 PM

We can safely say the Oscar Bump is dead for another year.

Posted by: Chucky in Jersey [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2009 01:07 PM

We can safely say that you have not seen any of the movies you are talking about, as expected.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2009 03:54 PM

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Remember me?