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August 17, 2009
More-a Culpa
Another day, another distributor that's had some trouble as of late throwing itself on the mercy of the media. In this case, it's Shmuger, Linde, and Meyer sayng, "Yes ma'am, we'll do better" (aka "nothing"), to Claudia Eller over and over and over again in the LA Times
God, I hate August.
Ironically, the veteran movie beat reporter Eller offers, unintentionally, the argument as to why a non-beat reporter covering The Weinstein Co at NYT may have been a smarter choice than I would have argued it was yesterday. Of course, the NYT reporter asked around and reported some of the cliches about Harvey Weinstein. But Eller's interview has the stench of someone who is used to determining what the news is and asking questions designed to get the expected answers. In this case, the execs gave her exactly what she wanted... because that's why they were doing the interview in the first place.
(Note: This kind of agenda setting before the summer ends was really launched, brilliantly, but Warner Bros. in the summer when every movie lost money. They went to the NYT and Hugh Grant-ed their way through the economics of every movie, spinning hard, but getting away with it because they appeared to be being so forthcoming. And as a result, the execs survived one of the worst summers in modern movie history. Clearly, others were paying attention.)
I don't know how managed this interview was, so i can't speak to whether Eller, in her focus on these "gotcha" style questions that got almost nothing, forgot how to ask hard follow-up questions. Here are a few that I would like to have seen answered... or not answered:
Under what circumstance is an actor worth $10 million or more in a movie? How big is the list of actors that might be worth that right now?
How bad is the DVD drop-off, really? Is domestic box office 10% more of the overall revenue of the average film now?
How much is it The Movies and how much is it The Marketing now? When you talk about getting back to comedies... isn't that the genre you, Marc, best marketed yourself when that was your department?
Adult Dramas... you just greenlit another one with Ridley Scott directing Leo DiCaprio. Or would you classify that as sci-fi and therefore targeting a different audience? But back to Adult Dramas... obviously the mass market is limited. So what is a reasonable expectation of a domestic gross for a successful - not a breakout - Adult Drama now? $50 million? $70 million? Can you make films in that category for over $50 million anymore? Or is that budget level still too high?
And in dealing with the individual pictures... What is the standard of "didn't find an audience" when you are talking about a one-man movie that will make good money? Is there any comparison other than Borat in which Bruno looks like it failed?
Duplicity was NOT an Adult Drama... it was a comedy with middle-aged stars. It did $80m worldwide. What budget would you make a movie like that one again, with a star like Ms Roberts?
Is Funny People a risk that any studio could avoid, given the Apatow track record. Regardless of the result, is that really a movie that you would back away from, going into the deal? And what control do you have in the new Apatow deal that assures that he will make straight-up comedies and not soul-searching dramedies with your money?
Land of The Lost was out there, yes... but was the box office failure the marketing target or the movie itself? The budget may speak to the film itself, but what are the lessons of the film not opening?
How DID you get hurt on Frost/Nixon? Were you counting too much on awards selling the movie for you? Was it the period? You seemed reluctant to really open the movie, outside of NY and LA.
Anyway...
Another shocker in the piece was Eller's complete failure to mention head of production Donna Langley. You may remember, Claudia was the one who made hype out of Nina Jacobson getting fired at Disney while in labor. (Oy!) Ms. Langley recently gave birth, which is one of the reasons why I have dismissed rumors of her being fired this summer (too messy... no studio is putting themselves through that attack again). But not mentioning the head of production for the last few years when discussing problems with the slate... really?
You know... this is by the book stuff. Claudia, who can be one of the smartest, toughest writers on the film business, can also be one of the most profound suck-ups. And even though this is a piece that says out loud what everyone has been rumoring about all summer... this piece is an old school laydown. Sorry.
My take on Universal? They made some mistakes this year, but mostly, they got caught a step behind the DVD slowdown and it bit them a little harder than it bit others. They invested in too many actors who were superstars in their 30s and who are in that hard middle age of Hollywood stardom. Just look at Meryl Streep. Commercially, she was in the woods from Out of Africa, when she was 36 until she started emerging as a tough mature woman with The Manchurian Candidate at 57 years of age. At 59, she starred in the most profitable movie of the year - even more so than The Dark Knight - Mamma Mia!.
