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November 15, 2009

Weekend Estimates by Klady - 11/15/2012

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(NOTE: "Weee" is a typo... the film is Richard Kelly's The Box.

So a few stats from the folk at Sony:

With $160 million worldwide, 2012 is the biggest international opening of all-time for a non-sequel and the #5 international opening of all-time.
1) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, 236m
2) Spider-Man, 3 231m
3 )Pirates of Caribbean:At World’s End, 216m
4) Harry Potter and the Order of Phoenix, 193m
5) 2012, $160m
6) Da Vinci Code, 155m

In North America, the film earned $23.6 million on Friday, was up 5% Saturday to $24.8 million and the studio expects another $16.6 million on Sunday. 2012 is playing at 3,404 locations for a per location average of $19,095.

AND they add about This Is It... he film has now grossed $222.6 million ($155.4 million overseas and $67.2 million domestic)

As for myself...

You have to be lucky about which Roland Emmerich film you get. I can't give the studios too much credit. Like Bruckheimer, Emmerich is pretty self-contained. You could get $270m ww of 10,000 BC (WB) or you could get what seems to be his third $500 million ww grossser. I think the real key is that before you buy, you make sure that your marketing team can start doing the ads, even before the movie is made, and that the ads will involve mayhem of epic proportions.

Roland Emmerich's The Ten Commandments, here we come!!!!

I'm not completely kidding. Just imagine the plagues.

Again, the opening is similar to The Day After Tomorrow... a little better... TDAT did $151 million in that first weekend. The question now is the speed of deterioration in a faster theatrical universe than 5 years ago... plus the advantage of the last film opening on a holiday weekend. Conversely, if the word of mouth isn't too bad - and someone I trust told me last night that for this film of film, they think it actually works... it could get the big benefit ofa Thanksgiving holiday with a few strong titles, but no competing mega-visual flick. Sony's offering Cinemascore - which I never really trust, as it is skewed to people who rushed to see the film/genre - of moviegoers under 18 giving it an A and overall, getting a B+. TDAT's $550m is doable. Could be slightly higher with some good word of mouth... somewhat lower without. but people don't go to go Roland Emmerich movies to think.

A Christmas Carol is reporting a 26% drop. The film is running about 10% behind Elf, though that surprise smash's drop was just 15% in its second weekend.

Precious is the second best limited release story of 2009 (so far), after Paranormal Activity. Lionsgate has to be hoping that the end results will look more like PA than like the #2 limited release movie so far this year, (500) Days of Summer. And it seems likely to lean that way. (500) went to 206 screens in weekend three and totaled $6.8m at the end of the weekend. Paranormal went to 160 in W3 and totaled at $9.1m.

The legitimate question on a movie like Precious is how big the audience that will respond to reviews and the content, as sold, really is. The hope is that momentum from the limited release and those reviews and media hype-rah will create the phenomenology that will push it well past the base. But we won't know until it happens. We do know that Lionsgate has done a terrific job maximizing what they have so far. As much as Oprah is beloved, her history with movies is not that she is a box office guarantee at all. It's more than that.

The dangerous thing about going out and having this success this early is that is the film runs out of gas after Thanksgiving, you're still a full month from Oscar ballots going out. I would be truly shocked if the film isn't nominated, but you want to strike while the iron is hot and there are a lot of studios out the who are going to try to make their big awards push in December.

The Messenger has a nice start for Oscilloscope. Really good little movie. Good on them.

Universal/Focus tried to publicity the veddy Brit Pirate Radio to an opening here, using Phil Hoffman as the front man. It's a tough kind of comedy to sell anyway. When you are reduced to pushing a near-cameo by January Jones as your #2 selling point, you are in marketing trouble. (And if you want to see the end of hope for a greater career for Ms Jones, watch SNL from this weekend. Oy.)

The Fantastic Mr Fox number is meaningless. This is how they open Wes movies. It's a little better opening than Tenenbaums, which was Wes's best domestic grosser with $53 million. I assume that Fox will be opening Fox wider than any Wes Anderson movie has ever been (1105), looking for families. Maybe not. I don't understand tiptoeing on a movie like this. It is an oddball for an animated film. But it's not the is, it's the sell.

Posted by dpoland at November 15, 2009 09:37 AM

Comments

Sorry.... but I has to say...

I'm surprised that the PTA of "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" doesn't change much (from last weekend) as it expands with 125 more theaters this weekend . Maybe "The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day" will even outgross "Bright Star".

Posted by: marychan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 10:04 AM

What the hell is "Weee"?

Posted by: William Goss [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 10:49 AM

Apparently, it is The Box.

It actually seems to be sometime I did when opening the file in Excel and not Len's fault.

Apologies.

Posted by: David Poland [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 10:56 AM

Oscilloscope is doing really jobs on the PR of "The Messenger"; the film is getting more press coverages than I expected.

