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December 12, 1997

Is it Irony or is it Memorex?

The irony part is that I Know What You Did Last Summer will be leaving the Top Ten for the last time just as Scream 2 (the Memorex part) comes into the number one slot that Kevin Williamson and his "summer job" (IKWYDLS) held for so many weeks. This is one sequel that should have a lot more opening bite than the original. Look for a massive $33 million weekend. Amistad has very little negative buzz, but still carries the very real limitations of being a lengthy historical drama, Spielberg or no Spielberg. And though the plagiarism lawsuit shouldn't discourage moviegoers, it clearly knocked the DreamWorks media campaign off center. Hard to imagine more than $15 million for the film this weekend.

For Richer or Poorer and Home Alone 3 are kinda the same movie for two different age groups. Who knows what will happen? Home Alone 2 opened big despite plenty of negative buzz, as did Jungle 2 Jungle on Tim Allen's appeal. I think both films will do somewhere between $9 million and $12 million, but that's as far as I'm willing to stick my neck out here. (If either is going to stiff, I'd bet on HA 3.) Brushing up against these two should be the only other comedy on the list, Flubber, which should take fifth with a 40 percent drop to $6.8 million.

The Rainmaker should fall softly (35 percent) to fifth with $3.7 million, passing Alien: Resurrection, which should drop 50 percent for a sixth-place, $3.3 million weekend. (In last week's final tally, Alien 4 did $6.66 million -- more demonic irony!) Anastasia should forget another 40 percent for $3.1 million and seventh. The Jackal will bite off another $2.4 million for a 40 percent drop off and eighth. Warner Bros. fired its marketing president, misplacing the blame for misses like Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil. Marketing was good. Distribution plans were evil. Midnight will take ninth place with $1.9 million, heading for a total under $25 million and no Oscars. And Mortal Kombat: Artistic Annihilation will grab tenth with $1.3 million.

Lots of room for opinions with this week's openings (read: David could really be wrong!) Join the growing crowd of box office guessers by e-mail.

Posted by THB Archive at 09:58 PM |

December 05, 1997

Box Office - Nowhere But Down

This weekend the box office is all trussed up like a prize turkey with no place to go but down. There are no new wide releases due this week. Everyone was scared off of the date by Flubber and Alien: Resurrection. Oops! Scream 2 should do stellar numbers next week, but could have had clear sailing for two weeks, pushing the new Alien out of the ship early. Oh, well. Soft word-of-mouth should drop the three-day weekend total for Flubber by 40 percent with $16 million, still enough to take first. Alien: Resurrection should keep the two spot, despite what I'm guessing will be a steep 50 percent drop to take in $8.2 million. As stable as it is slow (though I liked the film), The Rainmaker should drop about 25 percent, still enough to pass Anastasia for third with $8 million. Thus, Anastasia, dropping a reasonable 35 percent, should be in fourth with $7.7 million.

The Jackal is likely to be on the other side of a wide b.o. gap, dropping to fifth with a 40 percent drop to $4.5 million. Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil should skulk about with a 25 percent drop to $4 million for a sixth place finish and no hope of surviving the mid-December onslaught of serious films. Mortal Kombat: Annihilation should hit the skids to the tune of 60 percent, kicking up another $2.7 million for seventh. The bottom four of the Top Ten gets the benefit of Disney's withdraw of The Little Mermaid. Her disappearance (authorities are questioning Roman Polanski) allows Bean to take eighth with a 50 percent drop to $1.5 million. And Starship Troopers moves up a notch to ninth with another 50 percent drop to $1.4 million.

The Ten Spot will likely offer a three way tie, with I Know What You Did Last Summer (dropping 35 percent), Eve's Bayou (dropping just 20 percent) and The Wings of The Dove (suffering its first drop with 15 percent) all camping out around the $1.2 million mark.

Will Alien: Resurrection rise from the dead box office week to take top spot? Will Flubber flub its box office break and drown under The Rainmaker? E-mail me what you think.