They also got too risk averse to have things work. Frost/Nixon was on more than 500 screens for ONE weekend in its run, One! It turned out that Land of The Lost was a stoner comedy and the studio never quite decided to whom they were selling it... kids?... geeks?... who? Duplicity was a caper comedy and was sold like a weird rom-com. And I think they got everything there was to get out of Funny People and Bruno. The first was sold as a comedy... about a guy dying of cancer. Oy. And on Bruno, besides the fact that it will MAKE MONEY, no one wants to speak to the homophobia in our culture and that the gayness turned off a lot of people who enjoyed Borat. Also, they played on his gayness - perhaps at SBC's insistence - but the movie was more about a man who desperately wants to be famous, which may or may not have been a more attractive vein to tap.
Mistakes were made. Budget cutting was not sharp enough... though this is also true at WB and Paramount, for sure... some at Sony... and Disney's G-Force was really THAT expensive? And the DVD business rewrite the rules... which others saw coming a year earlier than Universal, apparently.
I don't know if this will close the door on the negativity, as it clearly is intended to. But they have reduced their fall expenses to a Vince Vaughn ensemble comedy and a Nancy Meyers comedy with Streep. The worst of 2009 is over. And 2010 will either be a resurrection or the entire film leadership will be gone before Despicable Me lands in theaters next summer. It's no so complicated.
Posted by dpoland at August 17, 2009 11:41 AM
Comments
They made two big mistakes. Betting too heavily on Appatow, and keeping on track with "State of Play" after Brad Pitt left the project.
Duplicity is a forgiveable mis-step, having just watched the movie recently I completely understand the mixed reaction. For me the film half-works. State of Play is a different slope, a political thriller without thrills.
The piece didn't get into their other two huge gambles for next summer: a Robin Hood movie and another Meet the Parents movie.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at August 17, 2009 02:09 PM
"Duplicity was NOT an Adult Drama"
THANK you. If I read the phrase "dark dramas such as Duplicity" in one more Universal-bashing piece, I'm going to throw my laptop across the room.
Plus, I know I'm pretty much alone in this, but Duplicity is my favorite studio movie of the year.
Posted by: Rob
at August 17, 2009 02:35 PM
Hopscotch, I don't really see how another MEET THE PARENTS sequel is a gamble - unless they had to pay the key participants (Stiller, De Niro, etc) massive coinage to secure their involvement.
As far as the Crowe ROBIN HOOD flick, you're probably right in calling it a gamble, but I don't think anyone should be surprised if this does well. A trim Crowe in an action/period flick of which the topic has widespread name recognition with the public. Hell, even Summit could probably effectively market this film.
That being said, I'm disappointed that the film's original conception - the revisionist take w/ Bale as a more gray Robin Hood and Crowe as a more positively presented Sheriff - didn't make it to the screen. Now THAT would have been a hell of a gamble!
Posted by: Che sucks
at August 17, 2009 02:41 PM
How the hell did Frost/Nixon cost $28 million? It's a movie about two guys -- played by respected actors rather than top-dollar movies stars -- sitting down and talking!
Something seems really wrong with Hollywood if Frost/Nixon costs about the same as District 9.
Posted by: LYT
at August 17, 2009 03:11 PM
Che sucks, my sources tell me the following:
De Niro - $20M
Stiller - $20M
Owen Wilson - $15M
Writer (Hamberg)- $4M
Director (Weitz)- $7M
That's $66M right there with Hoffman and Streisand and the rest of the production to go. sure the second was a big hit... nearly 5 years ago. I'm just sayin' if it's a hit, it'll be a pricey one for sure.
Posted by: Hopscotch
at August 17, 2009 03:26 PM
Luke, did you actually see FROST/NIXON? It's a lot more than two guys talking. There are dozens of speaking parts (including not-cheap folks like Kevin Bacon, Sam Rockwell and Oliver Platt), numerous sets and locations, and a great deal of period detritus that had to be researched and cleared. Given that it's almost impossible to shoot a film with a full union crew for under $25 million these days, I'd say they did a damn fine job of squeezing the nickels.
