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July 29, 2008

Batman & The Iceberg

Okay... so I get that John Horn had to ask the question... can The Dark Knight pass Titanic or even come close to Titanic at the box office?

And I understand that the new rule at the LAT is local, local, local.

But is it anything less than a dereliction of duty, whether it be Horn's choice or his editors' choice, to not even mention the worldwide box office success of Titanic, which really is what makes the box office landmark the equal of what “Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak is to baseball.”

A domestic lead of $140 million or 23% on #2 Star Wars or $160 million/27% over Shrek 2, which is the #2 highest grosser in its first run alone, is obviously impressive. But the domestic box office is more like the home run record for a season. Eras change and the season home run number got threatened and then beaten… repeatedly. We later realized that the players, not the ball, were juiced.

The Dark Knight’s massive opening was “just” $7.3 million more than the last top film, Spider-Man 3, or a %% bump. Impressive, but not so shocking (except for the fact that it was unexpected from this particular film).

There have been eleven $100 million openings in history and every one has been in the last seven years… seven of the eleven in the last three years. That is a seismic shift in the idea of what is possible in one weekend.

The $400 million mark is less seismic in and of itself, but how we get to that number has changed a lot. For what is now the #2 film, Star Wars, the $400 million mark was only achieved after a third release of the film... the third release earning $138 million, bolstered by the lack of availability of the film. (I believe there was a vhs release, but the film was rare to see on free or pay tv, we were still before a major dvd market… there was an event to a theatrical re-release that seems to be a thing of the past now.) E.T., even more tightly held, also hit $400 million only by re-release, though the total domestic gross from the film’s two re-releases was only $76 million.

Then Star Wars: Episode One did it on its own power. Then Spider-Man (but neither sequel). Then Shrek 2 in 2004, Star Wars: Episode III missing by $20m in 2005, and Pirates II in 2006.

While the trio of three-quels last summer broke a record by all doing $300 million-plus domestic, none did $400m domestic. However, the worldwide numbers were what really mattered to the studios.

Shrek The Third lost $120 million from the prior film’s domestic gross, but held steady internationally to get to a reported $799 million. Spider-Man 3 lost $37 million domestic from its prior entry, but increased worldwide gross by $144 million to get to $890 million worldwide. And Pirates 2 lost in $1124 million in domestic value, but was stead overseas to be one of just five films ever to crack $950 million worldwide (2 Pirates, a Potter, a Ring, and Titanic).

Another thing that remains stunning about Titanic is that it and Jurassic Park are the only “originals” to gross over $900 million worldwide.

But the mega stat is that Titanic did overseas alone more than ANY other movie has grossed in total. International was more than double domestic. The second best all-time international gross is $500 million less than Titanic.

And that is why “titanic numbers” are close to impossible in the current marketplace.

I have said before, at some point, some studio will experiment with day-n-date for one of these mega-movies, something like the last Harry Potter, offering it across the globe in theaters and in one-view-for-one-payment showings through opening weekend into living rooms by satellite and cable. And that movie will gross $600 million in one weekend. And the one-view sales will be enormously profitable, since delivery costs are minimal and providers will take a much smaller cut than the 45% that exhibitors take. And in that moment, someone will have made the most profitable movie ever.

And if the entire industry follows suit, we will see the sky fall for real.

But I digress…

Domestic box office will continue to creep up on Titanic. Someday, perhaps in less than a decade, that number will fall. But the international number is far, far away in comparison. While international box office has grown, the biggest potential markets remain elusive. Piracy is still an issue. And while the habit of opening weekend has become greater in many of the traditional international powerhouse countries, that has led to increases in front-loading grosses, just as in the US. And many of the underscreened countries, recent generations have become habituated to taking what they can get when they get it, not to demand opening weekend access.

The Dark Knight is likely to take Titanic’s domestic lead from the current 27% to as close as half of that, maybe 13% or under $100 million. That’s shouting distance. Ticket price creep can push that further. (Keep in mind, in 1994, when we had the first two $300 million movies in one summer, we went two years before the next (ID4) and then Titanic in 1997, another two before Episode One. It was 2001 before multiple $300 million grossers in the same year became a norm.)

But the 67% lead of Titanic on Rings 3 internationally… that’s a looooooong way to reach.

For The Dark Knight to be the fourth film in history to crack $1 billion will be a big achievement… bigger than any Harry Potter film.

No Batman film has ever even matched the level internationally that it reached at home. But let’s give The Dark Knight that. $500 million at home and $500 million overseas. You’re $850 million away from Titanic.

But let’s give it more. International at 60%! So… $500 million at home, $750 million internationally. And we’re still almost $600 million away from Titanic’s number.

Do you want to believe in miracles? How about $600 million domestic and $900 million worldwide? You’re still almost $350 million away from Titanic.

And for all of you guys who have S.O.O. (Sudden Oscar Obsession), the top two grossing films in history did get Oscar nominations and wins. After that? Aside from the other Rings movies? #30 all-time was the next highest grosser to even be nominated… Forrest Gump. And #31, The Sixth Sense.

Those four movies are the only films to gross as much as $500 million worldwide and to be nominated. And yes, three of the four won. (1994, 1997, 2003) But you’re still looking at four nominations in 14 Oscars, 4 out of 70 nominations…. 5%.

The odds are better than an animated film getting nominated… 1 out of 105 opportunities since Beauty & The Beast got the only nod ever. .1%.

I am all for celebrating the achievement of The Dark Knight. But while hysteria may be fun from someone, that achievement is only great in context. And in the context of reality, this success is very exciting indeed... and not earth-shattering.

The first Batman was a real industry changer.

Titanic was a real industry changer.

Lord of the Rings was an industry changer (good for some, not so good for others).

And this summer, Iron Man is a real industry changer. (Whether that is good or bad, time will tell.)

The Dark Knight is a good movie that everyone underestimated. Everyone. On top of that, it is even more successful than anyone who pays serious attention to box office anticipated, even after the massive opening.

But to hit "Titanic numbers" a film will have to not only match or beat Titanic at home, but unless something changes significantly (and someday, it will), the film will need to do at least $100 million or more than Titanic at home and still be an international giant to get to $1.8 billion.