Posted by THB Archive at 07:04 PM |

November 26, 1997

Thanksgiving Weekend

Last Thanksgiving, 101 Dalmations won the five-day weekend with $33.5 million. I expect Alien: Resurrection to blow that number out of the water with over $45 million to win the Turkey Day Parade. Combine that with my predicted $20 million take for Anastasia's second weekend (for third place) and you'll find Fox dancing in a pool of acid saliva. Of course, their steaming cheer won't worry Disney, who are looking at a $35 million long weekend for Flubber, with Robin Williams bouncing into second place.

The rest of the Top Ten is all repeat business. Remember that these are five-day estimates. Look for Mortal Kombat: Annihilation to be one of the few films to drop in overall gross despite the additional two days ($16 million for fourth). The Rainmaker should do well, with positive, though not overwhelming buzz, acquiting itself to the tune of $13 million and fifth place. The Jackal looks to be another flick eaten by an Alien, losing a million to shoot at a $8 million weekend for sixth. The Little Mermaid should swim to another $7 million in its final weekend of competition, dropping to seventh. Midnight In The Garden Of Good And Evil may be doing great per-screen, but it won't be adding screens, so $7 million for eighth is about a much as Clint can make. And look for Bean to take ninth with about $5 million.

And now for those of you who are taking the weekend off from school, a math problem. If Starship Trooper has dropped 50 percent every week since its release, but the five-day weekend should increase box office by about 60 percent, then how much will Starship Troopers gross? Tah dah! Four million dollars for tenth place, rounding out the Top Ten in its final appearance. Enjoy the movies, everyone!

E-mail your predictions to me early so I can have some crow to go with my turkey on Thanksgiving night.

Posted by THB Archive at 09:03 AM |

November 21, 1997

It's Time for Anastasia to Put Up or Shut Up

All the whining about Disney means nothing. This weekend is wide open without another truly major release in it's way. Next week, Alien Ressurection and Flubber blow, bite and bounce into theaters. So, this is it! That said, I think that Fox's animated Meg Ryan will do about what last year's real Meg release, Courage Under Fire did: $14 million for first place. Last week, the big dropper was Starship Troopers with a 55 percent plunge. This week, The Jackal should combine bad word-of-mouth with an R-rating to lose 40 percent and fall to a $9.1 million second place finish. And despite all better judgment, Mortal Kombat: Annihilation should open in third with about $9 million.

My Butt-Biter-Of-The-Week could be The Rainmaker, which I'm projecting at $7 million in fourth, even though it could do much worse. I love Coppola and even I'm not that anxious to see it. The second and last week of The Little Mermaid should survive Anastasia to the tune of a 30 percent drop into fifth with $6.9 million. The fall of Starship Troopers should slow to about 35 percent with $6.5 million for sixth.

The last of our newbies is Clint Eastwood's Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, which may suffer the same box office fate as L.A. Confidential, though the buzz isn't as good. Warner Bros. choice to start with 800 screens should limit the box office to a seventh place finish with about $5.6 million or worse. Bean isn't exactly the cultural phenomena here that it's been overseas, but it should pass the $40 million mark with another $5.3 million for eighth. And in ninth and tenth, the evil twins of fall, The Devil's Advocate and I Know What You Did Last Summer, should both hover around the $2.5 million mark.

Master Wok has already sent in his box office take. He likes Anastasia, Mortal Kombat and The Jackal to lead things. E-mail me your predictions now!

Posted by THB Archive at 09:51 AM |

November 14, 1997

Predicting the Box Office Gets Tough

This weekend is the hardest I've had to predict in quite a long time. Why? Big stars, low want-to-see. The Jackal features Bruce Willis and Richard Gere, but there's less buzz around than in a decaf latte. Disney hasn't had big results from its re-releases since they became so video friendly, but The Little Mermaid may be special. Or not. And Bill Murray is far from a guaranteed opener in a film that isn't as easily defined as his last hit, Groundhog Day.

So here's my take. Starship Troopers drops just 20 percent to $17.6 million, taking first for a second week. The Jackal opens with a nice, but not overwhelming $14 million for second. The Little Mermaid surfs to a third place finish with about $12 million. Bean flatulates to the tune of $9.6 million, dropping 25 percent for fourth. Bill Murray's The Man Who Knew Too Little will stay undercover with a soft $8.5 million for fifth.

