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Wow that was... frustrating. Apart from not even knowing what some of these are (Shorts?) it was hard to figure which movies are considering "drama" or "thriller".

For realz?

There aren't that many on there that I would consider to be a straight "drama" but there are some that could cross over into that territory. And where does a movie stop/start being a "thriller". etc

No, no, I wasn't refering to your post, Kam. Just this silly movie theater quiz...

Terminator, Pelham, Transformers, Public Enemies, GI Joe and Basterds are going to COMMAND.

Absolutely every fucking thing else is SUMMER KIDS' MOVIE CARTOON BULLSHIT and can be rightfully skipped by anyone over the age of 7.

Wake me when it's September and good movies start coming out again.

You do know two of the movies you mentioned are based on cartoons originally created to sell toys to 7 year-olds, right?

Christ, Lou, give me some credit, mayne.

But those cartoons didn't have MEGAN "GOD" FOX or that chick with the giant rack from P2.

That was tough. I picked Transformers 2 as the biggest mega-movie, although I think it will make considerably less than the first one. Harry Potter is a #2 to be reckoned with.

Biggest comedy? Night at the Museum 2 (or is that a family movie)? Land of the Lost for #2.

Biggest family flick? Up, followed by Ice Age 3D.

Biggest thriller? Angels & Demons, followed by Pelham 123.

Biggest chick flick? The Proposal, followed by Ghost of G'fds Past.

Biggest drama? Public Enemies. Is District 9 a drama?

Okay, glad others are as boggled as I was.

Why was UP left off the pull-down menu?

Never mind. Just overlooked it. Sorry.

Looking over this list and trying to choose box-office champs, I realized how few sure things there are in terms of the upper echelon of grosses. There's a lot of pre-sold brand-name stuff but nothing that seems like a lock for $250 million-plus.

This time last year, I certainly wouldn't've pegged Dark Knight for doing $500 mil, but I definitely said, "this movie is going to be big -- bigger than the last one." And Indiana Jones made a fine default choice for #1 grosser, even though it didn't play out that way.

This year, I don't see anyting with huge growth potential like that. I could see Wolverine doing 200+ based on the last couple of X-movies, but I could also see it doing "only" 150 or so, which (I hope) would be fine. I guess Star Trek is looking like it has breakout potential, but I don't think anyone would be *shocked* if it failed to hit 200. Same deal with Terminator. Night at the Museum 2 could outgross the first one's 250, but it seems like competition is heavier this time, and I doubt it will pull a Shrek 2. Same goes for Ice Age 3; if it's the highest-grossing of the franchise, it won't be by a lot. I could see UP maybe surprising based on slightly diminished (gross-wise) expectations for Pixar, but could also see it doing the typical 220 or so.

Transformers and Potter will both be solid top-five or even top-three grossers but, again, it won't be shocking if they fail to outgross their predecessors.

Maye Public Enemies will make a surprising amount for a Mann movie (though not necessarily for a big-budget post-Pirates Depp movie).

Obviously, the thing about surprise megahits is that a lot of people can't just pick them out from a list... but right now it looks like a lot of movies likely to land in the $200 million range without much zooming past $300 million.

I switched Potter from "mega-movie" to "family," yet put Land of the Lost in "comedy" rather than "family."

I put the arty-looking All Good Things as #2 drama (behind Time Traveler's Wife, which could just as easily been a "chick flick") because I had no idea what else could even qualify.

Is anyone else as UNDERWHELMED by this summer's movie selections? Besides UP and possibly Star Trek and Public Enemies, depending on how Abrams and Mann pull those together. But most of these films seem like money grabs...granted that is the usual summer business model....but was anyone really screaming for a Di Vinci Code 2, T4, Night at Museum 2, Ice Age 3..or the 70's rehash Land of the Lost or Taking 123(netflix the orginal if you wanna see why the new trailer pisses off all of us who love that 70's classic) or 80's toys G.I.Joe or Tranny 2.....

Last year..I was really looking forward to Iron Man, Indy, Panda, WALL E, Dark Knight, and for a sick guilty pleasure mamma mia.

I am sure that there will be 300 million grossers, but either the studios don't have the goods, or they cannot put together a quality trailer anymore.

Once again..Thank god for Pixar....