It really is a 56 game hitting streak. And the headline rhetoric should really be lessened before someone embarrasses themselves.

Oops. Too late.

Posted by poland at 02:27 PM | | Comments (10)

July 23, 2008

Forbes Misses The Mark… Badly

Why are journalists who know better talking about this idiotic Forbes value list as though it made sense?

And then I realize… it’s late summer! Any crap flies as news about now!

I mean, seriously. I have never read anything quite as random and profoundly irrelevant. The list purports to actually say something about the value of actors, but it is so random about the circumstances of rankings, you have to throw your hands up in the air.

There are movies on the list from as long ago as four years… yet it is “the last three wide release movies” of each actor. Yet, Fred Claus is not on the list for Vince Vaughn. And animated films, even if advertised based on the star, like Julia Roberts in Charlotte’s Web, don’t count. Naomi Watts is in the Top Five with films earning (another problem… domestic only) $238 million… $219 of which is from one film King Kong). Sorry, but if two of your last three wide-release films grossed $19 million total and if the one that grossed over $200 million cost over $200 million for a CG monkey, you aren’t on the top of any studio’s value list.

There is also the little problem of back-end, which is clearly not accounted for in any way.... except when, suddenly, the biggest stars are having points counted... but inaccurately.

There is also the problem that in a case like Vince Vaughn’s, the coincidence that he was in a career lull and did Wedding Crashers and Dodgeball for relatively little (seems like Forbes guessed at $5m per) and then The Break Up for $20m isn’t a sane survey… not to mention the absence of Fred Claus and Be Cool (which was not just a cameo and in which he was as advertised as anyone but Travolta) and Vince Vaughn's Wild West Comedy Show, which probably didn’t make the list because it only went out on 962 screens instead of the 1000 which seems to be Forbes’ line for “wide.” If Jennifer Lopez gets stuck with Jersey Girl, how can Vaughn avoid Be Cool?

How did Hugh Jackman get to #9 on this list with 3 films grossing a total of $73.7 million… two outright flops and one soft grosser? Apparently, these three films happen to be the ones he did for $7.4 million total.

Yet where is Daniel Radcliffe on this list with $832 million from his last three films… his “gross income for studios for every dollar he was paid” can’t be less than $10, can it?

What about Seth Rogen, whose last three films grossed $345.9 and for which he got paid, what, $6 million total? $10 million total? Even $15 million total (and he is surely now getting paid that per film) means a $23 return per dollar, blowing away everyone else. And unlike many on this list, he earned every dime of it.

And if anyone at Forbes wants to pretend this project took months and months to research, I cry “bullshit” on them. Anything more than 2 weeks doing this was a waste of a salary. Really. Not complex. I ran the numbers on the first 10 people on the list in less than 30 minutes.

Shall we project into the future? Christian Bale’s last three wide releases – The Dark Knight, 3:10 To Yuma, and The Prestige will gross at least $400 million. To beat Vaughn’s current (not well researched) mark, he will have to have been paid just $27 million for the three films. (I expect Knight to do more than $290 million, so he is even more likely to reach the top!)

But wait, there’s Robert Downey, Jr and his $369m in Iron Man, Zodiac, and Good Night, And Good Luck… if he made less than $26 million on those three films – pretty much a guaranteed bet – he will smash Vaughn. In fact, if his paydays were something like the $12 million total that I suspect might be high, his “per dollar spent” is over $30, more than twice Vaughn’s chart topper.

And what exactly does Forbes think they are doing with Will Smith?

According to their numbers, Smith, who grossed $599.5 million domestically with the “considered” I Am Legend, Pursuit of Happyness, and Hitch, earned $106.3 million for those three films. Huh?

No one else has anything suggesting gross points being counted. So he averaged $35 million upfront for these three films? Huh? He paid himself $35 million on Pursuit? Or he did that for $30 million and charged WB $40 million for I am Legend? The math makes no sense by the standards the magazine set.

These are the same people who are estimating that Ben Stiller made only $38.5 million on The Heartbreak Kid, Night at the Museum, and Meet the Fockers. This is possible, even though Stiller is a $420m comedy guy, because he might have taken a lot more in points… like Smith.

Even worse is Tom Cruise, who doesn’t take big upfront salaries at all, but eats large gross points. But here they have him earning $96 million in three films, one of which we know he got paid almost nothing to be in, as a producer. So again… they have to be estimating based on points. But that is not the standard they are using for everyone else. As a result, Forbes has the “controversial” dropping of two of the biggest stars in the world into also-run status as “value plays.”

This list is so inaccurate, so full of missing movies, and so remarkably misleading as to come close to being a lie. I will include the entire list after the jump, since it should be accessible in a way that Forbes can’t seem to figure out how to make it.

Really, nothing against Vince Vaughn. He is a good buy as actors go, but as in so many cases, it’s because he makes movies that don’t cost a ton to make. The real analysis, even with bad numbers, would be two-fold. Who opens movies and who gives the best return on dollars spent? It is that combination that establishes the value of talent. And in a very small group – currently occupied only by Will Smith – is it consistency of picking winners and then delivering them.

May we never speak of this stupid list again!

Continue reading "Forbes Misses The Mark… Badly" »

Posted by poland at 10:33 PM | | Comments (0)

June 23, 2008

Star Maps

I feel a burning urge to respond to Anne Thompson’s “Fluke Zone” piece, but I am having a hard time nailing down what she is actually arguing.

First, the idea of a “Fluke Zone” is demeaning to the efforts of the talent being discussed and misses the point… it’s anything but a fluke.

There is no such thing as “can’t miss.” There is such a thing as being “can’t miss in a vehicle that connects with your primary demographic.”

There are almost never more than 2 such stars in the business at any one time.

There are stratifications of this principle as well.

Adam Sandler and Denzel Washington are completely reliable stars in America… and reliably have not translated overseas, though Denzel seemed to be improving his standing with Déjà Vu… but then crept back with American Gangster, even with Russell Crowe by his side.

The reason Brad Pitt is “such a big star” is not America, but overseas. He hasn’t had a film perform better in the US than overseas in many years. He has 15 titles with over 60% of their revenue from outside North America, including a 73% overseas stake on Jesse James last year. As a result, he’s only had two films do less than $100 million worldwide in the last 15 years and 10 that have done at least $100 million overseas alone.

