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My predictions:

1. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra - 47.0 (New)
2. Julie & Julia - 22.7 (New)
3. G-Force - 10.0 (-42.9%)
4. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 9.5 (-47.0%)
5. Funny People - 9.5 (-58.1%)
6. The Ugly Truth - 7.0 (-46.9%)
7. A Perfect Getaway - 5.5 (New)
8. Aliens in the Attic - 4.5 (-43.8%)
9. (500) Days of Summer - 4.3 (+54.8%)
10. Orphan - 4.1 (-45.5%)
11. The Hangover - 3.5 (-32.6%)
12. Ice Age 3 - 2.7 (-51.1%)

http://piaofang.blogspot.com/2009/08/weekend-box-office-predictions-aug-7-9.html

$45 mil for the weekend would be a nice amount for G.I. Joe to start at.

For the record, I saw GI Joe this afternoon and quite enjoyed it. It kinda crumbles in the last twenty-minutes (bad plotting issues), but it's far, far better than you'd expect considering its buzz. It's a real action picture through and through.

I saw "Joe" this afternoon, too, Scott.
The first half felt stultifying, nearly as unbearable as "Transformers 2." But the second half--when it switches into unadulterated camp terrain--was deliciously entertaining. The dialogue is atrocious, the profligate waste of so many good actors (especially poor J-G Levitt) is downright criminal and the f/x overload is deadening (and deafening). And yet I laughed harder than I did at virtually any movie this summer; at least during the delirious second half. The fact that the humor seemed so unintentional, accidental even, only made me cherish it all the more.
Was gifted with an unusually early--for the Cleveland market anyway-- press screening of "Basterds" yesterday afternoon, and I'm still processing it. I will say that it's possibly the first Tarantino movie that Tarantino haters might actually like.

I'm surprised to hear that...Basterds sounds like it's long and draggy (not like that can describe all of Tarantino's other movies, if you're not into that).

Maybe it's weird but I find Levitt being Cobra Commander funny...I guess he's an adult but he seems like a high-schooler.

Strange quirks in my schedule allowed me to see both Julie and Julia and GI Joe, today - I enjoyed them both for different reasons. Julie and Julia is definitely the better movie and (this is faint praise for me) definitely the best film that Nora Ephron has directed.

Early box office numbers are getting out from Steve Mason and Nikki Finke - Joe did about $22 million today, bigger than I would have thought and probably could break $55 millino. Once again, Paramount has successfully a launched a new brand property, they have a real knack for this.

J&J did over $7 million and could break $20 million - I guess this Meryl Streep hype is the real deal.

Funny People has dropped huge, disappointingly - it probably won't even crack $10 million in its second weekend and might not crack $60 million. Apatow is getting knocked down a notch.

"Basterds" is fascinating in so many ways, but I'm not sure what the fanboy brigade will make of it.
65% or better is subtitled (the dialogue is mostly in German and French), it felt oddly conventional (!) for a Tarantino film (the studied pacing, the easy-to-follow revenge/narrative arc, the fealty to "Tradition of Quality" production values, etc.), Brad Pitt has a glorified cameo and there's precious little action. I think it's going to play better in big-city arthouses than in flyover country (the place where "G.I. Joe" killed).
Yet people who've never had much use for Tarantino may love it. There's a big-deal arthouse in the Cleveland market whose primary demographic is (a) older and (b) Jewish. I think they'd enjoy this; and you probably couldn't have paid them to see "Kill Bill," "Death Proof" or virtually any other post-"Pulp" Tarantino.

This won't hurt Apatow. Most comedy filmmakers who try a serious film get slapped down at the B.O. (Woody being a sometime exception). It'll be written off as a pro bono labor of love, and he'll be back to penises and puking in no time.

I saw Apatow on Jon Stewart and as he started talking about how he masturbated to Bill Kristol...well, life is too short.

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