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August 01, 2009
Friday Estimates by Klady - Funny

So... let's start with the $8 million early estimators estimates (Nikki/Steve Mason) vs the $8.6m here, BO Guru, and Variety on Funny People. The $.6m is not insignificant, representing a potential 6%-8% shift over the weekend. The difference is on the west coast evening shows, where the film clearly had more walk-up buyers than anticipated by rival studios who closed the books at 9 last night. (ADD, 11:46a - In the 20 minutes it took me to write the roundup after posting estimates, Ms Finke had disappeared her $8m guess from last night and up'ed her wknd est from $22m to the studio's $25.6m without note. And that beat goes on...)
As for the opening itself, it is on the low end of Sandler, who in spite of the media fascination with Apatow, is really the opener on a movie like this. But it's the low end of Commercial Sandler and more than double any of the Drama Sandler openings. (Friday alone was more than the entire opening weekend of Reign O'er Me and just a few hundred thousand behind the opening weekend of Spanglish.) So the Apatow brand and the humor being presented by Universal in the marketing probably boosted the film out of the "Sandler has a disease... I don't want to see that" category a bit. But how much? And what will the word of mouth be? That's where the running time becomes a problem, as every time you hear "It was kinda long" at a restaurant table, the box office loses a customer.
And interestingly, Overseas Apatow, which is not a strong brand, may well do even worse with Sandler on board. Apatow's films have done a percentage in the 30s overseas while Sandler's dramas have been under 25%. You won't be seeing the outdoor from America in any other country (except maybe Australia).
The funny thing is, for a drama, $80m - $90m worldwide, which would be my expectation from here on in, is not bad these days. State of Play did about $85m. Body of Lies did about $115m, even with Leo's mighty overseas heft pushing it along to 65% of its overall ticket sales. I mean, this ain't Walk Hard.
Part of the problem is that Apatow, who has done remarkably well in context, has lost context for journalists who lined up at the alter to kiss his ass for the last few years. Perspective matters. Knocked Up was a big hit here, yes. But it was also the #5 non-animated comedy of 2007 world, behind Enchanted, Wild Hogs, Juno, and Mr. Bean. And of those four films, the only one whose director gets feature stories about him and not just the film is Jason Reitman.
I'm not saying that Judd Apatow has not had a great run and been very influential on the current comedy stream. But perspective, perspective, perspective. A little bit of it explains why this film's box office is not something to sigh about.
Of course, because of the commitment to Apatow that so many editors made this last few weeks, there won't be much negative spin from the mainstream... unlike Bruno, now at more than $120m worldwide at a cost of almost half what Funny People cost. What a disaster!!!!
And The Ugly Truth, another whipping boy, is looking like the #4 comedy of the summer (counting Julie & Julia before it even opens as #3 or possibly, #2), likely headed to more than $75 million domestic. And between Gerry Butler and Heigl, whose 27 Dresses did surprisingly well overseas, $150 worldwide would not be a surprise. $158 million worldwide would make it Robert Luketic's biggest hit, ahead of Legally Blonde, Monster-in-Law, and 21.
Harry Potter is chugging along. It will pass both The Hangover and Star Trek before this time next week, moving into the 3-spot for the summer, and will likely pass Up in about 2 weeks to become #2 behind Tranny2: ROTFL. The film remains about $13m ahead of the #2 film in the series, which if maintained, would make it only the second Potter film to crack $300 million domestically. Worldwide, the film is at around $650 million and will likely pass Ice Age 3 for the #2 slot in the next 9 days. There is also a very good chance that, in spite of a significant uptick from the first TrainFormers (Optimus Prime is crawling on the roof), Potter will pass Tr2 to be the #1 worldwide movie of this summer with $850m seeming almost inevitable for Potter and Tr2 struggling to get there.
Speaking of The Hangover, it passed $250 million this week. Huzzah.
Fox dropped a load with Aliens in the Attic. I don't know much of anything about the film, except it was dropped like a superhot potato, even on 3106 screens.