My list of most anticipated movies for this summer is:

Public Enemies
Away we Go
O'Horten
Up
Taking Woodstock
Potter
Julie and Julia
Pelham (though I have an awful feeling about this one)

And based on reviews maybe Whatever Works, Bruno, Drag me to hell.

First things noticed among the list:

1. There really seems to be no clear breakouts that are not already brand names. Perhaps G-Force...perhaps GI Joe (just because it is not a sequel) but beyond that, everything seemed tailored to fit.

2. Many of the films did overlap categories. Bruno is quite clearly only a comedy where both Imagine That and Ugly Truth could overlap into family and chick flick yet I put those two as the top comedies because I think they will both outdo Bruno.

3. I think many of these films will be solid 150ish type hits but many may struggle to get to 200. I will not be surprised if Star Trek, Wolverine, Angels and Demons, Public Ememies and even T4 do not near the golden 200 million. For that honour I think only Potter and Transformers are locked.

4. Even at that, I wonder if the Potter craze has started to pass. I for one am all through with the little boy with the magic wand even though I have seen every film in the franchise theatrically so far. They just feel like the same film over and over at this point. All foreplay no release.

Seems like a predictable summer if nothing else.

No real wild cards here like Iron Man or Tropic Thunder.

Jesse is dead on. On the plus side, this will be one of the less predictable summers in recent memory. Hopefully it will also mean less monster opening weekends and more films that open solid and play for awhile.

On that note, Fast & Furious's $72 million could remain tops for 2009 all the way until the end of June. Specifically if Wolverine only performs to expectations (even before the leak, it felt like a $55 million opener) and Star Trek doesn't break out, nothing else really seems like a $70 million+ 3 day opener until Transformers 2. Especially with Harry Potter 6 moving to Wednesday, if Transformers doesn't hit $100 million+ (which I think it will at this point), we could have the first summer since 2003 without a $100 million opening weekend.

There's something freeing about going into the summer not looking forward to anything in particular. I wasn't a fan of Wall-E or Miami Vice so I'll probably walk into Up and Public Enemies (the two I would normally have high expectations for) with a clearer head.

And maybe McG (a director I still can't figure out) can surprise me with T-4 the way Len Wiseman did with Die Hard 4. I was pretty confident that one would suck. So I'm willing to give even the obnoxious guys the benefit of the doubt.

Also, compared to the last two summers, the franchise monster seems tame by comparison. That means more surprises. And to me that's what summer movies are all about.

No data to chart yet? Gahh. Seeing the collected information was why I filled it out.

I have to say, I would usually be opposed to a movie directed by someone who wants to call themselves 'Benny Boom' but Next Day Air looks like fun.

PS: Lex, you suck.

I agree. There really isn't much I'm jived about seeing, aside from Up, Bruno and Public Enemies.

I will go see Angels and Demons and Star Trek and Terminator Salvation. All three of which are high on my "don't ge my hopes up" department. Sure all three of their last trailers looked good, but still I'm keeping it cool.

Transformers 2 is probably the lock for highest grosser of the year. But you never know. I agree lot of unkowables out there.

I bet good money on Inglorious Basterds barely crossing $50M domestic.

This survey is too much work. Haven't heard of several of the films, and the pull-downs aren't narrowed by category. I'm sure I'll end up seeing a ton of 'em, but right now only Bruno has me intrigued.

Why would ANYONE OVER THE AGE OF, OH, NINE, be excited about seeing UP?

I swear to God, everyone gets more infantile as the years pass. If this was 1983, when I was 10 years old, I would be (and WAS) FUCKING AMPED for Clint, Scarface, all the Stephen King movies, Flashdance, All the Right Moves, Superman III, JEDI, WarGames, Mausoleum, Metalstorm, and Jaws 3-D.

I wouldn't, IN A MILLION FUCKING YEARS, have wanted to see UP! or any comparable cartoon. And if anyone in our fifth-grade posse had suggested seeing A CARTOON MOVIE, that little fucker would've caught a Billy Batts level beatdown, because KIDS SHOULD OUTGROW ANIMATED MOVIES already by that age.

The fact that a bunch of 35 year old men, 25 years on, are POSTING ON A BLOG that in a summer filled with tits, violence, hot chicks, murder, fast cars, metal and awesomeness, you're more excited about a PIXAR MOVIE than a MOVIE WITH GUNFIRE AND TITS?

