The Hot Blog

I really expected to see you slip Princess and the Frog in this chart.

is anyone else sort of feeling a growing sense of Up in the Air becoming the frontrunner?

"Up in the Air" was shifted back to December...hopefully just avoiding a Clooney bloodbath between his 3 films, though I'm surprised "Goats" wasn't the one to move. First weekend in December is generally seen as weakest of holiday season...

*No "Tree of Life?"

*Tired of the Michael Mann defense. I know no one who thinks this has any shot except this site. Hell, "The Hangover" has just as good a shot as BP.

*Bright Star grouped with films that have decidedly mixed or plain bad reviews, and others that have been bumped to next year??? Damaged goods yes, but it's critically aclaimed.

Probably want to bump The Last Station out of "not likely to run this year" with the SPC pick-up.

And it's a bit silly to have something listed as a "90% lock" when no one's seen it. I get that it's clearly a sight-unseen frontrunner by virtue of pedigree, but that word, "lock." I hate it in general but definitely in a case like this.

Same goes for Invictus as an "80% lock," while we're at it.

Ran into Stephen Mirrone at a screening recently. Biutiful is definitely next year. Still working on it.

"Up in the Air" and "Precious" are co-favorites at this (ridiculously early) stage of the 2009 awards season blitzkrieg/bloodbath.
And did anyone really believe that Malick would finish "Tree of Life" in time for a 2009 release?

Uhhh...well as of two days ago it's still slated for a December run...

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/ent/stories/DN-berney_0930gd.ART.State.Edition1.4ba5d39.html

I noticed "Blind Side" is on the charts; Just got that preview a couple times.

Why would Sandra Bullock be adopting a 37-year-old black man? And teaching him how to play football?

For all I know, the movie's a work of genius, but something's vaguely uncomfortable it all... Do they really make shit like that and NOT expect complaints about the "white savior" cliches?

(Also amusing that Bullock appears to have just filmed it simultaneously with that recent romcom and just kept the same bad blonde dye job.)

A couple of comments.

1. 'Coco Before Channel' a BP contender? Seriousy???

2. About your "Mann's #2 high grosser ever has been tagged "a flop"" comment on 'Public Enemies':

So we no longer care about how much movies cost to make, we only care about where the movies end in a director's ouevre, is that it?

And I say this as someone who admires Mann.

This is one of the bad things about the 10-wide field. Middle-of-the-road foreign fare will have a greater chance of getting in over genuinely excellent foreign (and American, true) stuff. Coco Avant Chanel? Christ almighty, that's a bland and boring prospect. I can only shudder and think of La Vie an Rose as a BP nominee too.

I still refuse to believe that "Tree of Life" will be ready in time, Ethan.
..and that's coming from a huge Malick fan ("The New World" was #2 on my 2005 best list; "The Thin Red Line" was my favorite film of 1998; etc.) who can't wait to see it.
Apparition's (fairly recent) decision to move "The Young Victoria" from November to December (18th) would seem to suggest that my prognosis is correct.

For what it's worth, neither Box Office Mojo or Filmjerk have "Life" listed as a December release.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised in the least if it's moved...however I'd think the odds of a release this year are going up; Berney touting this as one of Aparition's first releases and then changing the release date at the last second would be odd.

Boxofficemojo lists it as "Holiday 2009."

As for "Young Victoria," that's pretty surprising because the film is all over the internet. And I have to say while it's good, Blunt's perf is only marginally better than Knightley's last year in "Duchess."

According to people I know around the production, Tree of Life is not going to be ready this year. If it ends up being squeezed in, I will adjust.

Kris... really... you're talking about predictions being silly? Pot meet Kettle.

I assume that sane people comprehend that unseen movies are unseen. As you know, there are films built and targeted to move forward. Nine and Invictus fit. Gran Torino, Changeling, and Flags of Our Fathers would have all likely been in the 10 if there were 10 nominees in those years.

And Nine? It would have to be a shocking disaster for it to not get into the 10. If we were still at 5, I would be much more suspect. But it's not.