Will Smith is the biggest star in the world right now because his films play worldwide and has had just two of his thirteen movies starting in 1996 (ID4) come up short of $100 million domestic and $220m worldwide. And it’s now been seven years since Ali, the last “flop.”

Part of this run, however, is that he’s only gone away from his base once in these last seven years… for The Pursuit of Happyness, which did over $300 million worldwide.

Being a mega movie star is, in great part, about knowing what people want to see you do and doing it.

The decade-long run of Tom Hanks was 13 movies long, the only box office “underperformer” being Philadephia, which did $77 million domestic, $202 worldwide, and won him an Oscar. It was also the only film that Hanks did that was out of the two stock characters he player – Earnest & Goofy.

Tom Cruise’s big run was 14 years and 14 films, though he had two underperformers with Eyes Wide Shut and Magnolia, two efforts to work with top drama directors and/.or to win awards that were not won. But aside from that, a dozen $100 million+ domestic/$200m+ worldwide hits.

Conversely, Julia Roberts run was four years (1997-2000), seven films… with only four of the films cracking $100 million domestic and all for doing over $30m internationally. While she became as star in 1990 with Pretty Woman, she never seemed to be able to deliver the nine-figure grosses more than a couple times in a row. Sleeping With The Enemy would be followed by Flatliners… Hook and Pelican Brief by I Love Trouble and Something To Talk About. That kind of thing.

Harrison Ford, by the way, always felt huge. But he was forever coloring out of the lines and never had The Big Run. The only time in his entire career when he has done $100 million domestic back-to-back were the two times he did Star Wars and Indy back-to-back. In fact, aside from those franchises, he’s had only four films gross $100 million domestic… and one of those was a franchise movie (Jack Ryan). And only three of those four cracked $200m worldwide. Beloved movies like Witness and Working Girl and Presumed Innocent were hits, but not blockbusters. And he always had the tendency to throw some real duds – often ambitious duds – in between the hits.

Stars are valued by their ability to open movies. Mega stars are valued by their ability to open and then deliver $100 million-plus consistently.

Robert Downey Jr. and Shia LaBeouf are talented, but there is no indication that either one is a sure opener. Not even close. The only film LaBeouf has ever opened to real business was Disturbia ($22m) and the film didn’t manage $100 million domestic in spite of great reviews and it came up short of $120 million worldwide. Good for Disturbia, but not a money-in-the-bank star. And anyone who even tries to argue that he had any significant role in opening or delivering on Transformers or Indy 4 needs shock treatment. He may become a star – I imagine not – but he is not close to being money now.

As for Downey… love the work… but if you would gamble money on him delivering a $100 million gross in anything but Iron Man, I’ll sell you a bridge and the papers on Tobey Maguire to boot.

Anyway… this is why this is a difficult conversation. Perception is not reality… but it is real.

And Hollywood wants us to believe in stars because that makes them more valuable as commodities. But as commodities go, very, very few ever have even a remarkable short run, much less the decade or so that the very biggest stars manage to get through.

Posted by poland at 01:07 PM | | Comments (2)

May 05, 2008

The Billion Dollar Paramount '08 Illusion

Paramount is not the first studio to suffer their success. But we are getting a wave of spin from a few voices that seems to be deep in the bag with the denizens of Melrose.

Here’s the deal…

Go back to 1999… Fox releases The Phantom Menace. It “won” the summer, grossing $138 million more domestically than any other film. But all Fox had the rest of the way was Lake Placid and Brokedown Palace, a breakeven comedy and a red ink drama. A $472 million summer meant net revenues for the studio of about $50 million… and roughly another $50 million from Star Wars’ international release.

In 2001, Fox had Planet of the Apes and Disney had Pearl Harbor. The Apes did around $180 million domestic and Pearl just under $200m. Apes barely broke even in DVD and Pearl Harbor was saved by international box office with another $250m… but just barely. It, too, needed Home Entertainment to get out of the red.

(Ed Note: 5/6/08: The graph above was edited to reflect a $20 million mistake on the Pearl Harbor domestic gross.)

Sony’s billion dollar summer of 2002 – Spider-Man was a cash cow. But Men in Black II carried such a weighty burden of gross point players and an expensive pricetag that $450 million worldwide didn’t come close to making it profitable. Stuart Little II was so expensive that when it didn’t hit, it drained cash from the company. And Revolution Studio’s heavily hyped xXx managed only $277 worldwide… which left it gasping for every ancillary dime to hover near breakeven.

2003 - Terminator 3, Bad Boys 2, Hulk, and Charlie’s Angels 2 were all $100 million domestic grossers that were extremely expensive and/or had big gross players and may or may not have hit black.

2006 – Warner Bros became the poster child for avoiding trouble by selling off the costs of production to funding organizations. Superman Returns lost over $50 million… but not for Warner Bros. They sold off half the huge production budget then collected their distribution fees and marketing fees before any money went back to production, covering their part of the loss. The sold off at least half of Poseidon. The also covered their butts via Legendary, in the cases of Lady In The Water, The Ant Bully, and Beerfest.

You might remember that it was only a few years ago when Sherry Lansing and financial architect Jon Dolgen were getting creamed in the media for not risking enough, finding financial partners on pretty much every single movie they made for Paramount.

That complaint could emerge again this summer, as their four biggest likely grossers this summer are all deals that will not be terribly profitable for the studio.

First up is Iron Man. Marvel stock rose almost 10% today. Paramount’s part of the split Viacom stock? Down 2.6%.

Why? Because Marvel funded the film and Paramount will make no profit except for a distribution fee.

Indiana Jones? Funded by Paramount, but to get the movie made, they gave away 87.5% of the movie to Lucas/Spielberg/Ford after breakeven. So if the film makes $500 million worldwide, no one makes anything, except for Paramount’s and the producers’ overhead costs. But if the film makes $1 billion worldwide, Paramount will make about $70 million, while L/S/F takes home over $450 million. And this is before DVD and other ancillaries.

Kung Fu Panda is DreamWorks Animation. Paramount has a 10% distribution fee (which they paid to get) coming to them… and that’s it. So if the film matches a movie like Madagascar and does $500 million worldwide? $50 million to Paramount… hundreds of millions to DreamWorks animation.