Some people need to GROW THE FUCK UP.

NOT ONE OF YOU, even those who are PAID TO DO IT, should waste your time or your life seeing UP?

Christ, what would your FATHER think of you as an adult paying good hard-earned money to sit in a theater full of small children watching animated robots farting while some shitty Disney pop music plays?

John Dillinger needs to come back from the fucking grave and pummel anyone who goes to see that shit.

"I swear to God, everyone gets more infantile as the years pass."
"Some people need to GROW THE FUCK UP."

IRONY.

TO Lex: Incredibles kicks Watchmen's blue ass anyday of the week and thrice on a Sunday.

To Scott re F&F being the highest grosser: I think that honor will go MvA, which is just ringing up the weekday numbers and currently has pulled ahead during the week. F&F will top out at $175M max, while MvA can still push to $200M especially as 3D gives it a little extra life.

F&F gets some of its action audience siphoned off by Crank 2 this week and Mutant Chronicles next week. By the time Wolverine rolls around its dead. MvA has no competition until maybe? Battle for Terra, which has no buzz as yet, but will snatch some 3D screens.

Lex, I know you're mostly being facetious, and the idea of a Billy Bats beatdown in 3rd Grade is hysterical, but your prejudice against animation really is mystifying, especially when there are so many live-action crap movies for kids, and when there are animated films like TRIPLETS OF BELLVILLE or WALTZ WITH BASHIR clearly aimed at an adult audience, not to mention a masterpiece like THE INCREDIBLES.

Totally unrelated comment, but seeing that I don't live in the good old US of A, one question: Don't Republicans know what Teabagging means?

Lex, I feel like I shouldn't even respond to your umpteenth animation-is-4-kids bait, but GROW THE FUCK UP is exactly what I thought while watching WANTED last summer -- which I had been looking forward to, as a fan of over-the-top sexy-action ridiculousness. Love Statham movies, love Robert Rodriguez movies, can get behind the better Jerry Bruckheimer productions. But that movie's Fight-Club-for-assholes-who-don't-understand-Fight-Club aesthetic perfectly illustrated the dead end you can hit while chasing awesomeness down a dark alley.

People like slash love the Pixar movies because they're funny and engaging and amazing to look at. CHARMING, as you'd say if they had tits. When you dismiss them, you sound like the dude who doesn't want to hang out with his friends unless there's gonna be hot girls there. That is to say: I understand your instincts, but they're douchebaggy. As bulldog points out, The Incredibles is a more kinetic, exciting, intelligent, and just plain professionally made movie than so, so many superhero movies you've probably seen. Jessica Alba's ass didn't make Fantastic Four any more grown-up.

bulldog, I think Scott meant that F&F will have the biggest opening weekend of the year until late June (also, I'm pretty sure Mutant Chronicles isn't get a wide release). I tend to think something will gross in the 70-80 range before then -- maybe Night at the Museum 2, actually. But it seems surprisingly possible.

I'm guessing Wolverine, Trek, Angels, and Terminator will all be in the 50-60 range, opening wise, which will make for an extremely consistent but not terribly "exciting" May from a numbers point of view. Then again, if a meathead car sequel (with admittedly rad trailers) can do 72, maybe any of those others have a shot at the 70's. But yeah, $100 mil weekends seem out of reach until Transformers/Potter. And the traditional late July/early August blockbuster and/or surprise-hit-to-be seems not to exist. There's actually a weekend in July (I think it's the post-Potter weekend, but before Funny People) where NOTHING all that big or interesting seems to be coming out.

But I'm not down on the prospects for quality. We've got movies from Mann, Pixar, Apatow, Tarantino, and Raimi, plus a few indies that look promising (Moon, 500 Days of Summer). Plus Star Trek looks like a lot of fun.

You're right Jesse on my comment re:Scott.

I would think that if Wolverine throws under 75M it will be considered disappointing based on the bofo openings of the other Xmen. This sequel isn't the Scorpion King of the Xmen franchise, its the most popular character. I think it will perform almost exactly like xmen 2&3, big opening, and rapid drops, especially with Star Trek waiting in the wings, which for some reason I believe will have a smaller opening than Wolverine but better legs. The comic book and fantasy fans have had plenty to chew on recently, its been while since a pure space epic has hit the screen.