10 is a lot of movies. Pretending that movies we haven't seen are not likely to be in the 10 is chickenshit. Big picture. No one cares what you like. No one cares what I like. Even the critical consensus on quality... not the issue.

And to answer the eternal idiocy about me and musicals - there has not been a major musical made in the last decade that was not chasing Oscar. Movies that are built to chase sometimes fail. But not acknowledging pedigree is just plain dumb.

The only reason Nine seems to be the current frontrunner is because there are so few movies of size - and the last truly small movie to win BP was Driving Miss Daisy - and Nine is a boat full of celebrity. It's also about movies.

If it flops off the edge of the world, what will replace it, in terms of looking forward to a winner? I don't think anyone can come close to saying. We'll see what Invictus is. And then... I don't know. Suddenly, Up looks like a real potential winner.

On a related note, how many "for your consideration" movies can one fledgling distrib (i.e., Apparition) properly market in the same awards season?
I'd rather see "Tree of Life" get pushed back til 2010--hell, even Xmas '10--than get lost in the shuffle this December because Apparition didn't have the marketing know-how (or marketing funds) to give it the red carpet treatment that any/every Malick film deserves.

I really liked "Young Victoria:" In fact, I think that it's a better "British royalty period piece" than either of Blanchett's "Elizabeth" movies or "The Duchess." (To index some fairly recent examples.)
Blunt and Friend are sexy as hell together, and the film is surprisingly frisky, approachable (even to non-Brits who weren't raised on Royal Family hijinks) and terrifically entertaining without descending into "Tudors"-style camp/kink.
But as an awards season biggie? Unlikely. As good as it is, it'll probably seem like old news to the majority of Academy voters.
Which is a shame.

"And to answer the eternal idiocy about me and musicals..."

Nobody on this thread had a single thing to say about you and musicals, or they agreed with you.

Tree of Life was financed by Capitol/former-Think... not all the finishing money was in place as of a month or so ago... Apparition was them dumping to another distrib after not being able to get a bigger distrib involved.

So... I have no idea what is real on this film at this point. How much is enough money for Apparition to do the job? I don't know. But no one else much wanted the film, on a money level.

I, too, hope it doesn't get lost. But making a Malick work is a major challenge, worthy of Bob Berney's mind, but not sure about his pockets.

Again: If SPC opts to release Get Low this year, I think Robert Duvall is a Best Actor nominee. And if enough of the right people see That Evening Sun, I think Hal Holbrook is right there alongside him.

joe, you're classic when you get a bee in your bonnet such as in the case of '21' and now 'get low' and duvall

i'm going to join in with some (in my case no doubt useless) drum-thumping for sharlto in 'lead actor': hey academy acting branch, show us one more time that you're hard-out and not just a bunch of fuddy-duddies who only nominate from 'the right films'

TREE OF LIFE = Worst title EVER. If Malick had called it THE WHEAT OF EMPOWERMENT, it couldn't be more embarrassing.

Or at least the most embarrassing since one of those INSANE '70s titles like "Sheila Levine is Dead and Studying the Effects of Marigolds, Or Are Those Sitting Indians at the Stardust Ballroom?"

(That was some Leydon-era humor.)

I'll be championing Sharlto Copley for a LAFCA award, for sure.

Significant character development, improvised dialogue, heavy prosthetics, and frequently having to act convincingly against invisible costars = MASSIVE challenge that he rose to...with ZERO previous feature acting experience.

His fellow actors ought to appreciate the skill that takes...unless they're consumed with jealousy because he hasn't "paid his dues" or whatnot.

Leahnz: Hey, I never claimed 21/i> would win any Oscars...

It's not the predictions that are silly, it's the indication of a "percentage" or considering anything a "lock" when it's just arbitrary positioning.

No one's "pretending" that movies we haven't seen are not going to be in the 10. I'd say I've been doing that for a while now.

And sense you brought it up, I'm not sure WTWTA is going to go down as any classic. It's touching and works, actually more "right now" for me than I expect it to in the future, ironically enough. But the stitches show.

By sense I mean since because I'm a wonderful writer.

