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i'm just curious -

how does anyone have a metric on what the primary demographic for pirated materials consists of?

i mean seriously, where is the actual data and numbers you've got that shows that urban blacks and hispanics, as they are called, are the primary consumers of bootlegged films? Or did you just pull that as a cultural assumption out of your ass?

In NY I've seen just about everyone buying bootlegs. And even better, the guy who sells stolen netflix dvds outside whole foods in union square.

The reviews don't matter. What matters is that now the very media we have access to means that a month before a $100 million gamble from a movie studio comes out, it can be utterly compromised. All the financial risk and marketing acumen can and will be shaken up by the lax practices in post. It's not hysteria, but it's a bad day for everyone involved creatively.

Just ask those in the music industry whose bottom line is vanishing, and who had major artists leak early. The reckoning that came to the music industry is coming for movies next. ESPECIALLY given that theatrical was traded as a marketing platform for DVD. The studios don't even realize how much movies are traded online (by non urban whites, natch).

"mean seriously, where is the actual data and numbers you've got that shows that urban blacks and hispanics, as they are called, are the primary consumers of bootlegged films? Or did you just pull that as a cultural assumption out of your ass?"

I assume it's because here in L.A. you never see bootlegs for sale in Westwood or Santa Monica, but they're available on every street corner in Boyle Heights and Crenshaw.

Who cares?

Movie-public wise - no one. Some Fox / Marvel suits are ticked off because they look bad, but that's it. How many people are now NOT going to see this on opening weekend because of this.

Personally speaking, I get a big X-Men 3 vibe off that trailer, i.e. it looks pretty loud and stupid. I'm not familiar with the comic books, and questions like "How does Gambit look?" really means nothing to me. So I'll wait and see.

The May opening I'm most looking forward to? UP!!!

yeah and how many drug dealers do you see on the corners of wall street or hollywood and vine?

Just putting in my own 2 cents, for what it's worth. I am becoming a bit of a snob in the fact that I like to watch my movies on either a movie screen or on 1 of the 2 big screen TVs I own. I was suprised to find "The Wrestler" on my favorite file sharing program a few weeks back, it worked perfectly on my computer screen, but I would never sit and watch a 2 hour movie on my computer chair in my home office. I tried to burn the file to a DVD to watch on my TV and it was glitchy so I'll just wait for DVD or cable. Once I can download movies, transfer them to DVD and get acceptable quality I will do so, (just being honest) but I don't think we are quite there.

"yeah and how many drug dealers do you see on the corners of wall street or hollywood and vine?"

Are you saying that westsiders will drive all the way to MacArthur Park just to buy a bootleg DVD, just like they do for coke or weed? I think that's nuts.

Easy enough to get an idea of the kind of bite this could take out of the audience since most torrent sites show you just how many seeders and leechers are on at any time. On one site I just looked at there were 26,000 people downloading Wolverine.
Times sure are changing; A few years ago, I was pretty flattered when I discovered that a film I had made was available online - it had finally found its biggest audience with the pirates. But now it's so much more widespread and if it happens to me again I'll be pretty damn annoyed. Though it really shouldn't be possible because the security measures taken during every stage of post production are insane, even on relatively modest productions like mine. God knows what measures they were taking on Wolverine. Clearly not enough.

I've lived in Los Angeles for 7 1/2 years now and never seen a single bootleg DVD for sale anywhere. In New York, they're all over Times Square and Union Square.

Or, you could just go online and not bother with the physical DVDs at all.

Oh, so my point was: obviously New Yorkers are much bigger criminals than Angelenos.

no i'm saying that everyone wants illicit goods. how they get them is different. the teenagers in long beach download the full dvd rip .iso from the comfort of their bedrooms and their fast comcast cable modem lines their parents pay for.

75k people watching an unfinished movie can do a lot of damage to a 35 million dollar marketing campaign a month out from release.

and the average viewer doesn't give a shit about picture quality. even some people with good taste are wholly ignorant of how to view a movie properly. it doesn't help that DVD has become the market leader in the business, with studios gleefully and wilfully sticking their movies on fucking telephones. that short term money you're making is devestating the cultural power you used to have.