GI Joe was made for intelligent adults with taste, such as LexG.

My father who was ex-military and shot and ate almost every north american mammal with more than two legs happened to be a huge Little Mermaid fan.

Scott, but having Wolverine, Star Trek, Night at the Museum 2, Angels and Demons, and Terminator all rolling in May is huge. You could say that each one has a change to be an $80M opener (at least); but there's no way all will. If F&F could open to $70M, then $10M for some of those movies is not far off.

I feel as though Wolverine has the best shot, mainly cause its first. And Museum 2 and Star Treck probably won't but will have legs to do well. I'm not saying all have a change to be $300M movies, just $80M openers. I'm shocked that people think Wolverine will open below $60M when all the X-men movies did considerably better with each outing and even Van Helsing opened to $50+ 5 years ago.

And yes, some thought Speed Racer (cough, cough) would do very well last year, but didn't and was squeezed out. Which of these "big/tent-pole" movies has the best chance to be last year's speed racer?

Of course i meant $10M MORE in addition to the $70 that FF pulled off.

"...when I was 10 years old, I would be (and WAS) FUCKING AMPED for Clint, Scarface, all the Stephen King movies, Flashdance, All the Right Moves, Superman III, JEDI, WarGames, Mausoleum, Metalstorm, and Jaws 3-D."

Hey, during the summer or 83 these were the exact same films I was psyched for too. I too couldn't stand "kiddie" movies when I was that age. All I wanted was Clint, Al, Jennifer Beals etc.

But the problem for many of us is the "adult" films now are juvenile and the "juvenile" films have become clever, wry and sophisticated.

The cartoons of that era were crap. Now though, Ratatouille is far more sophisticated a comedy than most anything "adult" with Seth Rogen or Baron Cohen in it and as another poster said, The Incredibles is better than the Watchmen, which I actually happen to like.

Does anyone really think Basterds will be anything more than an adolescent wet dream with very little to interest adults. Once "adult" became just lame gross-out gags and blood letting, R-rated movies suprisingly became less adult. The R-rated films you mention from 83 (Scarface, Sudden Impact, Dead Zone etc.) put story before rating and I think that is partially why we looked forward to them.

Of this summer, only really Mann's film fits that bill. And I can't wait for it. Last summer, Nolan's Dark Knight felt more like an old school R film than anything else I had seen because he nailed the tone.

Does anyone know what Terminator will be rated? It looks gritty and like it might be R, but I bet they'd try to shoot for PG-13. That could impact how it does. I know when we're talking openings we mean 3-day, but Terminator opens on the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend. If it's PG-13, it could do $100M+ Thur-Mon.

that survey is way too fiddly for my liking so i just put whatever movies in whatever categories willy-nilly in hopes that others would do the same and royally fuck it up

'My father who was ex-military and shot and ate almost every north american mammal with more than two legs happened to be a huge Little Mermaid fan.'

LOL, hcat, bless

i'm looking forward to 'up', but i do still wish pixar would branch out and put their considerable skills toward a gritty, harrowing, exciting adult 'sky's the limit' perhaps sci-fi adventure thriller, something dramatic and action packed, dark and witty

(i guess there's 'avatar' in the meantime)

I generally like Pixar movies, but don't see much appealing about UP. Except that it's 3-D, and I'm a sucker for that. Meet the Robinsons wasn't a great movie, for example, but damn it had the best 3-d ever. Same with Monsters versus Aliens.

Also: Transformers basically is a cartoon too. Just a much more expensive one. Probably more of it is technically animation than, say, Mary Poppins or Bedknobs & Broomsticks.

"i'm looking forward to 'up', but i do still wish pixar would branch out and put their considerable skills toward a gritty, harrowing, exciting adult 'sky's the limit' perhaps sci-fi adventure thriller, something dramatic and action packed, dark and witty".

--

Well, they're doing JOHN CARTER OF MARS. Directed by Stanton, written by Stanton and Michael Chabon, live-action. It probably won't be all of the things you mentioned above (probably not dark, I'd imagine), but it could be most of them.

i'd totally spaced on 'john carter on mars', telemachos, isn't stanton doing it part live action/part animated? sounds like a step in the right direction. i'd still like a to see a visually-stunning hard-out pixar-style animated r-rated thriller just for adults, i think that could have real potential

You're right, leahnz, I forgot they'd switched to a half-n-half style. Which frankly sounds a bit odd; I guess I need to see some stills or a teaser or something. Or maybe the "animation" part of it will be like AVATAR, basically photo-realistic. In any case, it's an interesting project.