Im pretty sure "Topsy Turvy," "Fantasia 2000," and "Rent" were never chasing Oscar, but point taken.

oh joe, sorry, my earlier comment was meant to be a compliment to your enthusiasm, only reading it now do i see it doesn't necessarily come off that way

GO LYT! you do the hard yakka, i'll cheer from down here in the cheap seats

Oh, I think Rent was chasing Oscar... And, come to think of it, didn't Topsy Turvy actually win a couple?

joe, see above in case you miss it (i think i'm getting paranoid about being misunderstood, but anyway i'll try to be less ambiguous in future)

Leahnz: Oh, I knew you were kidding, ya big silly... And I was kidding right back at ya.

Oh, I think Rent was chasing Oscar... And, come to think of it, didn't Topsy Turvy actually win a couple?

Fair enough, I totally forgot. But I don't think it was looking for an Oscar anymore than "Tristram Shandy a Cock and Bull Story," or "Southland Tales" just because it opened at Cannes. Rent?? Really? I guess...but then again I guess every musical ever made wants an Oscar. Fame, The Producers, why not...

EthanG: You read enough "For your Consideration" ads over the years, you come to think EVERY movie is chasing Oscars. I vaguely recall seeing ads promoting John Travolta as a Best Actor nominee for Moment By Moment, so go figure.

"As for "Young Victoria," that's pretty surprising because the film is all over the internet. And I have to say while it's good, Blunt's perf is only marginally better than Knightley's last year in "Duchess.""

"I really liked "Young Victoria:" In fact, I think that it's a better "British royalty period piece" than either of Blanchett's "Elizabeth" movies or "The Duchess." (To index some fairly recent examples.)"

Really? That movie was so vanilla. Absolutely nothing in that movie is surprising in the slightest, and I even thought Blunt's weirdly girly-girly performance was a turn off too.

Thought I'd mention that as a former fan of OscarWatch.com (now AwardsDaily), I find Sascha Stone's continued obsession with critiquing DP interesting. She gets worked up about Hot Blog more than any other site.

Man that place has gone off the rails recently...any criticism of one of the main contributors' faves (aka Hollywood films through and through) is met with shrill, sudden attack.

Leydon:

"Moment by Moment" is pure gold.

Kami said:

"I even thought Blunt's weirdly girly-girly performance was a turn off too."

Shocker.

"...there has not been a major musical made in the last decade..."

Topsy Turvy was released in 1999, bordering on the decade... and not a musical... and certainly not major, except in quality. There are other examples of arthouse musicals - including Bran Nue Dae, at TIFF this year, that are not Oscar chasers. None made by a studio, studio division, or major indie distributor (Topsy being a pick-up).

And God, I got bled for a month over Rent's Oscar aspirations. Ironically, the most person repeatedly reported as the most enraged at me was Tom Sherak. Hopefully, he has forgotten.

Ethan... I am alternatively the most powerful writer about Oscar and can take or give nominations or I am a meaningless hack. Pick a person to ask. Pick a day. I have gotten used to it.

And to the Joe comment... there are contractual deals to promote a lot of actors and movies for Oscar, no matter what the outcome. This has become a much less expected contractual point.

For better or worse, a lot of the movies that a lot of people love and wish were better treated on release are only getting a theatrical at all because of similar contractual obligations that studios don't want to uphold.

Quality and business are often not kept hand-in-hand. It may not be right, but it is real.

What's that supposed to mean, Lex?

I think he's referring to you being gay, KC.

Oh yeah, Lex, Blindside may be based on the real story of a guard that plays for the Ravens named Michael Oher. It's a real story, it really happened, and it should make for a good movie. If they do not make it too schmaltzy.

I figured that. Of course he took the term "turn off" the wrong way.

Nevertheless, Lex is a fuckrag. You can politely shove your gay jokes up your arse (quite appropriately, I think).

I just want to throw in, that Lex is a douche. If he truly hates animation and James Blunt. I love James Blunt damn it. More of a James Morrison fan, but how dare you slam Blunt! You ass!

Another satisfied customer.