I'm watching over 50,000 people downloading it on just one site right now. If the downloaders respond positively to it though (like Taken) this could be a great thing for Fox.

I do think you're underestimating the amount of people that will try to watch this version though David. Most people in my college dorm were watching pirated films on our computers in 2000. I can only imagine how much worse it has gotten (especially among 12-17 year olds).

"I've lived in Los Angeles for 7 1/2 years now and never seen a single bootleg DVD for sale anywhere."

Then you need to let go of your provincial ways and get your ass east of Western, Jeff.

again this is something i don't see discussed at all...

if dvd is where the real money is to be made in movies these days...

then the movie industry has already opened the can of worms the music industry did.

because it's when a movie hits dvd and a flawless rip appears online that a movie really gets hurt (and its various incarnations end up on multitudes of streaming sites or rapidshare etc etc). not theatrical.

the thing about Taken is that before it had marketing buzz it was a non entity, and aimed at a far less tech savvy demo (people who remember life before cellphones). that's not the case with wolverine. and the real problem here is that with a month to propogate amongst the nerds, that first weekend buzz and expectation diminishes. that first weds or thurs midnight, a ton of people will have already formed an opinion and expressed it to their buddies for the past four weeks.

I and most of my friends live east of Western, Wrecktum.

However, I think that advance buzz on Wolverine - if it nullifies the marketing - can only be a good thing. If people like it, it'll do well. If it sucks, then people will be properly warned.

"I and most of my friends live east of Western, Wrecktum."

Then you must have seen some bootleg DVDs!

Check TWITTER for Wolverine. Fox should just slap suits on the morons who post under their real names that they've watched it.

"markwilkinson Just watched X-Men Origins: Wolverine online. Awesome movie!!!"

I also see that their PR peeps are trolling positive 'buzz' comments everywhere as well. The pros and cons for the film will be balance out. The diehard downloaders for the most part don't pay to see the film opening weekend anyway. Many of those big number leechers are from Europe/Asia.

Big claim but I honestly don't think this will affect the films domestic theatrical much at all. Internationally will be another story.

Pardon my law-abiding naivete, but isn't it like some HUGE-TIME crime to watch or download any of that shit?

Long as I've been online, I've always just kind of assumed someone, somewhere might be keeping tabs on that kind of shit... so how do torrent sites not get shut down like INSTANTLY and all downloaders traced immediately?

If YOUTUBE apparently wants to start keeping IP track of who's watching old-ass TV clips and commercials because of some copyright claims, why aren't the average people more paranoid about blatantly watching or downloading a movie off a shady site?

We just had Watchmen and MvA opened softer than expected. If the trend continues to Wolverine they have a great excuse - legitimate or not - for Glickman to start a hard push over all kinds of file-sharing formats.

The difference with Wolverine and any previous is this is the biggest, most complete version to make it on-line while broadband has exponentially jumped since Hulk and Soul Plane.

We're looking at a massive broadband push within the next 2-3 years. Media conglom's are going to want assurances beforehand.

I've seen illegal bootlegs all the way in Venice. Maybe some of guys don't get served because you look like uptight narcs??

I think the major issue in combating illegal downloads is not the econ matter of something for nothing but the play to self worth. There's a great insider feel of having seen a flick in advance of the great unwashed. "Be the first" was part of the tactics used in the marketing paradigm shift following WWII in convincing people to buy something they don't need. As marketing has shifted from selling a product to selling an image, people can feel a lack of completeness in not having a product, item, done a certain experience or in the case of ent, seen a movie or heard a album.

I know this is going to seem even more completely unrelated but as shame has been all but eliminated from "our" modern, progressive culture, the byproduct of behavioral maladies will include hunting the interwebs for a grainy, non-color corrected copy of the latest sci fi flick. Not that I approve but I understand the guys who go to the 10 AM Friday screening of a summer blockbuster with a camcorder under their coat to record the action from the front row then spread a blanket out in the back of a parking lot of a 99 Cent store Saturday afternoon to sell copies at $5 a pop but the posthouse pa who rips a copy of a rough cut before sticking it in a FedEx envelope, not to show his boys after work but just straight up upload to the web for nothing, save a vague notion of accomplishment that can't be really be shared, seems to be totally lacking for explanation. No bragging rights, no econ gain.