I'd love to see Pixar really branch out beyond their family-oriented fare too -- maybe tackle some great science-fiction classics.... but I think they're not particularly interested in that direction (right now anyway).

While I hate to even come close to agreeing with LexG's asinine posing, so please please please don't think I'm going there...but I do think that animation works best as family/mainstream fare. I have no interest in animated thrillers or action movies. I think there's something about the medium, and that action works best with real people because then you feel that they may be killed? This is why I personally prefer old school action or martial arts more than effects-based action movies. I like real people doing real things. I don't want to see an animated Conan fighting a dragon. I watched some of Beowulf and just found it silly looking (although I didn't see it in IMAX).

It's why at the end of Phantom Menace, when they finally start busting out the lightsabers and going at each other, it was such a breath of fresh air to see actual people doing some action and not a bunch of cartoon robots. Just not exciting to me at all.

telemachos, why is that, do you think? with pixar being such a pioneer and setting the bar for excellence in cgi animation/storytelling for the 'family', i would think now is the perfect time to be bold, think outside the box, expand horizons and set off into uncharted adult territory (but that's just me; maybe i should be in charge of pixar, or at least the adult arm: 'sick puppy productions')

I think Transformer 2 and Harry Potter VI are locked in at one and two. The rest, who knows? I would have bet a lot of money TDK would not have made much more than 300 million. As for the movies I'm most looking forward too: Public Enemies, Up, Terminator 4, Inglorious Basterds, and Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea. Somebody will probably correct me if I'm wrong but I think Miyazaki's newest is gonna be released in August. We should all be grateful that a new Miyazaki movie is coming. In my humble opinion, his movies blow Pixar out of the water. I know people will probably be angry with that comment, but I believe he is one of the finest filmakers alive, regardless of the medium he chooses to express himself.

leahnz, my guess is: why mess with success? If I was a Pixar or Disney shareholder, I would totally understand this view. Pixar films are essentially guaranteed successes right now -- the "family" means a ton of DVDs sold, lots of repeat viewing, mechandise, rides, etc, and the Disney/Pixar brand is one of the strongest in the world. They're strongest because people know what they are.

Now, creatively, I could see the excitement in expanding the company's horizons. But even if the Pixar honchos wanted to (and I'm not sure they do, since they seem very happy re-living and re-visiting their childhoods through their stories), it'd be at least a half-decade or so away, since their pipeline is backed up at the moment.

I'm not necessarily interested in animated darker features for the sake of animation -- more that in some cases you could tell a story through animation that still might be cost-prohibitive. Pixar's real strength, though, is their commitment to storytelling; they'll put everything on hold until the story is RIGHT. That approach would be successful even if they were doing live-action.

jasonbruen, Terminator is rated PG-13. I guess McG lost his bid for an r-rated, topless Moon Bloodgood cut of the flick, when Watchmen underperformed.

"Meet the Robinsons wasn't a great movie, for example, but damn it had the best 3-d ever."

Whoops. I'm a big fan of "Meet the Robinsons" and I think it's one of the most underrated animated films of the last ten years or so; which is a feeling that shocks the hell out of me since I went into it thinking, "here comes hell on a silver screen".

i picked Ghosts of Girlfriends' Past for everything.

I'm not on board with Pixar expanding into more 'adult' fare. As has been suggested, Pixar's storytelling is smarter and more sophisticated than a lot of movies targeted at adults. And having kids, I'm grateful that there's such high quality entertainment I can watch with my kids, that they can enjoy on a different level. Heck, some of the wide-eyed wonder elements appeal to the child in me.

I'd like anyone advocating for Pixar to 'expand their horizons' to be more specific on what they'd like to see content-wise that would make a film more 'adult'. Are we talking about something like 'Beowolf' (which I haven't seen)?

i'm sure you're entirely correct, telemachos, i'm just so tired of the 'play it safe' mentality. the huge advantage of photo-realistic cgi animation is that ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING can be portrayed on screen, which opens up a mind-boggling world of possibilities for exciting grown-up fare simply not feasible in live-action filmmaking, even with the best of the best visual effects. 'avatar' will provide the first real taste.