Posted by: Cadavra
at August 17, 2009 05:47 PM
"not-cheap folks like Kevin Bacon, Sam Rockwell and Oliver Platt"
How not-cheap? Have any of them opened a movie lately? At best, $1 million apiece, I'd guess, and that's generous. Not to mention some of the actors had done the stage play before, and needed less rehearsal.
"a great deal of period detritus that had to be researched and cleared." - most of it researched for the original play already, and/or on video, no?
"numerous sets and locations" -- most of them interiors, as I recall. Getting the actual Nixon locations likely cost something, I grant.
Still...nearly $30 million? Might be unfair to compare to District 9 given the different nations they were shot in, but what a contrast on value for money.
Posted by: LYT
at August 17, 2009 09:52 PM
Yeah, that's silly. That movie could have been shot for under $5 million just for the costs of the actualy production. I can totally believe that the cast + Ron Howard + Brian Grazer + Peter Morgan all combined added up to $25 million or so.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at August 17, 2009 10:21 PM
Here is what I don't get:
You're interested in the 'hard' follow-up questions that didn't get asked-why aren't you out there asking them yourself?
I submit this:
"But Eller's interview has the stench of someone who is used to determining what the news is and asking questions designed to get the expected answers'
I had to read that three times to see if you were actually serious-this is coming from the guy who kisses the asses of anyone who finds the time to come on your D/P 30 segments!!!! :)
You're showing your HotBlog audience (and making money from) your 'D/P 30' interviews, but you don't seem to be asking the hard questions you expect your 'colleagues' to be asking! Are you requesting 'D/P 30' interviews from the same people that Eller is interviewing, and if so, would you actually ask the questions you just put forward?
I'm not even saying that you don't have access to the A list group (because you seem to), but I think it would up your credibility in this post if anyone who reads you actually saw you say these things in front of those people.
Be realistic! You know that in journalism, you can burn your sources, you can be a pushover (as you claim Eller is), or you can tow the line and get by (which usually leads to mediocrity, but welcome to the new world order!).
No joke-My idea for the next 'Super Movie Friends' : you, Sharon, Nikke, Claudia, Peter B., Peter G., Patrick, Kenny, Glenn, Anne, Devon, Harry, Drew, AO, Roger, Manohla, Michael and Jeff sit down in a room (I'm sure I'm missing a few of the heavyweights, but you'll know who they are); no yelling-just an open discussion of the true state of movie journalism! You can get your points out once and for all in front of the group, and everyone else can have a turn.
Posted by: Jack Walsh
at August 18, 2009 05:48 AM
I can never tell with people like you, "Jack Walsh," whether you are an outside trying to sound like an insider or an insider trying to make excuses for other insiders. Either way, you are correct... you don't much get me or how this all works.
If you were reading carefully, you would get that Universal won't be doing that interview with me (or others who would not roll over to their agenda) because they don't want to be getting into those harder questions. It's not exactly brain surgery to figure this out. It's a placement of sorts.
I don't know where you get these odd ideas about DP/30. They are not a revenue source for me... quite the opposite.... which is not to say that I wouldn't like them to be profitable someday.
As for the content of DP/30 interviews, they are not hard news interviews and don't pretend to be. A large percentage of the interviews stem from me liking the work. I see a film and I want to engage the talent, behind the camera or in front. It's pretty rare that I ask someone to do one of these while no liking the work. Why would I want to? Why would they want to? There have been occasions when I really want to talk to a particular filmmaker and the most recent work is not so great. But as in all of these interviews, it is usually a broader canvas than just one film.
I actually have a couple of studio chiefs lined up for DP/30 in the next couple of months, but even then, I am not very interested in deconstructing this quarter's P&L statement. If I had Shmuger & Linde on tomorrow, my goal would be to discuss what their philosophy of film and of running a studio IS, not what success and failure they have had. Yes, the aggressive discussion about their current struggles would be more news worthy... but DP/30 is not a news event.