But I guess I did my share of stupid things when I was 23, too.

In L.A., I have now seen people selling bootleg DVDs in front of Mann's Chinese here in Hollywood, but - of course - the most I've seen have been in stalls in the alleys around Chinatown and Olvera Street.

And the thing is, I have to agree with an above poster about bootlegging of the 'net going back a few years. I've worked a lot of random IT-related jobs and everywhere I've gone, there's always that one guy at the office whose sole claim to fame is he can "get you movies" as he's downloading them in the tech services dept. and will burn you anything you want.

According to a couple of friends back in Houston, this is not a practice that has slowed.

I can only imagine what it's like on college campuses. For both grad and undergrad, I didn't have a fucking car and couldn't get across town for every movie I wanted to see. There's no way I would've thought twice about "piracy" and "poor Hollywood" if it had meant getting to see "The Matrix" or something.

I think you're grossly underestimating the numbers. I just checked a couple of popular torrent sites and at one of them there is a single copy of Wolverine that has nearly 15,000 seeders and *well* over 100,000 leechers.

Clearly this movie is getting some wide distribution right now.

I'm like Lex. I don't dare download stuff because I don't want to be arrested. However, hearing about these rampant downloads, I must rethink my position (not that I'll ever consider doing it). Clearly, hardly any people gets caught. My cousin's boyfriend offered to give me the URL for to a couple of bittorrent sites and, while I was tempted, I politely thanked him and said that my internet connection is too slow.

If I had even a remote interest in going to see Wolverine, or any movie, in theaters, I wouldn't d/l it. It is not in any way an acceptable substitute. For the few movies I have watched online, I invariably become bored or distracted-- even with movies I might have otherwise enjoyed. So when we're talking about an action movie, with incomplete f/x, it makes little sense (although I understand the thrill of getting something unreleased early/free).

so when are we going to see the review, dave?

or is it just too 'niche'?

I do kinda wonder why more people aren't afraid of getting caught. Like what happened to all those people who got letters or essentially invoices from the RIAA for the illegal songs they downloaded? Did NOBODY go to jail on that? I thought they made people sign something basically acknowledging guilt, they'll cut the amount in settlement but if it happens again, it'll really be my ass kind of thing, right?

I've talked to some piraters and they feel like their benifiting the industry because of the word of mouth they give.

I've been reading this book called "The Shadow Factory" by James Bamford who was this expert on the NSA. It talks heavily about the capabilities American intelligence agencies have in culling data from even individual users of teh internets. There are some really scary piracy/complicity issues going on but it's hard not to wonder when's the govt going to come in and lay down the pimp hand. Like to answer anybody's questions, they know. They know exactly what you've sent, where you've been, who you've been talking to. I just wonder is it like passing a hidden motorcycle cop going 50 in a 35 w/out so much as a warning because they know if they wait Mr Red Sports Car will be by at 62? Is it more a case of following the runner passing out the dime bags high schoolers that goes overlooked because they wanna find out who the supplier is? I just wonder why judgment day hasn't happened yet.

Bootlegs are readily available at any swap meet/flea market, anywhere. If you're not seeing bootlegs in your town it's because they don't have swap meets in your town, or you don't go to them. The most popular fare I've seen selling are kids movies, action movies, and "urban" movies.

For the guy who says he's never seen a bootleg on sale in LA try any grocery store on the other side the of Culver City. They had American Gangster before it came out. Personally I think the really smart people aren't interested in this because it seems like a honey pot. This is a great way to get busted snagging a torrent. I wouldn't be surprised if this is some kind of trojan horse of a way to bust these sites. What bothers me most is that the movie doesn't really look that good from the trailers. The last X-men movie left such a negative taste in my mouth I have no desire to see this movie at all.

Which 'other side' of Culver City? (I assume south).

I've never been to Roscoe's Chicken & Waffles, either, which is my loss.