And Tropic Thunder, which is one of the most dangerous of the films in play, a broad comedy with a production cost of just around $100 million, is a DreamWorks film made with Viacom money. So if this film can find profitability… which is a question mark… Ben Stiller will be eating a nice percentage of the back end. (If the film does Dodgeball business, $170 million worldwide, it is still a question mark to break even, even with DVD.)

(Graph above edited for budget and gross players, 5/6)

So… if these four films were to actually push Paramount distribution up over $2 billion in worldwide grosses for the summer, the studio is looking at around $150 million in net revenues.

$2 billion is an impressive number. Less than 10% profit on that number, which is about as good as it gets on a macro level, is not.

Success and failure in the film business is not being terribly well reported these days. The big story is, as it has been for a couple of years now, that the multinationals that own the studios are getting out of the business of funding movies. There is too much risk there, while distribution and marketing is profitable, even if the movie is a loser.

The trick is to own the movies that the studio feels are near-locks outright. This is Warners’ great success on Harry Potter. Not only does it generate a gross of at least $800 million worldwide each time, but they own the franchise, with only the author getting a big bite. That said, Warners has been selling off a lot of stuff as well. This summer’s The Dark Knight is split with Legendary.

Disney has one split, Prince Caspian and one owned film (though it’s Pixar, so there are probably some personal points in play), Wall-E.

And Sony stands to have the movie that is most profitable for any studio this summer with Hancock, which they own outright, though Will Smith and James Lassiter’s Overbrook Entertainment will eat a big piece of the gross… though not nearly as much as on Indy.

In fact, Sony has the real chance of being the most profitable studio of the summer while not being close to the top in gross. They have Hancock. They have Adam Sandler, whose box office clout and limits the company knows quite well. Step Brothers was made on a tight budget. And they have two lower budget films with a lot of potential upside in The House Bunny and Pineapple Express.

And that, in the end, is the game. Amy Pascal learned this lesson years ago. You don’t give up everything for an image success. Profits first. All else is publicity.

Posted by poland at 09:30 PM | | Comments (0)

May 06, 2002

Spider-Man Opens & Early Bourne Review

What does the estimated $114 million start for Spider-Man mean?

Why beat around the bush by writing about anything else first, even if Mike Ovitz’ exit from AMG is a bigger story in the overall framework of the industry? Of course, your never-modest correspondent might point out that the Spider-Man story is really just an extension of the ongoing insanity in this industry as covered in this column for the last couple of years in particular.

The story of this weekend is not likely to be one that lasts very long. It’s not so much a matter of Star Wars: Episode Two beating the Spider-number in two weeks. The truth is, it is really up to George Lucas and Fox to decide whether the record falls. Yes, I am saying that George Lucas can decide for himself whether he wants to have the next record-breaking opening. All he and Fox has to do is to allow enough theaters enough flexibility to show Attack of the Clones on more than 6000 actual screens, just as Sony did on this opening weekend. (The screen count/per-screen statistic is now the most abused number in box office analysis.)

Everything else that LucasFilm and Fox have done in preparation for Clones is right on target. Besides masterminding the buzz on the supposedly independent internet and newsmagazines, they have now taken the amazing step of opening the media floodgates by screening the film for the press this Tuesday, more than a week before opening night and close enough to the Spidey opening to shift the buzz a full week ahead of schedule. There have even been reports that Fox has released the embargo rules – something they have since denied. However, the fact that the alleged memo freed the press to review as of this Wednesday – the day after the press screenings – suggest that it was real… and that Fox is expecting the door to open regardless of what the rules are.

After all, what else can be expected after last week’s Time Magazine review by Jess Cagle, which misleadingly suggested that Time’s film critic, Richard Schickel, had seen and approved the picture, and the parade of internet reviews that has started appearing, as per LucasFilm’s plan (they all saw the film weeks ago). Don’t even get me started on the most clever (ab)use of Ain’t It Cool since DreamWorks used the site to beat the Gladiator drum early.

But what about Spider-Man? Oops… I already forgot about the record-shattering weekend. Spider-Man is a good movie. The most amazing part of this weekend’s record-breaker – and I know some of you will get a quizzical look on your face when you read this – is how quiet it was. Yes, there was a whole lot of cross promotion and hype. But it was nothing in comparison to the Harry Potter hype… not even close. More pointedly, I was floored by how easy it was to get into the movie this weekend. My nephew, who went to see Spidey as part of a birthday party on Sunday, was amazed by the line that snaked down the street. But it was a third the size of the lines for Episode One and a quarter the size of weekend lines for Batman. And seats were available for a 4:15 show. You’ll notice that most of the “look at these sell-out” stories are about Saturday.

Sorry, Spider-Man just isn’t one of those industry-changing franchises. Of course, it’s not X-Men either… solid but not stunning. It’s a terrific franchise. To my mind’s eye, it’s a better franchise than the Harry Potter franchise (fewer percentage players with smaller percentages for the those who exist). In some ways, it is better than the Lord of The Rings franchise (it’s not limited to three films and the sequels don’t inherently have to feel like continuations).

But it’s just not Star Wars or Indiana Jones or even a Batman. It just isn’t. The $411 million worldwide scored by Batman thirteen years ago would likely be over a billion these days. Of course,
the production and P&A costs would be treble as well.

Remember, the film whose record Spider-Man just broke, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, had a hard time passing the $300 million mark domestically after a $90 million opening weekend and no major franchise opposition (Lord of the Rings) for over a month. And while Lord of the Rings opened with a little better than half the number that Potter did, their final domestic tally will be separated by less than $10 million total.

Titanic, the highest domestic and worldwide grosser of all time, opened to under $29 million. And Star Wars: Episode One, which opened to less than $65 million, a number that lingers in the record books behind four separate openings from last summer (Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes, The Mummy Returns and Rush Hour 2), but still became the fourth highest grossing film domestically, the
second highest domestic grosser ever if you don’t count re-releases and the third highest grossing film of all time worldwide. We can all whine and bitch about Jar Jar Binks, but understand something… audiences did not turn their backs on The Phantom Menace and its box office was not a phenomena of a massive opening weekend. Episode One was the leggiest franchise movie since Jurassic Park hit in 1993… back when second-run houses actually made money and a film could run for over a year in first and second run.