Searchlight worked hard to give a decent start to Adam, while Focus convinced geeks they had to see Thirst like any good vampire movie and then put it in 4 screens so they couldn't find it. The Cove, a strong, smart doc that makes an operation to expose dolphin slaughter into The Guns of Navarone opened well.
Posted by dpoland at August 1, 2009 10:23 AM
Comments
I don't think the Funny People number is particularly surprising. I am working at a summer camp with a group of people that are (for the most part) 18-22. There are about 30-35 of us. They have spent all summer talking movies. First The Hangover, then Transformers 2, and now Harry Potter. Each one dominated conversations for a week or two. Some are still talked about regularly. Nobody ever brought up Funny People. I did once, and got mostly blank stares. One person said, "Is that the new Adam Sandler movie?" That was it, and these people have all seen Knocked Up and The 40 Year-Old Virgin. Funny People just wasn't on their radar at all. Combine that with the fact that most older moviegoers don't like Sandler much and the opening weekend number is hardly surprising.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at August 1, 2009 11:54 AM
Knocked Up grossed less than Wild Hogs and Mr Bean? Oh man......
Posted by: Dr Wally
at August 1, 2009 12:22 PM
My mom would see a movie like Wild Hogs (and did). Knocked up? Not so much, due to the cursing and whatnot. Rated R vs PG, what can you do?
Does any time anything happens, DP checks Finke's site and takes notes about what she's doing?
Posted by: The Big Perm
at August 1, 2009 12:39 PM
I would like to go on record and predict an 8.6 million Friday for Funny People. I'll post my weekend predictions on Sunday night.
Posted by: Krazy Eyes
at August 1, 2009 01:27 PM
Fox's handling of "Aliens" is a real puzzle to me. Because they dumped it and didn't screen it in advance, I assumed it sucked, but it does not. It's a pretty clever movie in roughly the same vein as "Witch Mountain" or any of the '70s Disney live-action kid adventures. I guess they just figure they'll ignore theatrical and break even on DVD?
Posted by: chris
at August 1, 2009 02:33 PM
Perm - I have a half dozen or so blogs on my Yahoo! homepage, so when I open up the browser in the morning, I see the top five headlines from each site. Last night, I got e-mail from Steve Mason with the $8 million number and this morning, I saw Nikki had the same number in her headline. When I opened Len's chart, I saw $8.6m. So I do what I do... I looked around at the other places that project Friday estimates.
If I hadn't acknowledged the difference of opinions - had she not changed her story, which again, I knew only because I updated my homepage - the third or fourth comment in here would have been, "Why is Len Klady's estimate so different than Nikki's or whomever's?," especially when Mojo hadn't posted their estimate yet.
And it is a fact that Nikki's box office is more widely read than anyone else's because of Drudge... she may know nothing about box office and just mouth the platitudes of others, but it would be stupid of me not to be conscious of what she's selling and irresponsible of me not to correct it - with a full explanation of how and why it is wrong - when it is obviously wrong.
I am intrigued that you see OCD when I do my job... which is knowing everything that's out there and considering it all before synthesizing it into an entry. It's called journalism. How it's done has changed and the standards have fallen into the toilet, but I still believe the job is to gather ALL the info you can, chew on it, and offer a considered piece in response. I am the New Old School.
Posted by: David Poland
at August 1, 2009 03:05 PM
I'm a little stunned that "The Collector" opened as (relatively) okay as it did considering the dearth of advertising (never saw a TV spot or even a theatrical trailer). The film itself is beyond l
loathsome: far worse than any of the "Saw"s or even "Hostel 2." And this is coming from someone who considers "Salo" one of the greatest films of all time, and who gave the original "Hostel" a three-and-a-half star review. I can't understand why anyone would pay good money to see something that makes you feel so completely and utterly degraded.
I was tempted to buttonhole the half-dozen or so paying customers at my Friday matinee and ask, "What possessed you to actually come out of the house and see this movie?;" "Did you like it? Why? How?;" and finally, "Why didn't you go and see 'Funny People' instead?"
Still no Variety review posted as of 6:20 P.M. EST Saturday afternoon. That alone says something...just not exactly sure what.