Moreover, I decided years and years ago that I didn't want to waste my time and energy fighting to get studios to admit what they can never admit. I am not someone who calls up to get the "no comment." I know when it is coming.
But I can tell you, as a reader of mine and of the other content, what you are reading. Claudia's interview purports to be a hard-hitting, probing interview of co-studio chiefs in trouble. It's a softball. And that's why it got done. Patrick Goldstein, who, of course, tows the company line and claims this is a tough-minded interview, admits as much himself: "At Paramount, when things went south earlier this year, with top execs John Lesher and Brad Weston getting the ax, studio chief Brad Grey stayed above the fray, far from any incoming media fire. 20th Century Fox chieftains Tom Rothman and Jim Gianopulos wouldn't dream of subjecting themselves to a public grilling when things go bad, as they did last summer." He is, not shockingly, wrong about Paramount, as the bosses scandalously attacked Lesher on the way out via Nikki Finke and others. But much as we disagree, he is stating, as I have, that execs are risk averse... not an insane position for them to take.
Be realistic? Am I really supposed to accept that I either have to be a scumbag or a pushover to be a journalist? Those are really the two options?
I would love to have a large group of writers discuss where things are in the e-journo biz. But as with studio chiefs, most are way to afraid of getting exposed to show up. There is not a person you mentioned - except Wells - who I would not invite to shoot video with me, together with others or on their own. I could give you the reasons why 3 or 4 of them would do it and another dozen would not. But frankly, their drama is not your business. Even though I know it, it's not much my business either.
Finally... every single person on that list knows my points. Hell, Patrick did a virtual rewrite of what I wrote. And you can be sure that this entry was waiting on the desks of the execs at Universal this morning.
Posted by: David Poland
at August 18, 2009 05:03 PM
I'd like to see a Super Movie Friends with DP, Wells, Friedman, Finke, McWeeny and Goldstein. Maybe throw LexG in there as well. Who wouldn't want to watch that?
Posted by: martin
at August 18, 2009 05:33 PM
Um-maybe I'm late to the party, but you don't make money off the D/P 30's? They are on your website, for which you do sell ads, to studios and other movie industry related groups, right? I think the people who buy advertising from you should hold on to that quote for the next time Oscar season comes around and you try to tell them that you generate way more page views than Finke!
So your argument here seems to boil down to, "I don't ask the questions to the people in charge, because I already know the answers! But, I will slam anybody who might be trying to ask the questions, and gets the answers that I already knew I would get?"
There is a huge line between a scumbag and a pushover in any kind of journalism, but my point was that you don't even seem to be trying the in- between-you're too busy standing on the sidelines judging , and calling everyone else those names!
Posted by: Jack Walsh
at August 18, 2009 05:49 PM
Jack - The term is monetize. Until you see an ad in a DP/30 spot, you cannot claim that Dave is using them to generate money just because the site en totale has advertising.
As for the roundtable - I've read Dave long enough to know he would actually want to try that, but you're not going to get at least half of that list to show up because it's in their best interest to not have a formal criteria or standard of any kind. He's made that point dozens of times over the years.
As for journos - You state in the first that their are three kinds of entertainment journalists, and then in the follow-up, you crack Dave for not being one of the three. Except previously, you assert he's a pushover because DP/30 are friendly interviews.
Posted by: Martin S
at August 19, 2009 06:06 AM
Martin,
Immediate monetizing of the D/P 30 segments has nothing to do with it. How can you claim that anything that is new on a website that ends up creating additional page views for said website is not adding overall value to the bottom line?
Lets say an tv established show (i.e. Letterman) has a fixed ad rate based on total number is viewers (~3-4 million per night). If that show ads a new segment (a la D/P 30) that doubles the number of viewers solely because they love that segment, they're going to generate more revenue after the viewership has been measured during sweeps. But, if I understand you correctly, you're arguing that you can't say that the added segment is responsible for that revenue?