I never said I got out much (although I have certainly broken more laws than Lex, which amuses me).

"although I have certainly broken more laws than Lex, which amuses me."

Not disputing that (though wonder why it's so amusing, since I've never claimed to be any sort of bad-ass whatsoever), but that might be the weakest boast for street cred since IO's dubious claims about living the thug life.

Anybody who talks about his boner with any regularity is, by implication, establishing himself as either some kind of supreme bad ass.

while boots are available at random locations all over l.a. and the valley...the go-to spot is santee alley downtown....you can go down saturday morning and pick up friday's releases....
also: designer knock-offs, $100 tuxedos, bargain hoodies and really good mexican food......

i spent two years (back in the 70's) working as a bouncer/bartender for hollywood clubs (paradise ballroom, 7 seas) owned by eddie nash...i broke as many knee-caps as laws...still not sure what 'street cred' is......

I was a 5th grade teacher for a few years in a heavily Hispanic school (90%+ of the population). This was about three years ago, and those kids had EVERY movie out. It was so rampant that I've started to believe there will never again be a huge Hispanic theatrical hit.

What I find strange about this debate is the assumption that someone who has watched the pirate version won't eventually contribute to the revenue stream.
Fans are famous for "multi-format" purchasing - comic fans in particular make a virtue of having the same content in all its forms.
This leaked film therefore is just another artifact in potential collectable items.
What is more interesting about this leak, is it shows the current weakness in distributor's "old school" staged release strategy.
Staged release is basically: film goes into different international territories at different times and then goes into other formats once the cinema release has had its day. A long, long time after the initial release.
This staged release strategy is the primary force behind piracy. If a kid in India can only see the pirated movie now and has to wait three months until an official cinema release and another year for the DVD, then Yes the pirate copy will eat into the eventual revenue. Nobody wants to wait that long anymore.
What makes more sense is global one day release... let me buy the DVD in the cinema lobby as I exit from seeing the movie anywhere in the world. Then release the online, as a legitimate download of the movie two weeks later.
Prohibition and having the FBI chase down individual offenders is a hopeless strategy and a waste of federal time, money and resources.

Sorry, Clive. The FBI has been called in and the workprint taken down.

What Martin said is correct: This could be the excuse for the US government to muzzle the 'Net at the behest of the MPAA (and even the RIAA).

"the workprint taken down". haha, what? Was there another part of that sentence that got excised, like "taken down from one or 2 websites, only to remain on thousands more and proliferating on every kind of p2p application that exists."? Because that's the only way that sentence would make sense.

Yeah, anyone who thinks it's even remotely possible to take the workprink off the internet at this stage really doesn't understand how this works.

Rising Sun card at the front without them ever supposedly having a full cut and end credit roll up at the back (so I've read -- is that confirmed??) points to how easy this is. Hilarious that work print is the name when lack of such gives rise to the problem in the first place. The ability to make changes to everything deeper and deeper toward release date while demanding absolute accuracy and shorter turn around is the bane and exuberance of the existence of the situation. If you want security, you have to give up the exuberance and bring back sanity to the process.

The fact that it got out is insane. And if anyone thinks this won't effect box office, then you haven't seen it yet. Because HOOOOOO WEEEEEE it is not the first impression Fox or Marvel wanted to make.

I walked into an editing bay where it had been downloaded and sat down to watch it. Man. Wow. Just not good at all. A friend of mine said "i heard they were doing reshoots". I hope they're doing a lot. Unless they're reshooting every scene with Will.I.Am and hiring a new cinematographer, they're in trouble. It's difficult to crucify a work print, but the tone of the film thematically speaking is akin to X3.

First impressions are everything. This might not have hurt the opening weekend, but it's going to compound the bad word of mouth and help kill it off quickly.

Anghus, the first rule of lying is to make it sound believable: You walked into an editing bay where it had been downloaded and sat down to watch it? Which part of that is remotely true?

all of it holly. a friend of mine had downloaded it and put it on the big lcd screen in one of the editing bays so i plopped down on the couch and watched it with him.

im not sure why you find that so implausible.

Guess it's in a safe location in the valley at a reality tv joint.

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