Of course, I feel a little silly dissing Spidey just as it becomes the first film with a $100 million weekend. But it’s about perspective. Sony execs are quite smart not to start guessing, as Warner Bros. execs did, that Spider-Man could end up doing Titanic numbers. They know that a domestic haul of $350 million is more likely and that $400 million would be a stunning triumph in today’s (or any day’s) marketplace. Chasing Titanic’s $1.8 billion theatrical haul will require a true freak of movie nature. Harry Potter is now #2 all-time, coming just short of the billion-dollar mark. Think about that. The number two film of all time is more than 44 percent behind number one.

So, does Spider-Man have a legitimate shot at $1 billion worldwide? Not really.. Attack of the Clones is the only film with a legitimate shot at the billion mark this year. My bet is that the next Harry Potter movie will drop slightly and the next Lord of the Rings movie will rise slightly. If there really was
a disappointment factor on The Phantom Menace and if Attack of the Clones is really that much better, making up the $78 million that TPM was short of a billion shouldn’t be that difficult. Additionally, Clones has the advantage, as did Spidey, of a 50 cent ticket increase across much of the nation marking the start of summer. When you are talking about these numbers of tickets sold, the increase can account for $5 million to $7 million in additional gross on opening weekend and as much as $50 million in total gross numbers.

Oh yeah… Spider-Man. Look for a final number between $650 and $750 million worldwide. And there is nothing wrong with that. Anyone who writes about next weekend being a disappointment when Spider-Man slides to $52 million is an idiot. And when Attack of the Clones opens to $78 million - $97 million with Thursday included – anyone who writes about Star Wars being in trouble is also an idiot. I anticipate
that Lucas and Fox will plan a huge, but not record-chasing opening and plan on being the leggiest film of the summer, outgrossing Spider-Man by $100 million or more domestically and by $200 million or more in
foreign territories. That’s the plan I anticipate. The reality? Who knows?

Continue reading "Spider-Man Opens & Early Bourne Review" »

Posted by poland at 11:25 PM | | Comments (0)

February 01, 1998

First February Weekend Review

The seventh week of Titanic has come and gone and there's not an iceberg in sight. Blues Brothers 2000 and The Replacement Killers seem as likely to pass the $20 million mark next weekend as Titanic is of dropping below it. That is, not very likely. Great Expectations' opening was just OK, with a reported $9.9 million. Word-of-mouth won't be great either. Spice World only dropped two spots to fourth with $7 million. I can't find anyone willing to say a nice word about the girls, but their film must be considered a success. If you were worried about which new action film you wanted to see less, America votes for (or is that against?) Deep Rising, buying $4.6 million in tickets compared to $5.8 million for Desperate Measures.

MILESTONES: Titanic passed the $300 million mark, causing industry pundits to project that it will likely to become the highest grossing film ever. One girl here in Hollywood has already made her 45th voyage on Titanic and she told the theater staff as she entered this Sunday, "I'm just getting started."

MILLSTONES: Deceiver, second film by the much-hyped Pate Brothers, was in limited release this weekend. Two critics appearing on NPR showed the ultimate enthusiasm for the film, pronouncing that it will prove to be one of the very worst films of 1998.

JUST WONDERING: If you asked me what I thought of Great Expectations and I told you that it was really visually beautiful, would that be like describing someone that I want you to date blindly as "really interesting with a good sense of humor?"

READER OF THE DAY: "Half Baked is the worst I have ever seen, worse than any Jim Carrey movie, worse than sitting alone and being made to eat crap. I want someone to tell me that they actually enjoyed this movie. I am EMBARASSED that I even saw it." -- Nancy C.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 30, 1998

A Weekend Review

This is garbage dump weekend for the first quarter of 1998. Fox may do well with Great Expectations due to our, well, great expectations of Gwyneth, Ethan and Bob. And damn it looks good! But the studio's late move away from an Oscar qualifying release date should serve as a loud warning. Lower your expectations. (That said, I'll be ponying up my $7.50 sometime this weekend). Disney is spending lots o' cash trying to convince someone -- anyone -- that Deep Rising is this year's Anaconda. That squid won't hunt. And the long in-the-can Desperate Measures is finally being released. I can smell the write-off as I write this. All three of these films could easily open over $7 million, with GE in the lead. Next week, the bottom drops out.

THE 800 POUND MONKEY: Titanic will continue to sail, getting closer to the $20 million weekend horizon, but don't hold your breath. It won't help. The water's really, really cold.

THE 666 POUND GIRL GROUP: Shake it down the charts. The Girls of Spice should fall by 40 percent or so as many prospective audience members lose interest after growing one week older. Good Will Hunting and As Good As It Gets should leapfrog the girls. Hold on. Can you smell a sequel?!

NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK: The Pate Brothers are blazing hot despite making just one film. They are one of those wacky Hollywood phenomena which has made brothers who write and direct, like The Coens and Bound's Wachowski Brothers fashionable as hell. This week, find out if they're for real or just The Brothers of The Week when their Deceiver hits theaters.

MILESTONES: Guess who's gonna pass the $300 million mark this weekend?

MILLSTONES: Last weekend, The Postman averaged $227 per screen. That's about four people attending each screening. Can it get worse?

TWO BAD MOVIES EQUAL: Spice World and Star Kid = Spice Kids: The Movie. Synopsis: Remember Muppet Babies? Follow the animated antics of Pee-Pee Spice, Baby Fat Spice, Suckie Spice, Droopy Spice (the one with the unfashionable diaper) and BaBaBaBaBaBaBa Spice as they spend every waking minute trying to get some attention.

READER OF THE DAY: Aaron S. predicts: Titanic $26m, Good Will Hunting $9m, Great Expectations $7.5m, As Good As It Gets $6m, Spice World $5.5m, Desperate Measures $5.5m, Deep Rising $4.8m, Wag The Dog $4.6m, Fallen $3m, Hard Rain $2.7m, Half Baked $2.3m.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 26, 1998

Weekend Review and Milestones

Were there movies out there this weekend? Between the Super Bowl and Suborning Bill, movies seemed like a low priority for a change. Titanic made its $25 million. The Spice Girls managed to snap up $11 million (if anyone out there knows why, please e-mail me). The Good movies (Will Hunting and As it Gets) did good in third and fourth. Fallen fell in a pretty standard way. The only newcomer to the Top Ten was Phantoms with a weak $3.1 million open.