'In my humble opinion, his [miyazaki's] movies blow Pixar out of the water. I know people will probably be angry with that comment...'

monco, that doesn't make me angry in the slightest. as a fan of both miyazaki and pixar, i don't necessarily agree with you because i view the miyazaki and pixar styles of animation as completely different beasts, but 'spirited away' is legend and i'll watch chihiro's adventure till my dying day, one of the most beautiful films ever made

'i picked Ghosts of Girlfriends' Past for everything.'

hurrah, anghus, another malcontent out to destroy the status quo! (or at least, that brain-straining survey)

hell no, 'beowolf' blew chunks.

mystery, why couldn't pixar do BOTH family and r-rated adult stories with violence and sex? i don't get it.

as the person who is advocating it (i think i'm a lonely camper on this one so far, sadly), like i said above, pixar could do an absolutely mind-bending, outrageous, badass flick for adults that could never be achieved live-action, what is so bad about that? i really don't see the problem here

But at this stage, there isn't a "live action" movie that could never be achieved. Sure they may have to shoot on mostly greenscreens like Star Wars, but they can be done. I think the substitution of cartoony looking people is what would hurt movies like that.

In terms of effects, I think the new Star Wars movies sucessfully bridged the gap of being mostly animation but still being a live action movie.

Animation is great at providing a certain feeling that you can't get in live action...but I'd still rather watch a live action Hellboy than an animated one. I've seen a number of action/sci-fi anime and they don't do it for me either. But I do like the Miyazaki films I've seen.

The choice is not simply "beowulf" or "toy story". There are unique adult stories that can be told with cg technology these days. I don't know much about Avatar, but that might be an example of tackling something complex and intellectual. I don't think that Pixar sticks with the family crowd because that's the only stories they WANT to tell. It' a bigger issue of branding. Corporations get very hung up on their brand, and making sure audiences get what they expect from that brand. You know what you're going to get at McDonalds, you generally know what you're going to get from Pixar. By making lawrence of arabia or clockwork orange in 3D CG they would be risking alienating the audience that goes to see their bread and butter. If they do branch out, I doubt it will be under the Pixar banner, although it may involve the same talent behind the scenes. Personally I've never been a huge fan of their movies, although I know why people like them. They are definitely well made and usually good stories well told.

It sounds like John Carter may be under Pixar though. It'd be pretty ballsy of them to do that for the very reasons you mention...they're messing with the brand.

Even if T4 is PG-13, you know there'll be an "Unrated" DVD with the nude scene back in.

Since jesse mentioned The Mutant Chronicles, I find this really weird. It's already out on DVD in Thailand. Does anyone know what happened?

I'm sort of sick of action movies being rated PG-13. I can see why they do it, but really. The last Die Hard not being R really sucked. I mean, McClane can't even complete is signature 'Yippee Ki Yay Mother******'.

RE: Pixar - maybe it can launch a new production arm, like leahnz and martin said, to deal with more grown-up stuff. I'd like to see that.

You have to love the for box office predictions - man, this year's box office so far has me completely vexed about how to predict these things. I mean, wow, if Paul Blart and Taken can do almost $150 million, then who knows how high the sky is for some of these films?

That said, I hate to take Dave's terminology, but this summer feels very "niche" to me - loads of kiddie films, chick flick romances, and geekish action films - hard to see many breaking out, but who knows? Last summer, Dark Knight and Iron Man both grossed about double what I expected them to.

I can see some of the following films with true breakout potential: Star Trek, G-Force, Land of the Lost (dino's plus Will Ferrell), and Up. It's a really tough call, just some strange stuff in the schedule:

I mean, wow, Disney has been spending the money promoting The Proposal early and often - it's a Sandra Bullock/Ryan Reynolds comedy and they're giving it a prime mid-June release date???? The best they can hope for is maybe Miss Congeniality ($110 mill) grosses and that just seems tough.