The Second Five should all be repeat visitors, with New Line's One Night Stand opening at only 700 screens. I Know What You Did Last Summer slices another $4.2 million -- a 35 percent drop -- for sixth. Also dropping about 35 percent should be The Devil's Advocate ($3.3 million for seventh) and Red Corner ($3.2 million in eighth). Mad City should make its second and last Top Ten appearance in ninth with a 25 percent drop to $3.5 million. And Hot Button fave Boogie Nights should dance into 10th with a 20 percent drop to $3.1 million. Trailing closely should be surprise hit Eve's Bayou with about $2.6 million.

And make sure to go to the movies this weekend, because the holiday onslaught will start burying you next week with Clint Eastwood's Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil, Anastasia, Mortal Kombat: Annihilation and Francis Ford Coppola's Grisham entry, The Rainmaker. And your Thanksgiving plans will probably include Flubber or Alien Resurrection or both.

Don't think I've pegged this weekend's results? Let's see your Top Ten. If you beat me you will ... "Win David Poland's Money!" Well, no, but I might tell our readers about it.

Posted by THB Archive at 09:56 PM |

November 07, 1997

The Big Noise Starts this Weekend with Starship Troopers

Twenty-five million is my estimate. A big number, but doable. Even surpassable. With all the people going to genre movies (see slots three, five and seven), the stage is set for this one, by far the biggest, brashest entry in the category since Men In Black last July. There are some worries about Bean stealing some of Troopers' opening thunder, but I see these as separate audiences. I think Bean will open around $10 million, with longer legs than Troopers, but a far less explosive impact.

The numbers amongst the holdovers should make them look a bit like leftovers. With 30 percent drops, look for I Know What You Did Last Summer to pass the $50 million mark with $6.6 million, Red Corner to take fourth with $5.2 million, and The Devil's Advocate to hit fifth, also with about $5.2 million.

Boogie Nights should drop modestly (gambling on you guys again), about 20 percent to $3.7 million for sixth place. Seven Years In Tibet finally hits the seventh slot with a 30 percent drop to $2.3 million. Fairy Tale: A Running Gag should drop about 25 percent to $2.2 million for eighth spot. Kiss The Girls may finally get slashed with a 40 percent drop to $2.1 million for ninth. And Gattaca may actually pass the magical $10 million mark adding another $1.6 million to it's take for tenth.

Think you have a clearer view of the future? E-mail me.


Posted by THB Archive at 09:10 PM |

November 03, 1997

Boogie Nights Opens at Number Four

Ouch! I know you can't see it in my photos, but I am bleeding profusely from the nose after getting tagged hard by Boogie Nights' number four opening with just $5.1 million! I guess Middle America wasn't ready for a film about porn that didn't include porn. And I wish I could blame it on New Line being a small studio, but their magnificent Money Talks opened with $10.65 million just weeks ago! Argh! The one salvation here is that the picture should end up doing so little business (my guess: under $30 million total domestic) that if New Line plays its cards right, it could become the Oscars' "Little Movie That Could" for 1997.

Meanwhile, the unstoppable slasher films continue to do big box office. I Know What You Did Last Summer camped out at number one for the third week, dropping just 20 percent to $10 million. Devil's Advocate, where Al Pacino slashes the scenery with his tongue before chewing it up real good, dropped a modest 25 percent to summon another $7.6 million for third place. And Kiss The Girls slashed-n-smooched its way to fifth place with another $3.6 million, dropping just 30 percent in week five.

Another surprise, though not as unpleasant, was the success of Red Corner. I guess the China visit worked for the film -- which got roundly panned by the critics -- rather than against it. Pretty Man Richard Gere got a liberal $8.3 million to take second place. Also, Switchback, Paramount's quiet entry into the All Hallows Eve thriller market, stayed quieter than I thought it might, pulling in just $3 million for seventh place.