Posted by: marychan [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 11:28 AM

No problem, Dave. And here I thought it was a sly commentary on how fast that film was dropping off...

Posted by: William Goss [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 11:52 AM

Just to see what others think- does Emmerich really have a monopoly on these big-budget disaster movies? I mean, does he really do it better than anyone else can or is he just lucky in that most of his disaster movies have been successful?

Posted by: counthaku [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 12:31 PM

Just to see what others think- does Emmerich really have a monopoly on these big-budget disaster movies? I mean, does he really do it better than anyone else can or is he just lucky in that most of his disaster movies have been successful?

Posted by: counthaku [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 12:31 PM

Counthaku,
I don't think Emmerich is lucky that his disaster movies have been successful. On the contrary, I think it is evident that he is very, very good at that genre. There are other directors who have tried the disaster movie; Petersen did Poseiden and Jon Amiel did The Core which was equally as bad. But both are evidently capable, if not talented directors (outside of the genre). Emmerich has been so consistently successful that it would be churlish of anyone to deny that when it comes to disaster, he ruins like no one else.

Posted by: The Pope [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 03:30 PM

Let me defend The Core for a second. It has its issues (especially at the very end), but how can you not love a disaster film that has Aaron Eckhart, Hilary Swank, Delroy Lindo, Stanley Tucci, Richard Jenkins, and Alfre Woodard? All those wonderful actors plus DJ Qualls in his only truly fun performance thus far. For me, the film has always been the arthouse version of Armageddon. While the Bay film had macho actors who play out a 'brawn over brains' narrative in the pursuit to save the world, the latter has egghead actors playing egghead characters in a 'smartest people on earth team up to save mankind' plot. It's not art, but it's a lot of fun.

Posted by: Scott Mendelson [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 04:18 PM

Titanic is a better disaster movie than Emmerich could ever hope to do.

That said, I like Emmerich better now that he indulges every whim, as opposed to the ID4/Stargate days when he and Dean Devlin were boasting about how cheap they could make everything for...usually by having endless scenes of terrible dialogue between a handful of money shots.

And Emmerich's Ten Commandments is a GREAT idea. Just keep him away from stuff that has a more elaborate mythology than "bad stuff happens, people flee." 10,000 BC was nigh-unwatchable.

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 04:19 PM

Yeah, Poseidon was pretty awful, and considering that Petersen had already done The Perfect Storm you'd think he could have done better.

I don't know about giving Emmerich a Ten Commandments, but I would love to see a big-budget spectacular version of some other Old Testament stories, David vs. Goliath or Samson & Delilah. And in the aftermath of The Passion of the Christ, I'm disappointed that nobody seems to have bothered.

And now that I've seen The Box, a final gross of about $20 million seems actually pretty good for it.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 04:32 PM

Passion of the Christ did well because the death of Jesus is the focal point of Christianity. Christians don't have a strong emotional or psychological connection to anything in the Old Testament, and even the birth of Jesus isn't a visceral enough thing to get The Nativity Story to open.

Posted by: Rothchild [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 04:43 PM

There was a "Jonah and the Whale" movie, laden with CG effects...only problem is that it starred talking vegetables.

However, it actually wasn't as bad it looked.

Posted by: LYT [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:11 PM

I don't like it, but I have to say another amazing thing about "2012" making bank is that it did it at that length. Shouldn't that portend a better-than-usual hold next week?

Posted by: chris [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:18 PM

Rothchild, if Samson and Delilah could be a huge blockbuster in 1949, I don't see why it couldn't do some business today - even if the filmmakers decided to make it all Clashy and Titany.

And The Nativity Story kind of reeked of a cash-in.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:29 PM

Secret to blockbuster success: Kill Jesus or kill Earth.

Posted by: mutinyco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:35 PM

seriously, did anyone expect 10,000 BC to do DAT numbers?

You know what movie you got with 10,000 BC. You got a movie with no name talent that looked suspect. 2012 has recognizable names with an artistic pallete ticket buyers seem to enjoy once every couple of years.

The fact that 10,000 BC made that much surprises me.

Emmerich's disaster films do well because no one else really does them. They've tried. Does anyone remember the collosal failure of Poseiden?

Say what you want about Emmerich, he has mainstream sensibilities and mainstream film fans don't hate his work. Look at the sell through on DVD and the TV ratings. These are not despised films, though from what you read online you'd think Emmerich was the devil.

personally, i've never loved an Emmerich film, but i've never hated them either. But give the man credit for bringing in huge pictures in terms of scope and being able to bring in a consistent audience.