As for journalistic standards-if it isn't in the best interest of the people on that list to have any sort of 'formal standards', how can you say that Dave is any different? Like I said-he has the ability to go ahead and try to ask the tough questions that he wants answered, but instead, I'm on this site reading his criticism about the others that don't!
I can go into my work performance review at the end of the year and say "I have a million ideas that will fix this company, but I already know my boss is gonna say no, so I'll just continue to keep them to myself!". Guess what kind of bonus that would get me?
I'm sorry if my criticism is harsh, and honestly, I mean no disrespect to Dave. I'm sure that I rub him the wrong way because I only seem to comment when I am criticizing, which is not fair to him. However, I have also been reading him since the TNT days, and sometimes it just frustrates me that he brings up a lot of good points about a variety of different issues, but I don't see any reason why he can't go after the answers himself, before criticizing others who do (even if they fail).
Posted by: Jack Walsh
at August 19, 2009 09:45 AM
Sorry I didn't respond more quickly to round 2, Jack.
Not that it's really any of your business, but MCN is bought for awards season because of who we reach, not because of how many we reach. As you may notice, we don't run ad servers that have some random and some targeted ads. Not the model I decided on. This doesn't mean that overall page views don't matter. They do. But we are much more in the business of choosing content that we feel will impact our core audience of industry readers, regardless of the direct cause-and-effect on page views. And we have been very fortunate to be early into this party and establish a beachhead.
The rest of the stuff inspired an overlong piece about how it all fits together. It will be up shortly.
Posted by: David Poland
at August 19, 2009 12:16 PM
"not-cheap folks like Kevin Bacon, Sam Rockwell and Oliver Platt...How not-cheap? Have any of them opened a movie lately? At best, $1 million apiece, I'd guess, and that's generous. Not to mention some of the actors had done the stage play before, and needed less rehearsal."
Even if they were a million combined, it's still a lot more than scale + 10.
"a great deal of period detritus that had to be researched and cleared. - most of it researched for the original play already, and/or on video, no?"
No. The play was done on a bare stage with video monitors showing the action and some occasional photographs and clips. Licensing clips for films is a lot more than for stage. Plus there were all those vintage network posters, signs, props, etc., that had to be either located or remade from scratch.
"numerous sets and locations" -- most of them interiors, as I recall. Getting the actual Nixon locations likely cost something, I grant."
Interiors still have to be built and dressed, even if parts are recycled from previous films.
"Still...nearly $30 million? Might be unfair to compare to District 9 given the different nations they were shot in, but what a contrast on value for money."
Instead of comparing it to a foreign film where everyone worked for scale and the effects were done in-house by the producer's FX shop, why not compare it to, say, SPANGLISH, which cost something like $95 million and was shot largely in one actual house with a very small cast?
Posted by: Cadavra
at August 19, 2009 01:14 PM
"Instead of comparing it to a foreign film where everyone worked for scale and the effects were done in-house by the producer's FX shop..."
well, that's not entirely accurate, reflecting what appears to be a common misconception out there re: D-9, which was produced out of enzed by wingnut and the special effects (on set in camera) stuff was done by workshop, but while digital was originally slated to do the visual effects (cgi) for D-9, big jim rolled into town and commandeered the joint, so digital was (and still is) utterly swamped with 'avatar'.
consequently the most complicated, time consuming and expensive cgi work for D-9 was farmed out to a great little canadian vis effects co. called 'image engine', who created the really rather impressive, entirely cgi 'prawns', which made up the bulk of the computer imagery. weta digital did a bit, rendering the mothership and the dropship. (and blomkamp's vis effects co. 'the embassy' also did a wee bit here and there but i'm not exactly sure which parts) so anyway, while the special effects were achieved mainly 'in house', the bulk of the costly visual effects were not.
Posted by: leahnz
at August 19, 2009 03:31 PM
"why not compare it to, say, SPANGLISH, which cost something like $95 million"
If the goal is to compare 'silly' with 'utterly lunatic and degenerate', then sure.
Posted by: jeffmcm
at August 19, 2009 08:47 PM
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