Sorry to see that "FP" didn't open a little better. It's my favorite non-Pixar movie of the summer, and a better Adam Sandler/James L. Brooks movie than Sandler's actual Brooks movie. In fact, I think it compares favorably to Brooks' "Broadcast News" which is high praise indeed.
Posted by: movieman
at August 1, 2009 03:27 PM
Honestly, Dave, can we get off the defending Bruno bandwagon? The movie was a commercial disappointment, plan and simple - it's going to end up grossing half domestically than Borat for double the budget. Could that also happen to Funny People (vs. Knocked Up)? Sure, but we're not there, yet.
Do you have some resentment about Apatow? Sure, he's gotten a lot of media love? But wouldn't rather you see more interviews with him than Megan Fox or Michael Bay? I think it's safe to say he's one of the good guys, easier to root for, and his run and influence over the past few years is pretty much unparalled - don't forget this guy also produced Superbad, Talladega Nights, Anchorman, Stepbrothers, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Pineapple Express, and a few others - that's a lot of memorable bits and a lot of box office. Yeah, Drillbit Taylor and Walk Hard flopped, but I would take his recent batting average over just about any one out there.
And if we're going to talk about over-exposure and excessive media hype, are you really going to let Bruno off the hook????? Sasha Baron Cohen was EVERYWHERE to promote the movie - you could not avoid him for a few weeks. And all of the OpEd pieces written, too? The Funny People hype wasn't even in the same ballpark (and let me know how much Uni spent on marketing for each, I have little doubt which one got more dollars to promote it). With all the pre-release hype for Bruno, it's going to barely squeak past $65 million domestic, it will still be $20 million behind Brokeback Mountain - you can't tell me that's not disappointing.
The Funny People number is disappointing, but I'm not sure if comparing to other Adam Sandler openings is completely fair - it's the first R rated comedy he's done in over ten years! Comparing it to Knocked Up is more fair and it is disappointing in that vein. $100 million is still a possibility, though; remember how decent legs dragged both Step Brothers and Tropic Thunder over $100 million last summer after similar openings.
Posted by: Geoff
at August 1, 2009 04:04 PM
Again... I never know why the stating the facts has to be turned into me having some personal issue.
Did you read me write a word suggesting Bruno wasn't hyped? Have you read me suggest at any time that the Bruno number, compared to the Borat number, was underwhelming? In fact, I said from the day I saw it that it would perform, just not anywhere close to Borat. My original guess was $80m - $110m. And yes, it will be short of that.
But is it a DISASTER as it is being endlessly portrayed in the press? Unequivocally, no.
Is it the job of the media to write about what it expected and how a film performed against their expectations or to report the f-ing facts with some perspective? I choose the latter. You think it should be the former? Great. Enjoy being lied to because if you do, you become one of the many who seem to prefer being lied to so long as the lie agrees with your opinion.
As a civilian, you have an absolute right to your opinion. You can crow about it all day every day. As a journalist, one does not. Period. If you don't have the facts, you are not doing journalism.
And where you do you get this "bashing Judd Apatow" shite? I am a Judd Apatow fan. But not as a journalist. But there are plenty of journos who just want to suck the man's ass so they can bathe in his glow.
I would have LOVED if this was Apatow's "Manhattan." But that's not the point.
The point is, he is very, very successful. He has been very, very influential. But he is not infallible and he and his pals are beginning to price themselves out of the market a bit.
My writing on this in the entry was a DEFENSE of Apatow against the backlash that will probably hit in the next few days. This opening should not be seen as a huge disappointment. Nor should Bruno, for that matter. But the hype machine builds up and up and up - and I don't blame the talent or the studios for that... I blame the whorishness of current e-journalism - and then tears them down based on the hype that the journalists created.
Is the studio NOT supposed to do their job to sell a movie? Was Universal meant to pull back on either film so YOUR expectations wouldn't be so high?
This is a silly, silly conversation.
Posted by: David Poland
at August 1, 2009 04:18 PM
Even though I am a "civilian," I don't like being lied to nor am I pretending that I am not being lied to. Money is money and expectations are expectations, it's that simple - Bruno did NOT live up to expectations.