Posted by: anghus [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:35 PM

I actually recorded SNL for the first time in years last nite just to see January Jones.
Yeah, the show was lousy (although not nearly as poke-my-eyes-out-NOW! wretched as Wanda Sykes' Fox chatshow), but January definitely had her moments, Dave.
The b&w instructional video about how to throw a successful 1950s-era suburban cocktail party was wickedly satirical, and Jones also delivered in the final throwaway skit about a mismatched couple on a (blind?) date in, I'm guessing, Central Park.
For my $, JJ's work in "Mad Men" season two was the best performance I saw anywhere in 2008; including Kate Winslet's towering, majestic perf in "Revolutionary Road."
And she didn't even get an Emmy nomination. For shame.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 05:55 PM

I disagree MM, in almost every skit she played basically the same character. You could say that SNL recognized her limited range, or stereotyped her into certain roles. But it was a pretty bland hosting job, and the writing across the board was as flat as SNL has had in a long time. That farting skit was something that even MadTV would have passed on.

Posted by: martin [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 06:50 PM

I disagree...and agree...Martin.
Yes, the show was fairly lame overall.
I fast-forwarded through most of the "Rear Window"/farting skit, as well as a few of the other bits (and definitely skipped--ugh--the loathsome Fergie's numbers), but JJ was delightful in the two things I referred to earlier.
And anyone who's watched her on "Mad Men" (particularly throughout the 2008 season) knows she's more than just a pretty face and one-note actress. Sadly, she'll probably never get a film role as rich, or multi-dimensional, as Betty Draper.

Posted by: movieman [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 07:05 PM

Saw 2012 last night. It was packed, but the audience seemed pretty indifferent to what was happening. The movie went from boring to laughable to offensive to finally overstaying its welcome.

Emmerich is the Lars Von Trier of big, dumb Hollywood disaster epics. He wallows in human suffering. Unlike Spielberg in War of the Worlds, he displays zero empathy ofrwhat is happening. Like Bay's Pearl Harbor, he gets off on mass death. 2012 is like a high-concept adaptation of An Inconvenient Truth from a script by Glenn Beck.

Emmerich doesn't embrace the pop-trash possibilities of the story. The score is like a funeral dirge. Couldn't he have had some fun by having some disaster montages scored to songs like "White Riot" or "Melt With You"? (The closing-credit song by Filter almost killed me.)

Also, the film is behind the times by having Danny Glover as President. They should've cast the role with a female President.

The only saving grace was Oliver Platt as the most intellgent person life on Earth. I kept wondering what it said about my personality that I kept agreeing with the aPlatt character. As much as they try to make him into a bad guy, I kept thinking he was the most sane person in the film. Even his farewell phone call scene is the best one out of all the others. It works because it is treated as almost a throwaway. It doesn't try to wring tears from the audience.

Posted by: Jimmy the Gent [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 07:15 PM

"2012 is like a high-concept adaptation of An Inconvenient Truth from a script by Glenn Beck."

What?

"Also, the film is behind the times by having Danny Glover as President. They should've cast the role with a female President. "

Huh?

Posted by: a_loco [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 08:30 PM

Because we have a black President now.

The Core was so awful and boring. It was like a stage play versions of a disaster movie. Lots of thrilling scenes in a space train, whee.

Poseidon made the misatke of not going for melodrama, which I think the director said was intentional. When I heard that, I knew the movie would be fucked. What makes movies like that any good IS the melodrama. They had Kurt Russell, great...but they needed and Ernest Borgnine too. I can't remember a thing about that dull movie. The original was on tv the other day and it's still pretty good due to the overwrought drama.

Posted by: The Big Perm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 09:41 PM

Speaking of disaster movies, I watched Knowing today. That movie took a ton of crap in internet land, but I loved it.

Dear Hollywood, please keep making weird shit like that. Thanks!

Posted by: The Big Perm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 09:46 PM

"Dear Perm, you are welcome. Look forward to more random ass movies from us next year. We look forward to wigging you out, and employing Rose Bryne. She's awesome. Sincerely, Hollywood.

PS: David Poland, we don't like you, but damn it your body hair is amazing!"

Posted by: IOIOIOI [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 15, 2009 09:54 PM

Ugh, Knowing.

Speaking of TV (someone was speaking of TV, right?) I saw The Simpsons tonight for the first time in a year or two, and while I still laughed at it, it was suffused with the unmistakable contamination of The Family Guy. Ugh.

Posted by: jeffmcm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 16, 2009 02:02 AM

A agree Knowing is horrible movie

Posted by: disneyland tickets [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 16, 2009 03:01 AM

The international numbers for 10,000 BC are great considering how even Emmerich's fans piled onto him for that one.

Knowing was nigh on depressing, since I had actually just seen Dark City on the big screen weeks earlier to watching it. The Core is dreadful, too. Hilary Swank should never be allowed to fly anything ever again.

David! Stop encouraging the last-minute December glut of Oscar releases. History has showed that plenty of movies fail at Oscar nominations even when they're released in December. Spread them out!

BTW, I'm not sure why exactly, but the whole "Weee" thing made me laugh for about five minutes straight. Just the idea of if is making me chuckle again.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 16, 2009 05:09 AM

2012 is a sequel to Independence Day and Day After T'row...

Posted by: seanwithaw [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 16, 2009 08:58 AM

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