Kami, it was a great joke. That I went for. If you do not get that, then HIYOOOOOOOO. You do not appreciate the genius. If you do not I feel sorry for you. To you I say!

(Or however IO says it.)

It's do not play. Come on man. I've been doing it here for five years! FIVE YEARS!

LEXG'S BEST ACTRESS CHARTS, BEGIN BOWING NOW:

90% chance, FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:

Kristen Stewart, Adventureland, New Moon, Cake Eaters.
Megan Fox, Jennifer's Body, TF2.
Jessica Biel, Easy Virtue.
Evan Rachel WOOD, Whatever Works.
Sasha Grey, The Girlfriend Experience.
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds.
Malin Akerman, Couples Retreat, Watchmen.
Sienna Miller, GI Joe.
Allison Lohman, Drag Me to Hell.
Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies.
Mila Kunis, Extract.
Kate Beckinsale, Whiteout.
Ellen Page, Whip It!
Milla Jovovich, Perfect Getaway.
Charlize Theron, The Road.
Carey Mulligan, The Education.
Scarlett Johansson, He's Just Not That Into You.
Emma Stone: Zombieland.
Amber Heard: The Informants, The Stepfather.

GOOD CHOICES.

God I wish Lex and IOI would interact more directly, more often.

No Scout-Taylor-Compton for Halloween II?

BAD OMISSION.

And Rachel Nichols > Sienna Miller in GI Joe.

But Carey Mulligan will win every award known to man, including the Nobel Peace Prize.

On this I agree with Lex: Sienna Miller > Rachel Nichols in G.I. Joe.

Otherwise Lex is a retarded ape.

Nichols is in Supporting (Nichols is pure ownage but there's no denying Miller was the lead in Joe), up against herself for Star Trek. The Scout is the hotness but I liked her badass friend who dressed as a tranny and put her legs up in the van in H2, which gave me a massive BONER. That chick's up for supporting.

Your last sentence: GREAT REFERENCE. Holy shit, I was so proud of that, there are no words.

Again, I have to admit this kind of uncertainly lest it blow my usual shtick:

Kristen Wiig is BANGIN' AS FUCK. YES, PLEASE.

Oh Lex, you're SO HILARIOUS! Making easy jokes about someone's sexuality is just a riot! A GOD DAMN RIOT!

Fucktard.

Kami don't take it the wrong way, he's actually flirting with you.

,,,still stand by my earlier post that "Up in the Air" and "Precious" are co-favorites at this time (with the latter having a slight edge).
Unless there's an Oprah (or Obama?) backlash, "Precious" could very well turn out to be another "Crash"-y underdog for Lionsgate.
As for some other perceived (albeit sight unseen) favorites:
I really can't see a Rob Marshall movie scoring two Best Picture wins in seven years; Clint three-repeating just seems unrealistic; and all of those "LOTR" Oscars he won a few years back are going to have to suffice for Peter Jackson...at least for another couple of decades.
"Up" will almost certainly get nominated thanks to the new 10-nominee rule. But an animated film actually winning--outside of the "Best Animated Feature" ghetto--has to be considered a huge longshot.
I kind of like Dave's new "'Basterds'-is-the-new-'Departed' theory), but am still sticking with my previous picks.

Working in UP's favor - it's about an old white guy. And a lot of Academy voters are old white guys.

Not that that helped Gran Torino (they're sensitive to racism, as witnessed by Crash), but it does seem to help Eastwood movies in general.

I like MCN, it's generally filled with intelligent, thoughtful movie geeks. But the love for Up confounds me, and some of the Oscar predictions like Public Enemies and well, Up, just seem so far out of the mainstream that I wonder if this blog's air is filled with helium.

i could see 'up' being nominated in the 'best pic' ten but for all the reasons already stated here, it has a snowball's chance in hell of winning

(can 'up' be nominated in both the 'best pic' and 'best animated feature' categories? if not, it could walk away with nothing and that might not sit well with the old white dudes)

"but for all the reasons already stated here"

sorry, the 'up' discussion about whether it could win 'best pic' or not was in a different thread