MILESTONES: Titanic passed Jaws' $260 million domestic gross to become the 10th most popular film of all time. Jaws, who had to turn down a cameo in the film due to rust, refused to comment. But a spokesperson for the mechanical shark rambled on about the box office to production cost ratio and mentioned that Quentin Tarantino had recently visited Jaws on the Universal Studio tour and they were hoping to have "good news" about a comeback in the near future.

MILLSTONES: President Clinton was getting wagged so hard by the tale of him being a dog that it could snap his presidency. New Line has decided not to capitalize on the current problems in the White House, but Iraq has. Saddam Hussein is claiming that he is now expecting an American assault on Iraq as a Clinton distraction.

ABOVE THE FRAY: Ben Affleck, Phantoms most marketable co-star and Golden Globe award-winner for co-scripting Miramax's Good Will Hunting, was not out on the talk circuit pushing his newer film. Given that Phantoms is from Miramax division Dimension, that might be internal strategy to keep Affleck pure for Academy consideration. Or Ben's head might be too big to talk sci-fi. Only his publicist knows for sure.

READER QUOTE OF THE DAY: From Marc A, "I don't doubt Titanic's doing well, but these numbers seem impossible! I'm waiting to hear that Titanic is healing the sick this weekend."

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 20, 1998

Titanic In Iceland

It was a long, long weekend. Long enough for Titanic to rack up another $35 million. Fallen beat out Hard Rain, $10.4 million to $8.3 million, and Half Baked did better than expected with $8 million over the four days (You can just imagine how much popcorn they sold). Meanwhile, Gudmundur Breidfjord e-mailed me this perspective on Titanic's box office. "If you don't believe your domestic box office, what about Iceland? (Don't laugh) Here in this tiny island in the north, Titanic opened on Jan 1 and on the first five days on three screen in three theaters, Titanic took in $135,000! (That is close to 10 million Icelandic kroners!) Mind you, Iceland is a nation of only 260,000 people and has only seven movie theaters with total of 28 screens. This number is UNBELIVABLE! Snow or no snow! Rain or no rain! They will come."

The family of William Murdoch, the Titanic watch commander who is shown committing suicide in the film, is ticked off. His nephew, Scott Murdoch, now 80 years old, says that the moment is "completely fictional," insisting that his uncle "went down with the ship after showing great heroism." No lawsuit seems to be on the horizon. No such luck for Steven Spielberg, who can't seem to avoid litigation these days. The court is allowing Stephen Kessler to go to trial with claims that Twister was ripped off from his script, Catch The Wind. Kessler, who is based in St. Louis, says that he delivered his script to companies that represent Spielberg and writer Michael Chrichton. Sounds more like Kessler is passing the wind.

Not nearly as concerned about the bottom line, Sir Alec Guinness ( a.k.a. Obi-wan Kenobi) tells a story in his upcoming autobiography about meeting a child who claimed to have seen Star Wars over 100 times. Guinness told the child to stop seeing the movie so forcefully that the child burst into tears. "I just hope the lad," Guinness writes, "now in his thirties, is not living in a fantasy world of secondhand, childish banalities." Nope. He'll have to wait until Memorial Day 1999, when the Star Wars prequel hits theaters.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 16, 1998

A Weekend Preview

Things should stabilize at the box office this weekend. Given its history, I expect Titanic to drop a whopping 50 cents to $28,716,309.50. (Or let's say another 15 percent to $24.4 million) That's as close as I'll get to a rant on the subject, but e-mail me your guess at this weekend's Titanic box office figure and I'll print up to 150 words on Titanic or any other subject that pushes your hot button in Monday's column. Please include an estimated per screen average for tie-breaking purposes. (Last weekend it was $10,458.)

It's been over a month since a good chiller-thriller hit screens, so I'm betting that Denzel's Trip To Creepsville a.k.a. Fallen can pull in about $12 million to take second place. In its second weekend of wide release, look for a minimal drop from Good Will Hunting, say 10 percent, for $9.2 million and third place. Things stay good for As Good As It Gets, dropping about 20 percent to $7.2 million. In fifth, the dark horse for Best Picture (if Titanic and L.A. Confidential sink one another), Wag the Dog should be steady in its second wide week with a 15 percent drop for $6.6 million.

Hard Rain should be the first (and only) bad news for Paramount to be caused by Titanic. They need as many screens as they can get for a strong opening before word gets out that Christian Slater is safer in jail than amongst people who paid $8.00 for this flick. Their other water movie will remain the biggest screen hog in the land, leaving Hard Rain $6.5 million and sixth place. In seventh, a big hit lost behind the iceberg, Tomorrow Never Dies should drop about 30 percent to $5.3 million, but still become the biggest domestic grossing Bond film in history, passing Goldeneye's $107 million. The films in eighth and ninth place both involve incense burning. Kundun will go wide to the spiritual tune of about $5 million. Half-Baked should down about $4.7 in munchies. And in tenth, Mouse Hunt should hunt down another $3.2 million. Off the charts, but over $2 million, look for Firestorm, Jackie Brown, a re-release of The Full Monty, Scream 2, Star Kid and Amistad.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 14, 1998

Titanic Box Office

Lots of e-mail over my ongoing questioning of Titanic's box office reporting. It is mostly made up of people who are ticked off at me. Like this one from Lars: "If you headed over to you local multiplex showing Titanic, maybe then you would finally "get" it. I saw Titanic Saturday at a local theater, and all of Saturday was sold out at 3pm. The same with other theaters in my area. So stop hinting about your Titanic box-office conspiracy (which you have done now for the last three weeks) and actually go out to talk to theater managers showing Titanic, and they will tell you. It's a phenomenon."

Similar sentiments form Dimitri, who offers, "I respect you, but I think you're out of touch with the audience's wavelength on this one. It's like on week two, where you started insinuating a Scream 2 miscalculation would come to play, which never happened. And now that you've gone on record as having disliked it in the end, you seem to have a personal investment in seeing it fail or otherwise have something stink up a genuine phenomenon."