The rest of the Top Ten is made up of holdovers, all of which I came pretty close to predicting. Big deal! I'm already bleeding. Anyway, Brad was glad that Seven Years in Tibet took in another $3.4 million in its fourth week for sixth place. Fairy Tale: A Forgotten Release, grabbed another $2.9 million while the grabbing was good for eighth. Gattaca ran out of puns -- $2.7 million for ninth. And In & Out took tenth with $1.8 million.

Check out what my predictions were on Friday. Email is your way of showing me you feel my pain. Or maybe you just want to rub it in.


Posted by THB Archive at 08:51 PM |

October 31, 1997

BOO-gie Nights is Here!

(Happy Halloween, kids!) Go now, before you get distracted by Starship Troopers and The Little Mermaid, 'cause it's gonna happen. I wish that I could say that Paul Thomas Anderson's feel-good, feel-all epic will take Number One with $20 million, but $10 - $11 million seems a lot more likely. (We'll have to wait for Tarantino's Jackie Brown to get a $20 million weekend out of a '70s flick).

The rest of the line-up should be pretty familiar by now, despite two other wide openings. IKWYDLS (I'm tired of all those words!), the summer slasher, should pass the $40 million mark with another $8.75 million this weekend. Al & Keanu look to scare up another $7.66 million in The Devil's Advocate. Last week, there was a $5 million gap between Devil's second place showing and Kiss The Girls's third place finish. This week, it should be about $4.3 million, with Morgan Freeman kissing $3.34 million for fifth, leaving a gaping hole for Paramount's grossly undersold Switchback to take fourth place with around $5 million.

All the talk about China may hurt Seven Years in Tibet by way of saturation, but look for a sixth place finish with a 30 percent drop-off to about $3.3 million. Richard Gere should be back-to-back with Brad with Red Corner, which is good for copy and bad for business. It's an oppressive seventh place open with about $3 million. Gattaca stays flat-aca with a 35 percent drop to about $2.8 million for eighth. Fairy Tale tails off 30 percent to $2.5 million for ninth . And In & Out is in one last time with $2.1 million, pushing the $60 million mark overall.

Send me something scary via email.

Posted by THB Archive at 04:11 PM |

October 24, 1997

Can You Hear the Distant Thunder of the Big Fall movies?

They're getting closer. But in the meantime, Sony's giving us Gattaca and I Know What You Did Last Summer instead of Starship Troopers. Fox is giving us A Life Less Ordinary instead of Alien Resurrection. And Disney is staying out of the fray altogether until it's ready to smash the animated classic/Robin Williams 2X4 over the head of Fox's Anastasia.

Gattaca should open on top of the box office crowd with around $12 million. Sony is marketing as fast as they can, but the weird title and soft reviews are keeping the buzz from exploding. Seems like Sony sated a chunk of Gattaca's audience last weekend with its other genre movie, I Know What You Did Last Summer, which should take the standard 35 percent drop to $10.3 million for second place. The Devil's Advocate should retain its "Number One Devil As Lawyer Movie In America" title with a 30 perecent drop to $8.5 million. Then, there's a huge holdover drop, down to a likely third week showdown between Kiss the Girls and Seven Years In Tibet for fifth and sixth at around $4.2 million. Sneaking into that gap, A Life Less Ordinary should fall in love with fourth spot with around $6 million.

Fairy Tale: A True Story is a hard sell in a weak kids market, seamlessly opening in the now-gone Rocketman's seventh slot with $3 million. In & Out is heading toward the latter with about $2.6 million for eighth place. Over the lips and through the gums, look out cable, here comes Soul Food -- ninth with $2 million. And rounding out the top 10, one must acknowledge Bean, the Rowan Atkinson comedy that's already broken the $100 million mark in foreign release and domestically has only opened in Canada -- yes, Canada is part of the domestic box office -- to the tune of more than $2 million.

Finally, Boogie Nights expands to 50 screens and should pull in a little over $1.25 million before opening wide on Halloween. That's quite a costume, Marky Mark!

What are you planning to wear for Halloween? Actually, I don't care, but if you have something to say, email me.