And I don't know what Universal is expecting from Public Enemies - sure, it stars Depp and Bale, hot off TDK, but it's a period crime drama coming out July 4th weekend? Has any studio done this kind of placement before? There was some talk, last week, about what grosses they are expecting - I don't care how hot Depp and Bale are - if they think they're getting $200 million, they're kidding themselves. This is Michael Mann - all it would have to do to become the highest grossing Mann is $110 million - I'm guessing Universal is aiming for numbers along the lines of The Departed or American Gangster (about $130 million) - problem is that both of those films came in the fall, where is a little more breathing room. Tough film to predict, a lot will depend on reviews.

I think a lot of people are underestimating Wolverine - it will open to almost or just over $100 million and then drop like a stone, but there is no reason this can't be the highest grossing X Men movie. Remember, all of the previous ones (even the first one) had terrible legs. I don't buy the bad buzz about all the piracy - remember the last big movie to get this much piracy buzz? American Gangster and in the week leading up to its release, screeners everywhere. What happened as a result? Only the biggest opening ever for either of its stars.

Here are my predictions for highest grossers of the summer, subject to change of course:

1. Transformers 2 - $365 million
2. Harry Potter 6 - $310 mill
3. Night at the Museum 2 - $ 285 mil
4. Up - $260 m
5. Wolverine - $245 m
6. Ice Age 3 - $215 m
7. Angels & Demons - $185 m
8. Terminator Salvation - $170 m
9. G Force - $165 m
10. Land of the Lost - $160 m
11. Star Trek $160 m
12. Public Enemies $140 m
13. GI Joe $135 m
14. Funny People $130 m
15. Taking of Pelham 123 $120 m

Meet The Robinsons was my favorite film of 2006 and one of my favorite cartoons ever... period. It's one of those movies, like Babe, The Mask Of Zorro, and Shanghai Knights, that I probably love more than anyone else on the planet. I distinctly remember going to the press screening the Wed before opening weekend at the El Capitan, not knowing what to expect. As I walked out, my eyes more than a little damp, but grinning ear to ear, I knew I had just completely wasted an afternoon. Because I had gone by myself and my wife surely had to see this thing as soon as possible anyway. It is easily one of the most surprising movie going experiences of my life.

hcat, you will hopefully adore O'Horten as much as I did. It's a really great movie that I only came about to seeing when the project for the cinema I was sitting in for at the Melbourne Film Fest blew up and they allowed us to get refunds or go next door to the screening of "a Scandinavian dramady about trains" as the festival spokesperson put it.

I'm looking forward to Up, Inglorious Basterds, Julie and Julia, Transformers 2, Terminator 4, Bruno, Wolverine, Public Enemies and Harry Potter 6 most of all, but I'm also hoping Katherine Heigl turns on the charm offensive with The Ugly Truth. That woman has somethin', I swear.

Glad to hear that O'Horten is good, I have the trailer on my ipod and watch it all the time. Its looks like a quiet 'Band's Visit' type of comedy which I always look forward to.

Geoff, I think Universal is hopeing for Road to Perdition(which I think was also July 4th), Seabiscuit type numbers for PE. Will have a softer opening between 25 and 30 but have some decent legs since older filmgoers don't make it out on opening weekend. Since it seems like the only action movie that is more than bright colors and busted eardrums, it could suit the Bourne/ Dark Knight audience and have an outside chance at 200 million.

And I am suprised to find myself to be a fan of Heigl but Ugly Truth looks terrible, and I enjoyed 27 Dresses.

You know, looking at the list again, if 2007 was the summer-of-the-threequel, then 2009 could be the summer-of-even-people-who-liked-the-original-didn't-ask-for-this-one.

It's almost as if Hollywood wants us to decide if a dry well is better than a poisoned one.

What's wrong, fellas? No Wild Hogs 2?

Just read a review in Variety for an OSS 117 sequal. Anyone know about possible American distribution for this one?

Is this poll ever going to have enough data to chart?

I would hope that Music Box will pick up this OSS as well. Damn, I'll be out of town when it's screening at CoLCoA. Curse you, France!

Music Box only made about 300 thousand on the first one, but if their video sales were strong I can see them sticking with it. Can't imagine there will be anything approaching a bidding war on this title in this economic climate.

Speaking of video has anyone else noticed that IFC hasn't put out a new DVD for like four months? They are still releasing films theatrically so they aren't broke but I am still waiting for the video release of films from last May. I need my 'My Winnepeg' fix Damnit.

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