Obviously, Universal expected it to make more, spent more to produce that result, and they were unsuccessful. I'm not losing any sleep over it and I'm not saying they are bad people; however, you could say they were foolhardy to release it in mid-July and and spend so much, given the subject matter. And on that level, it could easily be considered a DISASTER, fair or not. The presss was being fed this guy for weeks and got some strong opinions about his movie; in the end, his film will end making less than I Love You Man or Baby Mama.
Honestly, I know a lot of people who are anything but homophobic and love a good laugh, but still had no absolutely desire to see the film because it just grossed them out a bit to see some one try to molest Ron Paul, among other things. I still don't hear you denying that Universal spent the marketing equivalent of a summer tentpole on this type of film and it just never was going to work.
And sorry, but in your initial post, you WERE downplaying Apatow's recent success and how could he get so much coverage, because his last film did not gross as much internationally as Mr. Bean or Wild Hogs???? I mean, truly, honestly, really - did you hope or expect that Walt Becker (actually had to look it up on IMDB - director of Wild Hogs) would now be getting more interviews and coverage than Judd Apatow? That would seem to be more the tastes of a "civilian" and I highly doubt that.
Because that was your implication; you basically spent three paragraphs on a box office report downplaying the Apatow brand. Respectfully, if the shoe fits.....
Posted by: Geoff
at August 1, 2009 05:29 PM
movieman, The Collector was marketed extremely well to its target audience. Dunstan and Melton have a devoted following amongst the horror crowd due to the Saw sequels and Feast flicks. The Collector got a lot of coverage on sites like Arrow in the Head, Dread Central, Shock Till You Drop and Fangoria. It got a very positive review on AICN. It was solid niche marketing.
Posted by: Stella's Boy
at August 1, 2009 05:57 PM
Geoff, and I Love You, made $18m overseas (for a ww total of $90m and then Baby Mama made an astonishing (that is actually a very appropriate word) $3.6m internationally for a ww total of $64m. Bruno on the other hand as so far made $60m in both US and international markets plus a bit more to come.
"Knocked Up grossed less than Wild Hogs and Mr Bean? Oh man......"
Well, let's look at it this way: Wild Hogs was Disney and had actual stars like John Travolta and (as loathed as I am to say it) Tim Allen. Mr Bean is as much a brand name anywhere that isn't America as much as Harry Potter. You guys have your stupid, poorly made, unfunny, witless shit that people flock to no matter the quality so how bout not knocking us international people for having the same? Yeah?
::twitch::
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at August 1, 2009 06:07 PM
Interesting, Stella.
Except for AICN and Fangoria (which, I'm almost ashamed to admit, I only know from the magazine: does the print edition still exist? haven't picked up a copy since my college days), I've never heard of those websites. Apparently Freestyle's stealth "marketing campaign" pitched exclusively to the entrails-and-viscsera-loving base worked. Kind of.
I still think the movie is absolute shit, no matter how many AICN "correspondents" (barely functioning illiterates all) raved about it.
The production values, and performances, are strictly (mediocre) 1978 porno/amateur hour level, and the ceaseless, nauseating succession of torture setpieces prevented me from finishing my popcorn (which almost never happens).
Loathsome, contemptible, debased....and I kind of dug the original "Feast" (amusingly profiled on the last season of "Project Greenlight") and flat-out love the primitive stylings of vintage Herschell Gordon Lewis, so I hope no one accuses me of being a genre-hater. Nothing could be farther from the truth, although I'll cop to loathing the entire "Saw" series.
Posted by: movieman
at August 1, 2009 06:13 PM
Did someone insult Mr. Bean? If they insulted Mr. Bean. I am going to take my Ultimate Mr. Bean boxset, and beat you about the head with it. That's right! YEAH!
Posted by: IOIOIOI
at August 1, 2009 06:55 PM
I really hate to admit I like Mr. Bean. I like silly at times.
but Fratboy stupid is something I just can't get into. Hence Funny people fell pretty flat with me. It was dense.
Posted by: Lota
at August 1, 2009 07:40 PM
The highest grossing (domestic) Adam Sandler R-rated film? "Bulletproof," with $21 million. The opening weekend of "Funny People" will most likely eclipse that.