Gilbert, however, thinks I'm being a little too kind: "I totally agree with your point about Titanic's box office numbers. It just seems impossible!! (Last weekend) there was hard rain in L.A and a snow storm in N.Y and don't even talk about the "holiday factor." Those figures are hard to believe."

My response? This is no vendetta. I do like this movie. I just don't love it. My issues with the box office figures are historical. The Lost World's $90 million opening weekend is nothing compared to Titanic's record four consecutive weeks over $20 million, headed (at its current rate) to at least six consecutive weeks, despite many less showings each weekend than any comparable box office smash. In each of its four weekends, the film has added a new quirk to box office history. First, it went up in its second week. In week three, it made at least $8 million every weekday. This week, it experienced no Friday drop-off, despite having half the day's shows during business hours in a non-holiday week. Next week, who knows? I can't imagine any more surprises. So, this should be the end of my Titanic rant as you know it. Thanks for the letters and keep them coming, for better or for worse.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 12, 1998

Weekend Review

Titanic continues to post unbelievable
numbers, reporting another $29.2 million,
dropping just 9 percent, even less than
last weekend despite losing the
advantage of work-free holiday
audiences for the early Friday and late
Sunday shows. Meanwhile, the weekday
numbers have dropped by about 60
percent. But Friday would have to be off
by less than 20 percent for these numbers
to be accurate. Something smells worse
than an 84-year-old sketch to me. I just
don't get it.

Good Will Hunting proved to be a
strong newcomer as it expanded into Top
Ten Land, taking second place with
$10.3 million. As Good As It Gets
dropped a very reasonable 24 percent in
its third week. And the Hoffman/DeNiro
combo grabbed a slightly disappointing
$8.2 million for Wag the Dog's first
wide weekend. And Bond suffered a 45
percent loss, but did pass the $100
million mark.

In the bottom of the order, Mouse Hunt
dropped a decent 41 percent, but still
became the DreamWorks box office
champ. Firestorm opened in sixth with
$4 million, probably in its first and last
appearance in the Top Ten. Jackie
Brown takes eighth with $3.8 million to
quietly pass the $30 million mark.
Scream 2 was the biggest dropper,
losing 50 percent to take ninth place with
$3.7 million. And Amistad rode into
tenth with just $2.7 million and may be
riding out of Oscar contention barring an
awfully big push coming from
somewhere. To date, DreamWorks has
proven incapable of that kind of push.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 09, 1998

Non-Holiday Box Office

The first non-holiday weekend of the new year and not much to go on.The only new wide release is Fox's forest fire actioner, Firestorm,starring the hugely popular (snicker, snicker) Howie Long. Last year,three pictures debuted in this slot. The Relic opened OK, followed by a weak Jackie Chan's First Strike and a disastrousTurbulence. My guess is that Firestorm will do a Liotta-like $4.5million for seventh place. The unsinkable Titanic will certainly maintain first place. The weekday numbers are off, with the holiday over, by about 60 percent, but I expect that the Fri-Sat cume should drop only about 15 percent because kids are back in school and another 7.5 percent or so because of reduced attendance on Friday and late Sunday. That means about $25.8 million.
As Good As It Gets seems to be in the passing lane, rushing past a remote-controlled Tomorrow Never Dies for second place with a 30 percent drop to about $8.6 million. Bond drops 40 percent to third with $8.3 million to pass the $100 million mark domestically. Mouse Hunt will take theDream Works box office crown, dipping about 35 percent to add $5.5 million cheese balls for fourth. Scream 2 should battle Jackie Brown for thefifth spot. Both look like 34 percent droppers, but will the long-term wear onS2 be worse than the ennui that seems to surround T3 (that's Tarantino3). Both should hang out around $47.7 million. Firestorm will follow.Amistad should drop one spot to eighth with about $3.1 million. And Mr.Magoo should be tangling with Flubber for ninth and tenth with about$2.6 million each. The third of the Disney idiot trilogy, An AmericanWerewolf In CGI, should drop below the Mendoza line.

Reader Timothy Kooney sent us this over the holidays, responding to my Worst of 1997 list. It's edited for space.

"Lost World should have ranked worst of the worst with a Surgeon General's warning. This movie had it all: hack writing, bad acting, half-dimensional characters,B-movie suspense, inconsistent science, fractured plot,lead-pipe-to-the-head "humor"/irony and more. The dinosaurs were the most life-like creatures on the screen."

TK adds about Jeff Goldblum:
"After Lost World, I think even the Prince of Darkness will be ready to get this babbling idiot off the screen. I don't remember my Dante, is there a circle of hell for bad acting?"

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

January 05, 1998

WEEKEND REVIEW

Ah, a fresh look at a weekend's box office. Seems like ages since I got to gorge on grosses. In the top slot, Titanic steams ahead with numbers that are still unbelievable. Titanic reported its biggest single day to date with $12.7 million this Saturday. Accomplished in its third week with no increase in screens. Titanic reported a total of another $32.2million (down just 9 percent from last week) for a grand total of $156.4million in its first 17 days of release. Paramount's numbers on this picture continue to defy all recent box office points of reference and have to be seen as an even more shocking display than The Lost World's$90 million opening weekend.

Lost in the wake of the Big Boat is the new Bond, Tomorrow Never Dies,which, after a $14.1 million weekend, should pass the $100 million mark late in the week. As Good As It Gets is holding steady, dropping just two percent to add $12.3 million to its total. In fourth place is Mouse Hunt,which, since its soft $6 million opening, has picked up ($8.7 millionthis weekend) with good word of mouth and has blown past Amistad ($27million to date) to become DreamWorks' first real hit, passing the $40million mark this weekend and soon to put The Peacemaker's $41 milliontotal in its rearview mirror. My belated apologies to Alex for buying into negative pre-release buzz. This is a very dark, very funny movie.Too bad DreamWorks mismarketed it so badly. DreamWorks sold it as akids film and discounted the adults who grew up loving "Tom and Jerry."They'll find it on cable.

