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Only BOG thinks Star Trek is falling by 50%, and then only barely? Has anybody actually paid attention to box office trends before making predictions?

Was I imagining things (I was sober for once) last night, or did I suddenly start seeing TV ads every eight minutes for some Feeling Minnesota-looking low-rent romance with Jennifer Aniston and... some dude I can't even remember? Steve Zahn?

And it drops TODAY? Where did that even COME from?

And it's getting pretty good reviews Lex (the few that I've come across have been positive anyway). Stephen Belber wrote and directed it. I really like Tape, which he wrote.

Has anybody actually paid attention to box office trends before making predictions?

FWIW, Iron Man fell just under 50% from its first to second weekend, right? Star Trek has better midweek numbers than Iron Man's first week and (as David pointed out in a different thread) has relatively weak competition in its segment. So why does this seem too small a drop to you?

Tape is great. And I caught Management last fall in Toronto: It's a low-key rom-com with a great deal of charm. Mind you, Lex, I don't think you'll find it CHARMING, but... Well, I think you'll laugh. Honest.

"So why does this seem too small a drop to you?"

I could be wrong, absolutely. But Star Trek had much more of a built-in audience than Iron Man, an audience who would have been there first weekend.

... and on these boffo weekdays, Josh Massey?

Massey, I can't think of any trends that are relevant in this particular situation. Those are realistic estimates, and some of them are even low. Trek is going to clear 250 and we'll see where it ends up.

*snort*

"Star Trek had much more of a built-in audience than Iron Man"

I know this is the standard assumption, but I wonder if this is really true. I mean, just how big is the fanbase at this point? By boxofficemojo, the current Star Trek had by far the largest opening weekend of any Star Trek in 2009 dollars. These can't all be Trekkies, can they? Maybe the built-in audience already came out and the additional audience last weekend (not to mention the higher numbers during the week) are not hardcore fans. Then comparing the Star Trek trajectory to Iron Man isn't so unreasonable, and a $240 million gross (I get by assuming similar dropoffs but from an initial weekend only 4/5 of Iron Man) doesn't seem so implausible.

Well, we'll probably know by Sunday.

The built in audience for Star Trek is probably older people though, so they may go later. I know a number of 50-60 year old people who want to see it, and will be this week/weekend.

Took in "State of Play" last night at a megaplex that held it over. "Angels and Demons" was on 5 screens and none of the evening shows sold out. Not a good omen for opening weekend.

Overbooking is a serious problem for mainstream movies, especially at megaplexes. It's better to open 2-3 prints and sell out than open 4-5 prints and not sell out.

"It's better to open 2-3 prints and sell out than open 4-5 prints and not sell out."

Not necessarily. If the theatre is interlocking prints or running D-cinema, then print cost isn't a factor.

If, however, the distributor sent the theatre 5 prints and they can't get asses in seats, then it's definitely a problem and just plain bad business.

Interlocking: Studios frown on it for financial reasons -- it may have been fashionable in the 80's but not today.

Overbooking: The megaplex where I saw "State of Play" didn't open "Management" and the only arty titles are those in wide release.

Moral: Cater only to mouth-breathing fanboys and you'll lose business in the long run.

Interlocking happens all the time. Not sure why you'd think otherwise.

And don't blame the theater because a specific arthouse flick isn't booked. Perhaps there's no print availability or the theater is in a competitive zone or the distributor is platforming the release. Truth be told, a theater will many times still make more money on a fifth print of the tentpole de jour instead of the latest arthouse film.

That said, overbooking is definitely a problem, and I blame the studios who like to get into a cock measuring match each summer to see who can release their big pics the widest. What a waste.

Looking at the numbers for Management, a fifth screen of Angels and Demons was probably a better call for the theater than a screen of Management.

@Wrecktum: Studios also frown on interlocking for legal reasons. When the "Lord of the Rings" movies came out, New Line warned theaters not to interlock or their prints would be pulled immediately. The theaters caved.

"Management" opened in New Jersey day and date with NYC, so if any megaplexes didn't get that film it was due to bad booking and/or the theater's demographics.

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