Posted by THB Archive at 03:47 PM |

October 20, 1997

Not Many Surprises at the Weekend Box Office

At least not for me. Despite the big names (Al Pacino and Keanu Reeves) and big publicity push, The Devil's Advocate came in just an OK second, conjuring up $12.2 million. The good news is, it may be another Pacino scenery-chewing camp classic. The easy winner of the weekend was teen horror romp I Know What You Did Last Summer with a ripping $16.1 million. Despite a last-minute agreement by Sony not to abuse the "from the makers of Scream" tag, their marketing department grabbed teen attention with big ad buys and clever gimmick promos, like a two-minute "special preview" hosted by Sarah Michelle Gellar during last week's episode of her WB series, "Buffy, The Vampire Slayer." The only other wide release, Playing God, caught me once again overestimating the drawing power of non-movie star celebrities. Last week, it was Tupac. This week it's Mr. Duchovny's Doofus, which I predicted would reach fifth, but came in tenth with a weak $2 million.

The strength of the new product damaged the returning hits a little more than expected. Kiss The Girls ($7 million) and Seven Years in Tibet ($6.5 million) both dropped a little over 35 percent from last weekend. In & Out passed the $50 million mark in its fifth week, pulling in $3.9 million to become one of only two returnees in the Top 10 to drop less than 30 percent. Soul Food is now leftovers, dropping over 35 percent to $3.5 million for sixth place. Rocketman went according to plan, dropping to earth with $3 million on its way out of the Top 10. The Peacemaker is suffering nuclear fallout, dropping a substantial 44 percent to take eighth with $2.8 million. And in ninth, L.A. Confidential quietly dropped 27 percent, adding another $2.7 million to its haul.

In other box office news, the magnificent Boogie Nights, now in a 30-screen limited release in 13 cities, pulled in a throbbing $27,016 per screen over the weekend, compared to averages around $6000 a screen for this weekend's top two hits. Boogie Nights won't be in a theater near you, unless you are very lucky, until October 31. Hopefully, this won't lead to flaccid box office the way it did for the also-excellent L.A. Confidential.

So, have you listened to my ringing endorsements? Have you seen L.A. Confidential yet? Email me and let me know what you think.

Posted by THB Archive at 09:29 AM |

October 17, 1997

Hollywood Makes Bizarre Bedfellows

As Miramax was busy suing Sony over their use of "from the creator of Scream" to sell I Know What You Did Last Summer, they were bidding to win the rights to make the tri-quel to The Terminator following T-2, one of Sony's biggest hits ever. Speaking of hits, I expect the aforementioned next spoke on the Kevin Williamson Scream-cicle (really cycle, but it doesn't sound as cool), to win the weekend, stealing The Devil's Advocates soul. Both films could cross the $12 million barrier, though Last Summer could be the first really big opening of the fall and toy with the $20 million mark.

The only other wide opening is Fox Mulder in Playing God, which I see as the number five finisher with about $5 million. Outside of that, it should be a pretty standard weekend of slowly-dropping fortunes. In third place, look for Seven Years In Tibet to drop about 25 percent to $7.5 million after word gets out that Brad's hair bleach is more consistent than his Germanic accent. Kiss The Girls should take its first deep cut (20 percent off for $7.2 million) opposite genre openings Devil and Summer

The Second Five should be headed up by In & Out, retaking a lead on Soul Food and passing the $50 million mark with a 30 percent drop to $3.8 million. Soul Food may be getting a little stale, taking sixth with a 35 percent drop to $3.65 million. Also taking the 35 percent hit, Dreamworks first effort, The Peacemaker is about ready to drop it's load on Europe, shooting for seventh spot and another $3.4 million. Disney's implosion-on-the-launch-pad, Rocketman, will do well to drop just 30 percent and take ninth with $3.1 million in just it's second (and kid competition-free, I might add) weekend. In the 10 Spot, L.A. Confidential, making it's likely last stand in the Top 10 with a 20 percent drop to $2.9 million. It's been fun trying to get people to see you, boys. It's hush, hush for now.

Last week, my predictions were challenged. Come on, I can take it! Email me!