Of the rest of the Top Ten, there's Scream 2 in fifth place with $8million, heading toward final numbers a little better than theoriginal. More importantly (at least for Miramax), if the sequel canhit $120 million, it should match the original's enormousprofitability. J<strong>ackie Brown remains slow, adding another $7.7 millionfor sixth. The film's $14 million budget assures profitability andmaybe the quiet results will allow Tarantino to work without thepressure of being the culture-maker that Pulp Fiction made him. Disney owned slots eight to 10 with a total of $14.5 million for An American Werewolf In Paris, Mr. Magoo and Flubber. Hey, it's better than The Postman!

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

December 29, 1997

All About Titanic

OK, today and tomorrow I'll be catching up on the news of the biz before firing out my "Best Of" 1997. Wednesday will be The Ten Biggest Entertainment Stories of 97. Thursday will be my personal Top Ten. Friday, the Ten Movies That I Just Didn't Get. And the weekend edition will offer up my Worst of 1997. Check it out.

The story at the box office is Titanic, Titanic, Titanic.The box office numbers are unbelievable. So much so that I don't believe them. After opening last weekend, reporting that almost every seat was sold at most theaters, Titanic's three-day total for this weekend rose $7 million to $35.6 million. That's a 25 percent rise in business. And I say "Bull****." Maybe the holiday weekend could account for a 10 percent rise in the numbers (to $31.4 million), but a 25 percent rise would require an additional 1,000 screens or so. And I doubt that Titanic added that many screens in this crowded marketplace. Keep in mind that there's almost nobody in Los Angeles this week -- reporters or execs -- to bitch and moan about these bizarre Titanic figures. And about Miramax's revision of their Scream 2 opening figures (down by 15 percent) without anyone in the press noticing the "mistake" before it was announced. Another "mistake" wouldn't be surprising.

Even if Titanic added 350 screens to reach 3,000 this weekend, the per screen average would be over $13,000. Do you know how many wide-release films, other than Titanic, did over $13,000 a screen on any weekend in 1997? Four: The Lost World, Men In Black, Batman and Robin and Star Wars. And all four did it in their first weekend, with at least 25 percent more showings over the three days. You know how many pulled it off in their second weekend? None. Excuse me. One. Titanic. If you believe that.

The funny thing is, I liked the movie as I watched it in the theater. I winced occasionally, but I enjoyed it. But actually thinking about the film after seeing it creates a kind of unavoidable contempt by way of familiarity. For a review that comes close to my complaints, check out the review from the always interesting Manohla Dargis. She and I don't always agree, but this time we are in lockstep.

Posted by Archive at 12:00 AM |

September 22, 1997

Another By-the-Book Weekend at the Box Office

In & Out was all in, doing $15.3 million and besting last weekend's $14 million opening for The Game, whose second weekend brought a reasonable 36% drop, banking another $9.2 million to take second place. L.A. Confidential, which opened on only 769 screens vs. Out's 1,992, was expected to be the per-screen average winner, but the big-city butch cops got beaten by the small town queens, $7681 to $7152. A good number for L.A.C. (totaling $5.5 million for the fourth slot), but not as OUTstanding as expected. Maybe the platformed release pattern may not have been the best choice.

In the rest of the B.O. news, A Thousand Acres took a hit to its overall Oscar potential, with only $3 million cropping up to take the fifth spot with a $2,483 per-screen average. That's $300 less per screen than Wishmaster (number three with a $6.5 million total) conjured up. The fact that, despite these numbers, Lange and Pfeiffer are still very real candidates for Oscar gold proves just how few great women's roles there are out there. And even worse, the numbers show why there are more films made featuring serial killers than there are about thinking women.

Trimark Pictures has bought the rights to Wayne Wang's next flick, Chinese Box. The question is, "Why?" Wang, the director of Miramax's successful double-bill Smoke/Blue In The Face and Disney's The Joy Luck Club, screened his Jeremy Irons-starring arthouse film at the Venice and Toronto film festivals before settling in with Trimark, the company that brought us Carrot Top in Chairman Of The Board and Angie Everhart taking her clothes off -- does she do anything else? -- in the 9 1/2 Weeks sequel. Another case of Art For Crap's Sake.

In celebrity news, tragedy hit Yaphet Kotto when the limo he was riding in broke its rear axle, lost its right rear wheel, ran up an embankment, and burst into flames. No one was physically hurt, but in a $500,000 lawsuit, Kotto claims "serious bodily injury, emotional trauma, pain and suffering, and economic loss." And worse -- so much worse -- Kotto "has not been able to get back in a limo since that time." Please divert all donations to the Princess Diana or Mother Teresa Trusts to the Caddy For Kotto Fund. We can cure limowreckaphobia in our time.

E-Mail Dave with the issues that get your button hot!

Posted by THB Archive at 06:47 PM |

September 15, 1997

LA Confidential Emerges as Strong Oscar Contender

It was no contest as The Game won the weekend box office race. It was the only real contestant. With over $14 million at the box office, it did more than four times as much as G.I. Jane, yet fitting its labyrinthine plot, The Game disappointed. It was Douglas' best opening since Basic Instinct's $15.1 million, but movies had a longer theatrical life back then. It was the second best September opening ever, after last year's The First Wives Club, but Goldie, Bette and Diane did $18.9 million, 35 percent more than The Game. Ultimately, The First Wives Club hit $100 million. The Game won't come close. Especially with L.A. Confidential coming in hot on its tail.

Speaking of L.A. Confidential, the first of this year's serious Academy Awards contenders, it has three remarkable features. First, with an Oscar in hand, Kevin Spacey now gets top billing for playing the same kind of small character part he played when he was billed fourth. Second, two Australians, who first became famous for their work as gay men -- Guy Pierce in Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, and Russell Crowe in The Sum Of Us -- are now going to be known as hard-bitten L.A. detectives from the '50s. And third, Kim Basinger really can act. The degree of amazement may not be in the order listed.

Sony's promoting Gattaca by running realistic print ads for genetic engineering with a small Sony tag on the bottom. Those interested are instructed to call 1-888-4-BEST-DNA. Don't dial quite yet. The number wasn't working as of posting time. Seems that there has been some controversy about the ads being too real and somehow insulting those of us who haven't been genetically engineered. For my two cents, I wouldn't put my child's DNA in the hands of a company that couldn't come up with a better name for a movie than Gattaca.

E-Mail Dave with the issues that get your button hot!

Posted by THB Archive at 08:13 PM | | Comments (0)