Thanks for not being in the Disappointment Camp, David. Universal said "Funny People" was on track to make $25 million, but Finke's "soft opening" bullshit is based on rival studios tracking the film to make upwards of $40 million (and her assumption that Universal through out that number to offset expectations and NOT because that's what the tracking was predicting). So because rival studios set the bar higher it looks like a disappointment because the film didn't meet those expectations. Even though Universal's tracking was right. Granted, I'm sure Universal would love this film to have made even more money. But "Funny People" did what they expected. The film's opening weekend will be in-between Apatow-directed "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" and "Knocked Up." It'll be the highest grossing Adam Sandler R-rated film by Monday or Tuesday if one were to factor in the worldwide grosses of those past R-rated films.
Posted by: Joseph
at August 1, 2009 08:52 PM
The Mr Bean TV series is great, the movies are completely shit.
Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0
at August 2, 2009 12:32 AM
"So because rival studios set the bar higher it looks like a disappointment because the film didn't meet those expectations."
Exactly. I just loved when rival studios toss out unrealistic numbers for an opening weekend of someone else's film. Peal Harbor WILL make $100 million in four days! Blair Witch 2 WILL make $30 million opening weekend! What? Pearl Harbor only made $75 million in four days? Wow, what a disappointment!! It's the same thing in politics, when (for example) the GOP swears up and down that the Dems will gain 15 points after their national convention. When they 'only' gain 8 points, they exclaim "Oh, it's obvious that they are not connecting with the American people".
I suppose the other issue is that (especially pundits) expect a star's new movie to always open at the top level possible for that star. Adam Sandler has had several $40 million+ openings so surely anything that he headlines should damn well open to $40 million, regardless of the variables.
Posted by: Scott Mendelson
at August 2, 2009 06:53 AM
Managed to see "In the Loop" yesterday when I was in D.C. Although the audience laughed it up -- this is inside the Beltway after all -- ordinary Americans won't get it unless they read the Brit press on a regular basis.
I actually saw two billboards for "The Collector" yesterday while driving through Philadelphia. Freestyle Releasing knows where the main audience for that movie lives.
Speaking of Philly and D.C. every bridge and highway going to the ocean was gridlocked. Recession or not, people have been burned out by all the overhyped product.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at August 2, 2009 07:39 AM
Maybe they were all going to the beach to see movies.
Posted by: The Big Perm
at August 2, 2009 09:35 AM
It was actually around 90 and no rain in the forecast.
Posted by: Chucky in Jersey
at August 2, 2009 10:10 AM
I'll go with $70M for Funny People's domestic gross.
I saw the film yesterday. And I think DP's review sort of nails it: yes, I did laugh through out, I did get moved at times. But the last half in particular there is big malaise of what the hell is this leading towards. I wasn't particularly enamored with any character. The "emotional scenes" with Mann and Sandler aren't cringeworthy, but really don't connect. Aubrey Plaza's character...what was she doing there? some of the cameos are funny. some just sit there.
In the end I couldn't wait for it to be over. My wife poked me at one point, motioning towards her watch. I said 30 minutes left and her eyes rolled. It's lazy frankly that they couldn't put this movie closer to 2 hours.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at August 2, 2009 10:31 AM
Chucky you're right, I'm certain all of those people going to the beach were specifically trying to get away from overhyped movies.
Posted by: The Big Perm
at August 2, 2009 10:45 AM
I dunno, Chucky. Some friends and I saw IN THE LOOP yesterday (in Westwood). It was a packed theater and there was hysterical laughter throughout. It helps to have an interest in politics, I suppose, but I think a closer connection is acerbic British comedy: people who like the original THE OFFICE and Monty Python, for example. And who doesn't like brilliantly inventive cursing? This movie's a quote feast for the ages.
Posted by: Telemachos
at August 2, 2009 01:02 PM
Here's a question that I don't expect to be answered -
Chucky, how'd you like the movie?
Posted by: jeffmcm
at August 2, 2009 04:27 PM
I think that Chucky secretly pines to be a high-level studio marketing guru, and we are his guinea pigs.
Posted by: martin
at August 2, 2009 06:04 PM
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