Posted by THB Archive at 08:53 PM |

October 10, 1997

In & Out, LA Confidential, Air Force One

It looks like an ugly weekend at the box office. Four new films hit theaters nationwide, but they all look like short-term players. Brad Pitt's Seven Years In Tibet should lead the charge grossing more than $10 million. If Tibet passes the $13 million mark, it will be a shock. If it somehow dips below $8 million, "I told you so!" will ring out in hallways all over town.

Kiss The Girls and Soul Food should be the strongest holdovers on the charts. The girls can kiss off a modest 25 percent for about $10 million and second place and Soul Food should lose about 15 percent off the top for about $7.1 million and fourth spot. Sneaking somewhere in between should be Disney's kid comedy Rocket Man, the only family film to be released in what seems like eons.

In & Out should equivocate its way to fifth with a 20 percent drop to $6.1 million, becoming the first film released since Air Force One (July 25) to pass the $50 million mark domestically. Gang Related should ride to $5 million and sixth place on Tupac's name and a decent ad campaign, though reports are that the movie is a bomb (non-ebonic). The Peacemaker should continue its precipitous drop, with a 40 percent dip to about $4.9 million for seventh place, and looks like it will max out with less than $40 million domestic. Do you know anyone who's still anxious to see it? Me neither.

In its second week of wide release, L.A. Confidential's expected 20 percent fall-off to $3.77 million and the eighth spot has prompted rumors that Warner Bros. is already planning a major re-release in early January.

Keenen shows us why he's now hosting a talk show! Most Wanted takes a dive with about $3 million for ninth place on its way to the 99 cent racks at the video store. And The Edge is on the edge of the Top 10, dropping an unbearable 45 percent to $2.8 million and pushing The Full Monty off the charts. Monty will probably return next week, when The Edge, Most Wanted and Gang Related join U-Turn, The Game, Wishmaster and The Matchmaker as former Top 10 hits.

Don't forget to email me when something hits your hot button.


Posted by THB Archive at 10:30 AM |

October 03, 1997

Movie Theaters Load Up on Product This Weekend

Movie theaters load up on product this weekend, with four new releases and the expansion (finally!) of L.A. Confidential. As a result, the bottom of the top 10 should be significantly more impressive -- last week's number 10 was G.I. Jane with $1.3 million, this week's number 10 should do about $3 million. On the downside, none of the new openers look like major successes. Last week's top three all climbed over $11 million. I don't expect any films to hit the $11 million mark this weekend.

Look for Morgan Freeman's return to chasing psycho killers, Kiss the Girls, to lead the pack with around $10 million. Last week's surprise hit, Soul Food, may well be the most solid returnee, with incredibly positive exit-poll numbers, dropping just 20 percent to take second spot with $9 million. Last week's number one and number two spots should take the average 30 percent dips, leaving The Peacemaker at number three with $8.7 million and In & Out in fourth place with $7.9 million. U-Turn, the latest kink from Oliver Stone, should open in fifth, with a soft $6 to $7 million.

In the bottom half of the order, L.A. Confidential and its crew of Oscar nominees-to-be expands its screen count, actually increasing its gross, but not enough to rise above $5.5 million and a sixth-place finish. The second weekend for The Edge should find Sir Anthony falling over the side, dropping 40 percent for a $4.6 million, eighth place finish. Janeane Garofalo, the studio proclaimed "Funniest Woman In America," couldn't stand watching her face on a 15-foot screen and walked out of the New York premiere of her first starring vehicle, The Matchmaker (more on that in The Hot Button weekender). Four million bucks and eighth place feels about right for the name-pronunciation-challenged comedienne. Michael Douglas stays in The Game for one more week, dropping another 40 percent to $3 million to take the ninth spot. The naked Brits of The Full Monty may be in their final full-frontal assault on the top 10, round out the deci-leaders with $2.5 million or so.

Top 10 drop-outs look to be (in descending order): The Wishmaster, A Thousand Acres and G.I. Jane.

Have a good weekend at the movies and come back Monday to check out the results. You can even mock me via e-mail.

Posted by THB Archive at 08:23 PM |